Analysis of April 27, 2016 PPP NC Poll

by | May 12, 2016 | 2016 Elections, NC Politics, Poll Analysis, Polling | 3 comments

ANALYSIS OF APRIL 27, 2016 PPP NC POLL:
…projection on November 2016 election turnout;
…statewide candidates: past & 2016 voting behavior;
…North Carolina ballot structure: impact on 2016 voting behavior;
…approval/disapproval: of 2016 ballot structure;
…voter intentions: 2016 U.S. Congress and State Legislature; and
…summary and conclusions.

Notes on Survey and Report Methodology: At the request of De Vries & Associates, Inc. (Wilmington, NC), Public Policy Polling (Raleigh, NC) generously “piggy-backed” a set of questions on PPP’s April poll of North Carolina voters. “PPP surveyed 960 registered voters from April 22nd to 24th. The margin of error is+/-3.2%. Eighty percent (80%) of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.” (PPP Report, April 27, 2016; contact: Jim Wilson, (919) 744-6312. For the published information regarding that PPP poll, Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com.)

This report focuses primarily on the impact of North Carolina’s ballot structure on voting intentions and other perceived voting and turnout patterns. While the polling data came from PPP, this report’s conclusions are those of De Vries & Associates, Inc.

This report used data from the April 22-24 PPP North Carolina poll (with some data publicly reported by PPP) and the other unpublished data was produced exclusively for De Vries & Associates, Inc. The poll results were analyzed and the report written by Dr. Walt De Vries; contact: (910) 769-4071, waltdv@ec.rr.com and Sue Bulluck, contact: Bulluck & Company (Wilmington, NC), (910) 619-2026, BKS42@aol.com.

PERCENT VOTED (2012, 2014) AND CERTAINTY TO VOTE (2016)

“How likely would you say you are to vote in the November 2016 election for President, Governor and other important offices: are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50/50, or will you probably not vote?”

TOTAL (N-950)

Intentions Perceived Past Behavior
2016 2014 2012
Certain to vote (voted) 91% (75%) (92%)
Will probably vote (no vote) 5% (11%) (4%)
Chances are 50/50 (no vote) 2%
Probably not vote (Not Sure) 2% (14%) (4%)

In the 2012 election, 92% of North Carolina’s voters in this poll say they had voted, 4% say they did not vote and 4% say they aren’t sure, and we consider these two groups non-voters. In the 2014 mid-term election, 75% of this sample say they had voted (a decrease of 16% from the 2012 election), 11% say they had not voted and 14% were not sure if they had voted for a total of 25% who we consider non-voters.

Looking ahead to the November, 2016 election, 92% of North Carolina’s voters say they are certain to vote and the rest say they probably will vote, or chances are 50/50 or probably will not vote, these 8% are basically non-voters. If these voter intentions hold true, the 2016 presidential (and those of other statewide offices) election should have a similar turnout to that of 2012—considerably higher than that of the 2014 mid-term election.

STATEWIDE CANDIDATES: PAST BEHAVIOR AND 2016 VOTING INTENTIONS

(N=960)

DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN LIBERTARIAN NOT SURE
2016 President Clinton 44% Trump 44% 12%
2012 President Obama 46% Romney 46%  
2016 Governor Cooper 43% McCrory 42% Cecil 4% 11%
2012 Governor Dalton 40% McCrory 52% 8%
2016 U.S.Senate Ross 36% Burr 40% Haugh 7% 17%
2014 U.S.Senate Hagan 50% Tillis 44% 6%
2016 Lt. Governor Coleman 37% Forest 38% Summerell 6% 19%
2012 Lt. Governor Coleman 41% Forest 40% 19%

In this survey of North Carolina voters, the 2016 Republican statewide candidates for President, U.S. Senate, Governor and Lt. Governor are winning between 38% to 44% of the voters, which averages out to a 41% base partisan Republican strength. Democrats in these four statewide races have a base partisan Democratic strength of 40%.

The Libertarian candidates have a base partisan strength of 6%. Indecision in the races for President and Governor averages out at 11.5% (one out of ten voters). But for the U.S. Senate and Lt. Governor contests, indecision is double that of the presidential and gubernatorial races at 18% (about two out of ten voters).

