Undecided voters in the U.S. Senate race. For the politically astute, such as those who read this blog, the concept is hard to understand. Yet they exist. Some of them know a little bit about the candidates and are conflicted, some of them don’t know anything right now but will start paying attention in the fall and will surely vote in November, while others don’t know anything, couldn’t care less, and won’t be part of the electorate in November.
With that in mind, here’s a look at who PPP says are the undecided voters right now. Because of the small sample size and the fact that it was a registered voters poll, no one should get excited or depressed about the composition of this group. But here’s the breakdown, by a number of variables. No comment is necessary.
Their 2012 vote
45% Romney
40% Obama
15% Someone else/Don’t remember
Ideology
36% Moderate
32% Somewhat conservative
14% Somewhat liberal
10% Very conservative
10% Very liberal
Sex
Female – 70%
Male – 30%
Party
45% Democrat
29% Republican
26% Independent/Other
Race
72% White
20% Black
8% Other
Age
33% 46 to 65
25% 18 to 29
23% 30 to 45
19% Older than 65
Location
Internet dwellers – 38%
336 – 14%
828 – 13%
919 – 11%
252 – 9%
704 – 9%
910 – 7%
The percentages might not add up to 100% in every case. And, it is possible I made some errors in the calculations. If you want to check the numbers, the poll and the crosstabs are available here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_722925.pdf.
In the end, this little exercise doesn’t mean much, especially at this point in time. But it is a reminder that there are a lot of undecided voters in this race, and winning them is going to be the key to victory for either Hagan or Tillis come November.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
“winning them is going to be the key to victory for either Hagan or Tillis”
And what is going to be the key to victory for Haugh, o politically astute writer of this blog? Or have you already rigged that possibility away?
I suspect a poll that asked people to rate the ballotted candidates with 1-2-3 preferences would show Haugh no lower than 2nd.
I would be willing to bet $1000 that Haugh gets no more than 3% of the vote.
I’m not obliged to directly respond, publicly or privately, to your initiation of a wager proposal. You the anti-Libertarian side, not me, are the ones making a claim. That Sean Haugh will definitely lose. Let me keep it unilateral on you then. And you would not have to give anything to me.
How about you just pledge to donate all your net worth to LPNC if Sean Haugh wins?
That is a level of confidence from you that would impress me.