About those new districts

by | Aug 22, 2017 | Editor's Blog, Redistricting | 11 comments

In drawing new maps for the North Carolina legislature, Republicans chose division over unity. They drew maps that keep the majority of districts non-competitive. That’s ironic for the party that insists competition is healthy for everything from commerce to education. They’re clearly more interested in maintaining power than healing the divide in this country or addressing the extremism that keeps our government dysfunctional.

According the News & Observer, only ten of the fifty state Senate seats will be competitive next year and only 19 of the 120 state House seats will be in play. The rest of the seats would only be competitive in primary elections. In many districts, that means the most conservative Republican or most liberal Democrat would get elected. That makes compromise more difficult. I guess with a veto proof majority, though, Republicans don’t worry much about compromise or, for that matter, democracy.

Here’s my bet. Within hours of approving the new districts along party lines, the Democrats sue to have them thrown out. The Fourth Circuit will quickly determine that the new districts are unconstitutional since Republicans’ criteria for the new districts did not consider race as required by the Voting Rights Act and also protected incumbents who were elected in unconstitutional districts. The judges will then appoint somebody to draw them for the 2018 elections.

If that happens, Democrats will have a decent chance of taking control of the legislature if the year continues to shape up like it is now. Trump is broadly unpopular and Republicans in Congress can’t pass any significant legislation. Historically, the first midterm election following the a new president is bad for the party holding the White House. With districts that roughly reflect the make up the state, Democrats will have an opportunity to do well.

11 Comments

  1. THEODORE

    THE REPUBLICANS IN THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE PLACING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ABOVE THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE OF NORTH CAROLINA. THEY ALSO ARE ESTABLISHING WHITE SUPREMACY AND WHITE POWER AND WHITE PRIVELEGE AT THE TOP OF THE PRIORITIES IN NORTH CAROLINA.

    IF THIS ONLY EFFECTED THE STATE, WHICH IS NOT ALIVE PERSON, BUT NO, IT EFFECTS EACH AND EVERY INDIVIDUAL RESIDENT OF THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA AND EACH AND EVERYONE OF THEIR RIGHTS.

    THE DAMN REPUBLICANS DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE POOR AND MIDDLE CLASS MEN AND WOMEN AND CHILDREN IN NORTH CAROLINA, ALL THEY CARE ABOUT IS MAINTAINING THE WHITE POWER TO SUCCESSFULLY SUPPORT THE WANTS AND NEEDS OF THE 1.0% OF THE RICH AND POWERFUL WHITE CONTRIBUTORS THAT THEY HAVE SOLD THEIR SOULS TO.

    Republicans have a very clear plan to hold power in the state while reducing the checks and balances that are designed to prevent consolidation of power. Gerrymandering and voter suppression laws are key to keeping their legislative majorities. Since Roy Cooper took power, they’ve made a concerted effort to reduce the power of governor’s office. They’ve also been trying to stack the courts with partisan Republicans since so much of their legislation has been found unconstitutional.

    Republicans in North Carolina didn’t leave the new districts to chance. No, they paid a consultant to draw the new maps. His goal wasn’t to make the maps more fair. His goal was to draw as many safe Republican districts as possible. In other words, he’s here to limit democracy and he was paid with taxpayer money.

    An analysis of the new legislative maps show the GOP mapmaker has drawn districts that would protect the Republican majority even if Democrats won with a 9% majority. That’s not democracy.

    “There is strong evidence that RACE was the only nonnegotiable criterion and that traditional redistricting principles were subordinated to race,” 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Roger Gregory wrote for the court. “In fact, the overwhelming evidence in this case shows that a (black voting-age population) percentage floor, or a racial quota, was established in both CD 1 and CD 12. And, that floor could not be compromised.” ESTABLISHING WHITE POWER AND PRIVELEGE IN NORTH CAROLINA.

    WRITE TO THIS FEDERAL JUDGE (Thomas D. Schroeder of Federal District Court in Winston-Salem,) (4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Roger Gregory) (U.S. District Judge Max Cogburn) (U.S. District Judge District Judge William Osteen Jr.) AND ASK THEM TO CREATE A FEDERAL COMMISSION TO REDRAW ALL OF THE VOTING DISTRICTS IN NORTH CAROLINA, AND TO PROVIDE THE FOLLOWING ABSOLUTE GUIDELINES TO ACCOMPLISH THE TASK.

