A Good Poll for Tillis

by | Jul 28, 2014 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, Poll Analysis, Polling, US Senate | 2 comments

Over the weekend, North Carolina Republicans hoping to unseat Kay Hagan found, for the first time in a long time, some good news: a new poll showing Thom Tillis in the lead. It’s only a 1-point lead, statistically a tie, but it’s the first poll in two months to show Tillis ahead, and actually the first non-partisan poll on the NC Senate race since April.

The survey comes from the Internet polling firm YouGov, which partnered with the New York Times and CBS to conduct the poll. They surveyed 36 states with competitive races, North Carolina among them. Tillis leads Hagan, 48% to 47%. For Congress, NC voters favor the GOP, 48%-39% (Democrats won the popular vote for Congress in North Carolina in 2012). Even without leaners, Tillis leads, 38%-37%. Only 2% say they will opt for a third candidate. Sean Haugh is not included by name and therefore loses some support.

But a word of caution: most of the surveys seem to have a Republican-friendly bent. Some of the results of other states wildly differ from what other polling firms are showing. It is a data point in Tillis’s favor, but it is only one data point, and the aggregate of the polling still shows Hagan with a lead.

What if we take the result at face value? Then Kay Hagan should be very worried. Tillis has had a very difficult summer and has had to deal with a long legislative session; he should be at the trough of his support. And yet he still leads the incumbent Democrat.

My take on the race, for what it’s worth, is that Hagan has a slight lead, but this is due to a number of factors, all in her favor, which are temporal or could be temporal. First, the legislative session, which is dragging down Tillis’s numbers, he may be able to recover from them once the legislature has adjourned, as he did last year. Next, the artificial support most surveys are showing for Sean Haugh, who draws disproportionately from Tillis. And last but not least, the possibility of an enthusiasm gap which will favor Republicans but will not show up in the polls until the fall. From these things Tillis’s campaign can draw comfort. But, a lead is still a lead, a strong sign for a Democratic incumbent whom many observers felt would be a dead duck by now.

Crosstabs:

White voters
58% Tillis
32% Hagan

African American voters
77% Hagan
12% Tillis

Hispanics
47% Tillis
41% Hagan

Men
51% Tillis
40% Hagan

Women
49% Hagan
39% Tillis

Democrats
88% Hagan
7% Tillis

Republicans
87% Tillis
7% Hagan

Independents
54% Tillis
32% Hagan

Averaging the Polls
Hagan – 43%
Tillis – 38%
Haugh – 6%

The average is based on PPP, Civitas, and the latest poll by YouGov. Differences in the polling (registered vs. likely voters, leaners vs. no leaners, referring to Haugh by name, etc.) might skew the result. Civitas should come out with a new poll soon.

2 Comments

  1. Smithson

    If Tillis gets 12% of African American voters and 47% of Hispanic voters, I’ll eat my hat. And if there is an enthusiasm gap, it is more likely to be +Dems.

    This poll is so skewed it looks like something from Rasmussen.

  2. ModerateDem

    I am sure this race will remain very tight until end, however this poll appears to be off based on the crosstabs. I have a hard time believing that Tillis is beating her with Indy’s by 12%. Especially odd is that Tillis would beat Hagan with Hispanics, let alone by 6% or that Tillis pulls 12% of African American voters. Race is and will be super close, but this poll is flawed.

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