A scary situation

by | Aug 19, 2016 | Editor's Blog, NC Politics, US Senate | 18 comments

Republicans across the country are starting worry about Richard Burr. For most of the cycle, GOP insiders seemed to think that he would be alright. He had a large war chest and has proven to be hard campaigner with few high negatives. Now, though, Donald Trump threatens to bring everyone down with him.

North Carolina is starting to look like a “perfect storm,” as one conservative publication called it. Not only is Trump in trouble in the state, but Governor Pat McCrory is also struggling. He faces a strong opponent in Attorney Roy Cooper and has found himself on the wrong side of a number of polarizing issues, including HB2. Between the so-called “bathroom bill” and recent court decisions about redistricting and voting rights, the Democratic base is energized.

Burr is not a strong personality and is relatively undefined in the state despite more than 20 years in Washington. He’ll need to separate himself from the pack somehow to fend off Deborah Ross, who has turned out to be a much stronger candidate than many people expected. She’s out-raised Burr for two quarters in a row and a recent poll has her leading by two.

Two years ago, the US Senate race between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis had been raging for months by this point in the cycle. This year, Burr and his allied third-party groups are just starting to run ads. They’re betting that people will be tuning in late to the Senate race and they will start talking to them when they do. That may be true, but they’ve been paying attention to the presidential contest for more than a year and the election is looking to be more about the GOP nominee, bathrooms, and voting rights than any of the issues Burr would like to talk about.

To jolt the conversation, expect Burr to try scare tactics. He’s chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and he can tell us a lot about ISIS infiltration and terrorist operations that threaten our safety. It’s also what Trump may be talking about going down the stretch. Besides, it worked in 2014. Thom Tillis snatched victory from Kay Hagan when ISIS and ebola briefly threatened to end humanity.

The fall campaign is just beginning and the environment is still fluid. Trump is just starting to run his first general election ads. While McCrory and Cooper have been slugging for a while, neither Ross nor Burr has spent substantial money. The electorate hasn’t tuned in completely yet, aside from watching the Trump show, which is losing ratings fast.

To win, Republicans like Burr will likely need to get out of Trump’s shadow. They will need to run a parallel campaign that strikes a balance between separating themselves from the presidential campaign without alienating the base that made Trump the nominee. It’s a tough balance and if Trump alienates enough voters to suppress the GOP electorate, close races in states like North Carolina will probably break Democratic. Still, we’ve got another few weeks before the situation baked in.

 

18 Comments

  1. TY Thompson

    “Donald Trump threatens to bring everyone down with him.”

    Maybe, maybe not. I’ve seen an internal suggesting Trump is up +4 in NC but even if that isn’t true, it IS true that Burr is in a tight race. The real reason for that isn’t in public discussion and has little to do with Trump. Hint: Take a look at Burr’s performance in the Spring primary versus, say, that of Pat McCrory. A big chunk of Burr’s party doesn’t like him. In some counties, he didn’t clear much better than 50% against no-name opponents. Some conservatives even think that getting rid of Burr will serve as a warning to Tillis to the right.

    • TY Thompson

      A warning to Tillis to move to the right, that is.

  2. Ebrun

    Wish you could have been at a Republican HQs opening in my part of the state today. Not even the most oblivious liberal would mistake those in attendance as being part of the “country club set.”

    Mostly white working class folks along with a few local business owners, a number of retirees and many devout church goers. Most all were party regulars with few pretensions of status or snobbery. There was no sign of bigotry or talk of racial animus. The only negative that I could see was a standoffishness toward an outsider who they did not know. But aside from that, these folks are patriotic citizens who represent the quintensential American middle class rather than the unfavorable stereotype of Republicans that Mr. Mills and other liberal posters on this blog try to,portray.

    • Jay Ligon

      Blue collar, patriotic, devout, working class, Republicans without any racial bias? I think you accidentally attended a Democratic rally. You should have your GPS checked. Republicans call those people “suckers” and “losers.”

