There was a lot of stuff in the PPP release from Tuesday which I thought deserved another post. Today we’re going to be looking at McCrory’s approval rating and his 2016 reelection race against Roy Cooper, the judicial races of this year (hint: lots of undecideds), and the 2016 presidential election here, where Hillary Clinton is looking very competitive.
McCrory Approval
41% Approve (-2)
46% Disapprove (+1)
An approval spread like that for an incumbent governor usually means about 50/50 odds for reelection. It looks like McCrory is slightly more unpopular than last month. But the big untold story is how much McCrory has recovered from his lows of last year. He’s still not popular, but he doesn’t look like a certain one-termer as he did last September.
Roy Cooper Favorability
33% Favorable (+3)
19% Unfavorable (no change)
Roy Cooper is pretty well-liked, which is not surprising since he’s won election to statewide office on four consecutive occasions. An effort by the McCrory camp to ramp up Cooper’s unfavorables will be necessary to prevent him from occupying the Governor’s Mansion. Right now, they seem to be intent on depicting him as an overambitious, typical politician who is beholden to the far left. (McCrory recently scolded Cooper for referring to legislators as “extremists”, calling him “immature” for doing so. A good move by the governor, making him look very reasonable, moderate, and gubernatorial.)
2016 Gubernatorial Election
44% McCrory (no change)
41% Cooper (-1)
McCrory leads Cooper in the gubernatorial contest by 3 points. But Cooper, despite his many statewide victories, is still unknown to much of the electorate, so the governor should not be comforted by this result. American Insights, another polling firm, finds similar results for the governor. They find his approval rating positive, 43-40, and leading Cooper by two points, 40-38.
Burr Approval
30% Approve (-2)
32% Disapprove (no change)
Despite being a two-term senator, Burr has maintained a low profile in this state. While these approvals aren’t great, they’re pretty good for an incumbent senator in a closely divided state. To beat Burr in 2016, Democrats will need a strong candidate, a strong ground game, and probably a bit of luck. Many observers underestimate Burr’s likability and political skills and if Democrats lack a good candidate this will probably be a second-tier Senate contest in 2016. That is, if Burr runs at all. I’m still skeptical that he will. In case he doesn’t, Republicans could run someone like George Holding and Anthony Foxx might jump back in the race with Burr out.
2016 Presidential Race
45% Jeb Bush (+3)
43% Hillary Clinton (-3)
46% Mike Huckabee (+2)
45% Hillary Clinton (no change)
46% Hillary Clinton (-1)
41% Rand Paul (-1)
45% Hillary Clinton (no change)
38% Chris Christie (no change)
48% Hillary Clinton (+1)
40% Ted Cruz (-1)
The 2016 presidential contest in North Carolina looks to be competitive, with Hillary Clinton leading some of her potential Republican foes and trailing some others. Unfortunately for Republicans, the two candidates leading Hillary at this time are also the least likely to run. Jeb Bush is up 2 and Mike Huckabee is up 1, but I doubt either of those candidates will ultimately pull the trigger.
Paul, Christie, and Cruz, on the other hand, look very likely to run but all trail Clinton here by margins ranging from 5 to 8 points. I don’t see how Christie becomes the nominee if he isn’t clearly the most electable candidate, and right now he, along with Cruz, look like the least electable candidates. If Christie does become the nominee, it’ll be interesting to see how he did it – how he conquered Bridgegate, the problems facing his home state, wrath from the Tea Party conservatives, etc.
More on 2016: the real question is how does Hillary do with the white vote here? There are plenty of whites who voted against Obama both times but would be more open to another Democratic candidate. If Hillary can somehow win 40% of the white vote (as her husband did here in 1992 and 1996) then a path to a Republican victory in North Carolina and nationally looks entirely closed off. Doing better with whites would also help offset a probable drop in African American turnout in 2016. And if someone Democrats can get 2008 and 2012-like turnout from black voters while doing better with whites, then you have a blue NC (and maybe a blue Georgia, too).
Bill Clinton Favorability
49% Favorable
39% Unfavorable
This is actually lower than I expected. North Carolina was never a friendly state for Bill Clinton. Perhaps there is some residual animosity to him from the 1990s? Interestingly, 18% of Romney voters like the former president. There’s also a big gender gap: he’s +21 with women and -3 with men. All age groups like him but positive opinions of Clinton decrease with age. He receives his highest marks in the Triangle, where he’s at 61/30. Eastern NC (43/53) and Charlotte (40/50) are where he’s liked the least.