What this suggests is that, if you add in the Libertarian committed voters, about 10% (or less) of North Carolina’s voters are going to decide all of these statewide races. However, factoring in non-voters, the target groups for each campaign get even smaller—we project approximately 5% of this state’s voters will decide these elections.

While these races seem competitive (especially, Governor, U.S. Senate and Lt. Governor) all three of these Democratic candidates face an uphill battle against the current GOP incumbents. Experience and research suggests to us that just holding the office gives incumbents a two or three point (+3.0%) advantage in most elections. One caveat: if not anything else, the 2016 campaign has already become known as atypical and unpredictable.

Just one conclusion, among many, is that in this political climate with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, both opposition candidates and incumbents will have to run extraordinary, unique campaigns to get above their party base partisan strength to win a plurality.

PERCEIVED PARTY IDENTIFICATION AND REGISTRATION

“Are you a Democrat, Republican, Independent or do you identify with another party?”

(N=960)

Self-identification

Voter Registration*
Democrat

40%

40.3%

Republican

33%

30.5%

Libertarian

0.5%

Unaffiliated

27%

28.7%

Four out of ten (40.3%) of North Carolina’s voters self-identify as Democrats, 33% as Republicans and 27% as Unaffiliated/Other voters (less than 1% as Libertarian).
*Actual voter registration figures: North Carolina voters – April 30, 2016

BALLOT STRUCTURE AND TICKET-SPLITTING*
The 960 North Carolina voters in this survey were asked if they had voted “in the 2012 election for President, Governor, Congress and other offices.” If they said: “yes,” they were then asked: “did you vote ‘straight ticket’ –that is, did you mark your ballot once for all of the Democratic candidates, once for all of the Republicans, or did you vote for candidates of both parties?”

STRAIGHT OR SPLIT TICKET IN 2012

Voted 2012 Election

(N=960)

Voted straight ticket for all Democrats only

28% (n=269)

Voted straight ticket for all Republicans only

18% (n=173)

Split ticket for candidates of both parties

54% (n=518)

In the 2012 election, 10% more of the voters say they voted straight Democratic (28%) than voted straight Republican (18%) and more than half of North Carolina’s voters (54%) say they split their tickets for candidates of both parties.

Those 54% of the voters (n=518) who split their tickets, were then asked: “did you vote for more Democrats or Republicans?”

HOW SPLIT TICKET IN 2012*

The sample n (518) represents the 2012 ticket splitters only:

(n=518)

Voted for more Democrats

35% (n=181)

Voted for more Republicans

48% (n=249)

Don’t remember (removed)

17% (n=88)

If you take out the “Don’t Remember” voters (17%, 88 voters) and re-percentage the results for the 430 respondents who did make a selection, 42.2%) say they voted for more Democrats and 57.8% for more Republicans. By allowing voters to split tickets voluntarily, Republican candidates benefited more than Democrats by 16% of the split ticket voters in 2012.

Ticket-splitters who say they voted for more Democrats were more likely to identify themselves are very liberal, somewhat liberal or moderate; disapprove of the 2013 GOP changes to the NC ballot; voted for Obama, Hagan and Coleman; were women; African-Americans; lived in area code 704; or were 18 to 29 years of age;

Those 2012 ticket-splitters who say they voted for more Republicans were more likely to identify themselves as conservative or very conservative; approve the 2013 changes to the ballot structure; voted for Romney; Tillis and Forest; were male; and white.


*North Carolina had straight party voting until 2013, but the GOP Voter ID law abolished all straight-ticket voting in 2014. In 2015, similar laws banning straight party voting were passed in Michigan and West Virginia. Straight-ticket voting has declined over the years and the states which still allow straight-ticket voting are: Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Utah. Texas has a mixed system where you can vote straight party in the partisan portion of the ballot but then must vote individually in the other non-partisan parts of the ballot.