      • Ebrun

        OMG, D.g., you have really hit a new low today. Demeaning honest, hard-working, patriotic North Carolians because they do not adhere to your radical political views is about as nasty and mean-spirited as anything I’ve seen posted on this very far left blog. Your invective portrays a level of intolerance and hate that should be denounced by everyone including all fair-minded Democrats.

      • Ebrun

        What a sophomoric reply. If you have nothing profound to offer, best to refrain from commenting.

        • Ebrun

          Did you mean bite me,D.g.? No thanks, you’re not my type. BTW, my comment about a sophomoric reply was directed to Jay. Should have made that more clear. Your comments usually don’t reach that standard.

    • Troy

      Cannon fodder. Lambs to the slaughter. People who, for whatever pathetic reason choose to vote for candidates that do not have their best interests at heart. The only interest Republicans have among common folk is their vote. After that, they no longer matter. Because if they did, they wouldn’t lobby and vote against those folks when it comes to healthcare, wages, collective bargaining, social security and medicare, giving tax breaks to the wealthy while shifting the tax burden down on them even harder.

      No Ebrun, you’re wrong. You can pack up Mom, apple pie and Chevrolet and peddle it to those same poor people that have already bought it. Which of course they will, since it’s Mom, apple pie, and Chevrolet. All those icons of Americana mean absolutely squat to the people pushing those images…unless it brings in a vote. And that’s what it’s all about. No right, no wrong, just votes.

      Unfavorable portrayal? For someone who works for a living, how is being a Republican favorable? From Herbert Hoover right on through to George Walker Bush. When has the middle class prospered under Republican administrations? My father was a young man during the Hoover years and those afterward trying to recover from the aftermath of his administration. Yes I’m quite familiar with the economic and sociological academic arguments of that period. Kinda hard though to look at things academically on an empty stomach. But I digress. So I got to hear all about Republicans as well as who and what the stood for. Working people aren’t it.

      They haven’t changed. Not from this day to that. They’ve polished up their message and added a few things to draw the feeble of mind in but they haven’t changed; not in the abstract. They are still for big money and big corporations.

      Democrats changed though. Every niche issue and splinter group with at least 2..3…4…5, five people in it the party took up their cause. The party became enlightened and drifted away as being champions of the working people and took on environment, special interest groups by the score, social equity, and let the bulk of their support and supporters drifting away from the boat. Republicans polished up their message and picked some of them up.

      But I stay. Because I know that despite what some describe as Northeastern elitism, Democrats still are the party of the common man. Bernie Sanders proved that. Look at the people leading the Republican party. And convince me they know what it is to work with their hands for a day, a week, or a lifetime. You can’t do it. You don’t have that many words in your vocabulary nor do they exist in the English language.

  3. Randolph Voller

    If you recall, the State Democratic Party filed a complaint with the Board of Elections regarding the group, known as “Carolina Rising”, which was run by current NCGOP Executive Director, Dallas Woodhouse.

    The NCDP also filed complaints against actions (mailers) by Americans for Prosperity that misled potential voters.

    As for Burr and McCrory they are saddled with an unstable Trump campaign at the top of the ticket and a NCGA that has been unduly influenced by extreme elements of the GOP.

    Even though McCrory should be disqualified this fall for his lap dog behavior regarding Duke Energy, insistence on shrinking democracy and bull headed resistance to expanding the ACA in North Carolina his real albatross is BB 2.

    Governor “stand Pat” should “tattoo” HB 2 to his inner thigh as a reminder of why public policy should not be driven by knee jerk, ideological reactionaries as opposed to reasonable folks in both parties who would have monitored/audited the Charlotte ordinance for at least a year before deciding if a legislative response was prudent and/or needed.

    The real “Carolina Miracle” is the fact that his haphazard leadership and overly ideological allies/chums in the NCGA have not done even more damage to our democracy, implicit social contract and state brand.

