A Look Back at the State House Races (Part 2)

by | Nov 17, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC House Races, NC Politics, NCGA | 1 comment

This is a look back at the results of the North Carolina State House races. The first part is here.

House District 46: Waddell (D, incumbent) vs. Jones (R)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Democratic
Final result: D+7

Republican Jones ran a good campaign here, criticizing Waddell as an absentee representative, but it was not enough in this very Democratic seat. Give it time and maybe its strong Democratic heritage will subside.

House District 49: Pendleton (R, incumbent) vs. Hanchette (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Pure Toss-Up
Final Result: R+3

Pendleton was appointed to this seat after Rep. Jim Fulghum passed away in July. Pendleton proved to be a strong candidate, though his margin of victory was smaller than Fulghum’s in 2012. There was a pro-Democratic mini-wave in Wake County, but not enough for Hanchette, whose advocacy at the Moral Monday protests may have hurt her in the end.

House District 51: Stone (R, incumbent) vs. Salmon (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Tilts Democratic
Final Result: D+8
***DEM PICK-UP***

The result of this district proves that a strong Democratic candidate who positions himself as a moderate can still win over old-school rural Democrats. Salmon walloped Stone here by 8 points in a district that went for Thom Tillis, whose performance in Lee County wasn’t that stellar to begin with. There were local factors at play here, with Lee County residents angry over Stone’s vote to fast-track fracking. Notably, this is the only seat in a non-urban county that Democrats managed to pick up. Rep.-elect Salmon could turn out to be another Paul Tine, a Democrat who manages to get reelected in a seat he ostensibly shouldn’t be holding.

House District 53: Lewis (R, incumbent) vs. Byerly (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Republican
Final Result: R+11

Not much to say about this one. There’s a strong base of Democrats here but the Republican base is even bigger. The Republicans are only going to lose this one in a Democratic wave election, and even that might not be sufficient.

House District 63: Ross (R, incumbent) vs. Baltutis (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Republican
Final Result: R+14

Another seat that would only be potentially competitive in a massive Democratic wave. That means an anti-legislature backlash everywhere in the state, not just in the Research Triangle and Asheville.

House District 88: Bryan (R, incumbent) vs. Storch (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Not profiled
Final result: R+11

I didn’t profile this race. Maybe I should have, but again it would take a huge Democratic wave to be competitive. Maybe in a few years Democrats will be more competitive in the Charlotte suburban districts like these, but we’re not there yet.

House District 92: Jeter (R, incumbent) vs. Bradford (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Leans Republican
Final result: R+5

Jeter is now the only Republican House member in a seat won by Obama in both 2008 and 2012. He’ll probably face a very tough race in 2016. Maybe third time’s the charm for Bradford?

House District 93: Jordan (R, incumbent) vs. Counts (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Republican
Final result: R+6

This district comprises two counties – Ashe and Watauga. Jordan lost Watauga just barely but won handily in Ashe, resulting in a 53-47 win. A winning Democrat needs to do better in Watauga County, which behaves less like a “college county” in midterm elections. Jordan or any other Republican should still be favored in a presidential year, though.

House District 115: Ramsey (R, incumbent) vs. Ager (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Tilts Democratic
Final Result: D+2
***DEM PICK-UP***

Ramsey got caught up in the anti-Republican wave in Buncombe. He could return for a rematch in 2016 if he wishes. This district was just barely won by Romney back in 2012, so it’s not an easy hold for either party. Ager will be well-positioned if the Democratic trend in Buncombe County continues.

House District 116: Moffitt (R, incumbent) vs. Turner (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Pure Toss-Up
Final Result: D+4
***DEM PICK-UP***

This district, like the rest of Buncombe, is becoming less rural, more suburban, and more Asheville-like, so Moffitt’s anti-Asheville message may not have resonated. Democrat Brian Turner proved to be a good retailer campaigner. It’ll be interesting to see what happens here over the next two years. Does continued GOP control of the legislature help Democrats in urban districts, like Turner and Adcock, who can position themselves as moderates in a hard-right legislature?

House District 118: Presnell (R, incumbent) vs. Hicks (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Leans Democratic ***WRONG CALL***
Final result: R+2

Of all the districts profiled, this is the only indisputably blown call. Democrats seemed confident of Presnell going down and their optimism seemed grounded in polling. I noted in the post that Presnell’s initial victory was a surprise and she could surprise again, so maybe it shouldn’t have been a surprise that she surprised us this time. Time to stop underestimating Rep. Presnell. Also, the outcome of this district is pretty much proof that urban areas reacted much differently to rural areas to the Republican legislature. If there was truly a backlash against the legislature in every region of the state, this would be one of the first districts to fall to the Democrats. It didn’t.

House District 119: Queen (D, incumbent) vs. Clampitt (R)
PoliticsNC rating: Not profiled
Final result: D+5

Another district that I should have profiled that I did not. Queen has strong personal popularity and this district is an old-school rural Democratic one, but we all know how they’ve been trending lately. Once Queen retires, Republicans have a strong chance of taking this one, and maybe even before then.

1 Comment

  1. Loyal reader

    District 49 should’ve been Leans Republican. It traces a ribbon of elite-conservative neighborhoods through center-left Raleigh. Pendleton was well suited to these voters, as a hard-core anti-taxer who doesn’t come off as a nut. Inside-the-beltliners prize stability.

    Hanchette was a terrible fit. She was cringe-inducingly bland on a personal level while managing to be controversial anyway, due to ideology. An anti-income inequality crusade? On Saint Mary’s Sreet? Whatever.

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!