Supreme Court Race
16% Mark Martin
7% Ola Lewis
NASCAR drivers have not been very successful electorally in North Carolina. We’ll see if Mark Martin breaks the pattern.
Supreme Court Race
21% Sam Ervin
13% Bob Hunter
Ervin is favored here, mostly because we’ve never had a legendary U.S. Senator named Bob Hunter.
Supreme Court Race
13% Cheri Beasley
9% Mike Robinson
I’m guessing a lot of people haven’t followed this race much.
Raising the Minimum Wage Support
57% Support
34% Oppose
57% support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour, 34% oppose. Although the Hagan campaign is trying to make a lot of hay out of Tillis’s opposition to raising the minimum wage (and the minimum wage, period) I doubt this will have much of an effect on the U.S. Senate race. The people opposed have pretty much bought the arguments from business that raising the minimum wage will lead to an increase in unemployment, which is a very persuasive argument. Tillis’s opposition to the minimum wage, however, does lend credence to the narrative being pushed by the Hagan campaign that the Speaker doesn’t care much for the needs of the “little people.” Tillis should respond by telling of his experiences living in a trailer park and working as a short order cook, and probably also working for the minimum wage.
That’s it for now. Disagree with anything in the analysis? Post a comment below!
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
nanasix It’s your opinion, so you are free to offer it, as baseless and hard-to-follow as it is. Mind giving us a source re: Marshall’s so-called “criminal activity”? And if “It’s his job to protect her” is in fact a direct Cooper quote, who is the “his” he’s referring too? Please provide a source for that quote too.
Cooper will do nothing but hurt our state and everything we stand for. When contacted about the criminal activity of the SOS Elaine Marshall, his comment was: “It’s his job to protect her”. Guess I was wrong, I thought it was his job as Atty Gen to protect the citizens of the State. WILL HE DO THE SAME IF APPOINTED GOVERNOR? I’M AFRAID HE WILL!
I’m not buying that a race between McCrory and Cooper is McCrory favorable. By the time 2016 rolls around the state will have a serious deficit and the crazies in the legislature will be pushing it down to the people that can least afford it. That means a lot of working-class folks show up at the polls.
OMG. You actually said “A good move by the governor, making him look very reasonable, moderate, and gubernatorial.” re: McCrory calling Cooper “immature.”
If anything, it make the gov look more “immature” and in-over-his-head when it comes to governing. This is a governor who has a patented way of mentally vetoing bad bills (passed by his buddies in the NCGA), then then of course automatically signing them into law (or letting them become law and then whining about them!).
And if you hadn’t noticed, McCrory NEVER looks gubernatorial EVER. Not even when he puts on his little boy scout shirt when at the podium to advise us all of hurricane risks and counsels us not to wear our “stupid hats.”
McCrory seems to have bottomed out on his unpopularity measure, if the PPP poll is any indicator. But there is nothing but potentially major stumbling blocks in front of him over the next year or two as Nov 2016 approaches.
There is another long session of the NCGA, and unless its supermajority goes bye-bye this fall (unlikely), he’ll sign more silly and/or regressive bills into law (because that’s all he knows how to do), and any bills that he vetoes will be overriden by his GOP lords (which will make him look as weak as always).
If he doesn’t expand Medicaid, that issue will work against him, and if he does expand it, his reasons are likely to seem inane (“Medicaid is no longer broken due to Wos’ great administrative skills”), or inhumane (not so much about the needy getting healthcare, but more about the fiscal benefits to the state budget), or just plain and unnecessarily delayed for 3 years.
If Solarbees don’t show a clean-up to Jordan Lake; if there are difficulties at the polls this fall due to the new voter act; if the state revenue deficit gets truly huge (one forecast has it a big as $1.2B); if the courts finally find several contested GOP 2013 laws unconstitutional; if NC can’t truly show a Carolina Comeback (hey, he coined the term) and continues to lag other states in economic revival; if DHHS continues to prove itself to be a management disaster; if DENR is found guilty of consorting with Duke-E too closely by the federal investigation (and if there’s another ash spill, or if the bigger bills consumers will pay for the ash remediation gets voters riled); and if the teacher exodus continues, with many of them bashing the GOP as they go, he won’t be helped in his re-election campaign.