    [1.] USE A COMPUTER SOFTWARE PROGRAM TO DRAW DISTRICT LINES.

    [2.] SPECIFY THAT ALL VOTING DISTRICT LINES “MUST BE” DRAWN (NORTH AND SOUTH) AND (EAST AND WEST) THE ONLY LEGAL EXCEPTION SHALL BE IF A OCEAN, LAKE OR RIVER IS USED AS A DISTRICT BOUNDRY.

    3.] SPECIFY THAT EVERY DISTRICT MUST HAVE THE SAME NUMBER OF VOTERS IN IT. PLUS OR MINUS 5%.
    [4.] ESTABLISH THAT ONCE THE COURT HAS APPROVED THE REDRAWN VOTING DISTRICT BOUNDRIES FOR THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA THAT THEY MAY NOT BE CHANGED WITHOUT FEDERAL COURT APPROVAL.

  2. Jay Ligon

    Democrats underestimate the fervor of the ambitions of Republicans. It is naive in the extreme to believe that Democrats will take back large numbers of seats in the legislature with a surge in anti-Republican enthusiasm. Republicans have built a firewall around their themselves to prevent democracy as if it were a virus threatening their hegemony.

    Republicans make up only 25% of registered voters in North Carolina, but Republican state senators are 70% of the General Assembly (34 of 50) and Republican Representatives are 62% of the House of Representative (74 of 120), 100% of the United States Senate (2 of 2), and 77% of the Representatives in the House (10 of 13).

    How does a minority party dominate state and federal politics?

    There was a plan hatched by Republican strategists 8 years ago. It worked. It was cheap, and it has been almost bullet-proof.

    In the playbook of Republican dirty tricks, gerrymandering has been the most effective, least costly and the least illegal, except in North Carolina where the GOP chose to press their advantage using race.

    The Republicans took a thumping after the Bush Administration ran the U.S. economy and, by extension, the world economy, into a ditch, and nearly over a steep cliff. With our financial sector teetering on the brink of implosion, millions of homes in foreclosure and jobs disappearing, voters were nervous in 2008. In addition to the bungled economy, there were bloody, expensive never-ending wars in the Middle East.

    Americans ejected Republicans from Senate and House seats in large numbers. For a few months, Democrats held a super-majority in the Senate. They had to wait a long time for Sen. Al Franken to take his seat, and a few months later, Sen. Ted Kennedy died. The Senate was filibuster-proof only a few months. Obama had a majority in the House for a couple of years. While the Democrats were high-fiving each other, Republicans made plans to take over the United States.

    A project called REDMAP began immediately after the election of Barack Obama in 2008. It was gerrymandering on steroids. Personal information was available to anyone who wanted to know something about you. Computer hardware had advanced to the point where it could analyze vast amounts of personal information quickly and cheaply. The job of drawing district maps became extremely precise. The map makers could choose which voters would be allowed to vote for which candidate with such precision that they could make most races non-competitive.

    Republicans poured millions into state house and senate races because most states allow the party in power to draw the district boundaries. Along came the 2010 census and Republicans transformed the state legislative maps. The states races were cheap. They took seat after seat. In all, Republicans took nearly 1,000 seats across the country and were able to shape legislative districts.

    They drew maps around their candidates and packed Democrats into a few districts. For about $30 million, the Republican Party took over the United States and the future of the country until 2020. Across the country, the GOP minority began to write legislation affecting the majority.

    We will just get out the vote, you say? Well, they have an answer. Keep black people from voting. Voter suppression works has prevented hundreds of thousands of voters from voting. For good measure, put the broken voting machines in Democratic districts, close polls near Democrats, shut down campus polling places, make the lines extremely long, get rid of voters through voter ID requirements and intimidation. If the laws preventing voting are found to be unconstitutional, write more just like them. It takes time for cases to get to the Supreme Court.