    They have sure tried, however…

    • Troy

      Complaints have little effect once the damage is done;e.g.; those mailers are out and circulating. I have no doubt about the legitimacy for the complaint, but once that crap is out there, it makes an even bigger mess to clean up. Besides, it only adds to the Republican mold concerning political correctness when they say, “oh look, they can’t win, so they complain about us…” even though they would be first to cry foul too if the shoe were on the other foot.

      Republicans operate with a strict Country Club mentality. Either you’re a member or your not. It’s small, compact, and all the players know each other. Everyone else is a wannabe or a servant to; there is no equal. They serve themselves first and each other second. They aren’t looking to grow membership either, unless you have something to give them, then they’re your fair weather friend until they get it or you have no more to give.

      Paddy thinks himself to be the consummate politician. He’s back on TV smoozing the masses with his “truth” ad. I’m sure he knows the truth; he isn’t telling it. But there are people out there that believe it…however sad that might be. The even sadder thing is, they vote.

  4. Mike Leonard

    Burr is a useless empty suit. Let’s get rid of him in November, along with McCrory & Drumpf!

  5. A D Reed

    I don’t know of any Republican who’s a true patriot and who would put country ahead of party and personal self-interest. There used to be many of them, but not these days. Not one.

    It’s not a new phenomenon. Richard Nixon committed treason by sending secret envoys (reputedly including GHW Bush, who then became his CIA director) to Paris and Saigon to undermine the Johnson Administration’s ongoing peace talks with the Vietnamese. LBJ said it was treason in a conversation with Everett Dirkson, but felt that if he made Nixon’s behavior public he would be accused of “politicizing” the negotiations during the election campaign. So he kept his mouth shut, and Humphrey lost and Nixon won, and where did that get us?

    Twelve years later Ronald Reagan did almost the exact same thing, by sending a secret envoy (rumored to be GHW Bush) to Paris to undermine the Carter Administration’s negotiations to release the hostages held by Iran. The deal was that if the Iranians didn’t come to terms with Carter, Reagan would win, and if he won he’d be more “generous” to Iran. And Carter lost, Reagan won (helped by Nightline’s Iran-hostage-crisis coverage every night). No Democrat would charge the GOP with treason (again) because they’d be accused of politics as usual, the hostages got on a plane one minute after 12 on Reagan’s Inauguration Day, and they got away with it again. And where did 12 years of Reaganism get us?

    The GOP are not patriots. There’s not one of them — including the wimpy “moderates” like Susan Collins of Maine — who ever have or will put the good of the nation above their own. Why should anyone expect Burr to be any different?

    BTW, the reason Hagan lost — besides being a lousy campaigner — was that in the last two weeks of the campaign the Tillis forces got a secret infusion of $5 million in illegal, unreported campaign contributions to an “independent” PAC run by the former chair of his party

  6. Bubba

    Gee, Richard wouldn’t use “insider information” for his own benefit, WOULD he?

    Of course, he DID walk straight from a Senate Finance Committee meeting that warned of an impending financial meltdown to a telephone, where he called his wife and urged her to go to their bank and “Get all our money out, honey!” He later BOASTED about this.

  7. Jay Ligon

    Do you know any way to edit your post on this site?

  8. Stan

    My prayer is that trump sinks like a rock and takes burr right down with him and lest I forget that includes the idiot mccrory.
    You could put all 3 of them plus the other idiot tillis in a bag, shake it up and what will you have, a bag of dung that should be mixed with whale dung.

  9. Jay Ligon

    Sen. Burr along with his Republican colleagues betrayed the United States when he signed the letter to the leaders of Iran. He attempted to undermine the negotiations to reduce weapons of mass destruction including nuclear weapons aimed at the United States. In her anti-Obama fervor, the senator forgot that partisan disputes end at the border. He betrayed the American people choosing the Republican Party over the interests of the United States.

    He told the Iranians that they should ignore peace talks because the Republicans in Congress hold the real power in America. I’m not sure what it means to be a good Republican any more, but Sen. Burr is not a good American.

    • Jay Ligon

      His fervor

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