    Gerrymandering and voter suppression are just two of the nasty tricks the Republicans deploy. They have a large playbook and a lot of dark money. They came for your democracy and they took it away from you. They aren’t going to give it back without a fight. Republicans are pretty pleased with themselves. They are a minority making the rules for the rest of us. Don’t expect them to start playing fair. They turn the page and use a different dirty trick. It’s gotten them this far. Why wouldn’t they?

    • Jay Ligon

      35 of 50

    • Independent

      Mr. Ligon- being the minority party in voter registration does not explain why NC has 2 GOP Senators that are elected statewide along with a Democratic Governor. Voter suppression did not elect Senator Burr in 2016 unless you are prepared to acknowledge it also elected Democrat Roy Cooper governor.

      Democrats do not have a message that appeals to voters outside of identity groups and it has caught up with them. This is not just specific to NC, but look at the losses Ds have suffered across the nation since 2008.

      Ds in NC and elsewhere would be wise to study Governor Cooper’s campaign for how to appeal across demographic groups with a unifying inclusive message. When Ds begin to do this on a more consistent basis, you will see them have more success at the ballot box.

      • Jay Ligon

        Your point is well taken. The Democrats have not done as well in messaging as Republicans. However, you must understand that your vote is being taken away from you by technology, Citizens United and racial segregation.

        There isn’t any question that REDMAP remade America. That is why, as you pointed out, the trend was similar across the country. It was a project launched by the national GOP using funding from Karl Rove’s GPS, from our Koch Brothers wannabe the Popes, and other deep pockets.

        Much has been written on the subject. To understand what happened in North Carolina, you should look at the numbers. North Carolina was targeted along with Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as a soft target for the Republican Party in 2009. They saw that these states could become swing states, and they were right. They found races in each state that needed a little help. The success of the project was surprising even to the Republicans who created it. They boasted about it in the Wall Street Journal.

        In North Carolina in 2008, there were 2,060,058 votes cast for Democrats; in 2012, there were fewer votes cast for Democrats – 2,007,139. In the same years, there were 1,432,280 votes cast for Republicans in 2008, and 1,494,643 for Republicans in 2012. Democrats cast around 55,000 fewer votes in 2012 than in 2008, and Republicans cast around 65,000 more votes in 2012 than in 2008. North Carolinians cast about 3.5 million votes in both 2008 and 2012.

        In 2008, Republicans won five House seats and Democrats won eight districts, even though Republicans got more than 600,000 fewer votes. They received slightly more than 41% of the vote, and they won 38% of the seats. No system is perfect, but Republicans won seats proportional to their votes in 2008, more or less.

        In 2012, Republicans won ten House seats and Democrats won three. The Republicans now represent 76% of the House seats compared to the Democrats holding 24%. Democratic votes were 57% of the total vote. In spite of casting more votes than Republicans by a huge margin in 2012, Democrats won only three districts. That outcome is not proportional to the vote. Not even close.

        How did it happen? The Democratic districts were packed with Democrats. So the Democrats won by huge margins. The minority party was willing to give away a few seats to keep the lion’s share. A message people liked would only make a massive win a little more massive.

        The Republicans won more seats by thin margins, and the Democrats won a few seats by huge margins. The map drawers packed Democrats into a few districts. That is the effect of gerrymandering, the lines the Republicans drew around the districts.

        In North Carolina, the majority party controls both the local boards of elections and they control the redistricting maps.

        It is true that gerrymandering had nothing to do with statewide races. The Senate and the Governor’s races were not affected by gerrymandering, but voter suppression has a significant impact on voter turnout and vast sums of dark money have flooded North Carolina’s GOP which has been uniquely receptive to it.

        In North Carolina, the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are Gerrymandering, Dark Money, Right Wing Media and Voter Suppression. Where races are close, massive dark money floods the races so that Republicans can eke out wins, as did Tillis and Burr. Where races are close, preventing thousands of black people from voting makes enough of a difference to change our world.

        Republicans do not want to win big in all elections. They win small in a lot of elections. That is how our world is structured. Messaging is important, but the district lines have been challenged in several elections since 2010 and they have held off democracy every time.

        The Democratic upswing in 2008 was a result of disastrous conditions in the economy and an exhaustion with a war that was fought in the wrong country. Those conditions are not usually in front of voters. You cannot overcome the math of the district maps with a nice message. The Republicans have a lot more money than you do, and they will outspend you 10 to 1 when they need to. Your message gets lost.

        As long as North Carolinians allow the candidates to choose their voters, elected officials will decide races, not the other way around.

        • Jay Ligon

          Correction:

          In 2012, Republicans won nine House seats and Democrats won four. The Republicans now represent 76% of the House seats compared to the Democrats holding 24%. Democratic votes were 57% of the total vote. In spite of casting more votes than Republicans by a huge margin in 2012, Democrats won only three districts. That outcome is not proportional to the vote. Not even close

  3. Kicking Butt

    It is my understanding that the issue of political gerrymandering has not been raised in the current 4th Circuit case. A Wisconsin federal court by a 2 to 1 vote held that the Wisconsin legislature’s reapportionment had violated the First Amendment and equal rights protection. The US Supreme Court will be considering that case in its Fall Term.

    The lower court used a formula to determine whether or not the legislative districts were unfairly and unconstitutionally skewed in favor of the Republicans.

    Years back Justice Kennedy pondered the question of whether or not there was a standard to measure the burden of the apportionment and determine whether or not an unconstitutional burden existed on a party’s voters. It is conceivable that the formula used by the Wisconsin court may allow the Supreme Court, including Justice Kennedy as the key 5th vote, to throw out Wisconsin’s political reapportionment as being unconstitutional. The formula would likewise show that North Carolina’s reapportionment was unconstitutional.

    Hopefully, an amendment to the present case’s pleadings can be made to present the issue of political gerrymandering to the court. Such a claim would require additional evidentiary hearings, but in the event that the Supreme Court sets standards for what is unconstitutional gerrymandering, then it would preserve that question for the Fourth Circuit.

  4. Augustwolf

    Have you had a mental health checkup recently, because based on this LSD induced theory, you really really need one. You are doing a disservice to your readers. Do you not realize how far out of touch you are with what folks are actually experiencing in the ‘real’ world? You tend to go too far on a regular basis, but this time you are so far out there that folks are concerned about you. Really, get a check up Tom, folks care about you. Have you seen the dismal fundraising numbers for the D’s? So, what you are saying in that the R’s did not not consider race vs. racial gerrymandered districts….um, cognitive dissonance anyone? So, use race to help Democrats = OK, but don’t use use race and the majority of voters are well represented = NOT OK. Got it…. So, how about Democrats share IDEAS that get Unaffiliated voters to the polls for them? but nooooo, you’d rather whine and do things the HRC way, cheating all the way…. Sigh….. get some help Tom, folks who care about you want you to be better than this.

    • Walt de Vries, Ph.D.

      Augustwolf =no courage to let us know who you are? What are you ashamed of? Do you have identify concerns?
      Do you need some mental health care? Having trouble keeping your clinical depression, paranoia and projection problems in order?
      If I make an appointment with the New Hanover Regional Behavioral Health Center, will you keep it?
      How will they recognize you? I know, you will be draped in a confederate battle flag, barking at the moon.
      Really, Mr. Wolf, for me and many others, PoliticsNC is a serious effort to discuss issues, governmental and political actors in a way that helps us better understand each other’s points of view. And, of course, humor is welcomed.
      So, write another piece in a reasonable, informative way and sign your real name.
      In short, cool it, and
      peace.

    • Kicking butt

      Mr. Wolf: Are you the August Wolf who ran unsuccessfully in 2016 at the Connecticut Republican Convention to be the Republican nominee in the general election and oppose Richard Blumenthal for the US Senate? Also, I note that you were a world-class shot putter in the Olympics and World Games. If you are not one and the same, then do you not owe an apology to the real Mr. Wolf? I feel certain that he would not take kindly to your unauthorized use of his name.

    • Norma Munn

      Are you Ebrun in disguise? Quite a different style of writing, but the lack of logic and accuracy are such as to make me suspect you are at least “kissing cousins.”

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