2016 VOTER INTENTIONS: STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC, REPUBLICAN, SPLIT TICKET

For the first time in a presidential election—after the passage of the Republican Voter ID law in 2013–North Carolina will be told:

“In the November, 2016 election you will not be able to vote straight ticket—that is, you will not be able to mark your ballot just once to vote for all of the Democratic candidates or all of the Republican candidates. You will need to vote on each individual partisan office, such as President, U.S. Senator, U.S. Congress, Governor, Lt. Governor and other state and county offices. This November do you plan to vote for only Democrats, only Republicans, only Libertarians, both Democrats and Republicans, or are you not sure?”

2016 Vote

WITHOUT NS

Intention (N=960)

(n=854)

Vote for only Democrats

25% (n=240)

28%

Vote for only Republicans

19% (n=180)

21%

Vote for only Libertarians

5% (n=48)

6%

Vote Split Ticket both Democrats & Republicans

40% (n=384)

45%

Not Sure Yet (removed)

11% (n=106)

TICKET-SPLITTER VOTING BEHAVIOR (2012) AND INTENTIONS (2016)

How Voted  2012 –  % Increase  and or decrease
Ticket splitter intent 2012 vs 2016

2016 (n-384)

2012 (n=430)

2016 over 2012

Vote more Democrats

42% 42%

= 0%

Vote more Republicans

58%

58%

= 0%

Not Sure how vote (voted)

removed from both sets of data

Among those North Carolina votes who say they will split their ticket in the 2016 election, 42% say will vote for more Democrats while 58% say they will vote for more Republicans. Republican candidates gain over the Democrats because of the ballot structure.

When we remove the 2016 “Not Sure” voters (11% of the sample or 108 respondents) and re-percentage; we find that there are 854 voters who say they have decided how to vote. Of that group, 384 say they will split their tickets in November, 2016 (45% of the sample). When compared to their recalled 2012 behavior, 54% these voters said they had split their ballot between Republican and Democratic candidates in November, 2012.

The reduction in the voters’ intent to split their ticket indicates a hardening of the realignment within the party structures with a decrease of 9% in intent to split their ticket in 2016 and of those who respond to how they will split their ballot a difference exists in that more respondents break toward the Republican candidates.

It is clear that the change in ballot structure from 2012 to 2016 has impacted voting behavior and certainly benefited Republican candidates with clear advantages over Democratic candidates.

APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL- SEPARATE VOTES ON EACH PARTISAN OFFICE

“Before the 2014 election, North Carolina voters could mark their ballots a straight party vote for all candidates of the Democratic or Republican parties. Now you must mark your vote on each individual candidate for partisan office. Do you approve or disapprove of this change in the way you must vote?”

N=960 Total

Approve of voting separately on each office

43%

Disapprove of voting separately on each office

37%

Not Sure

9%

North Carolina voters appear equally divided on their approval/disapproval of the Republican law to eliminate straight party voting and to mandate separate votes on individual candidates for partisan office. Four out of ten North Carolina voters (43%) approve of this law requiring separate votes on each individual partisan office, 37% disapprove and 20% (two out of ten voters) say they aren’t sure how they feel about this change.

2012 and 2014 ELECTIONS: HOW VOTED FOR U.S. CONGRESS

“In the (2012) 2014 elections for U.S. Congress, did you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your District?”

2012 Total (N=960)

2014 (960)

Voted for Democrat

46%

48%

Voted for Republican

41%

43%

Not Sure

13%

9%

The balance of North Carolina Republican/Democratic Members in the U.S. Congress after the 2012 election was 4 Democrats and 9 Republicans. After the 2014 election, the balance shifted to 3 Democrats and 10 Republicans. The U.S. Congressional primary for 2016 is scheduled for June 7, 2016.

2016 – VOTE INTENTIONS: NC STATE LEGISLATURE

“Generally speaking, if there was an election for the state legislature today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?”

Total (N=960)

Would vote for Democratic candidate

45%

Would vote for Republican candidate

42%

Not Sure

13%

If the 2016 election for Members of the North Carolina General Assembly were held today, 45% of the voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate, 42% for the Republican candidate and 13% say they aren’t sure how they will vote. It appears that Democratic candidates for Members of the North Carolina General Assembly have a small advantage (3%) but the gerrymandering of State Senate and House districts may wipe that small percentage out.

REPORT: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

…Ninety-one percent (91%)of North Carolina’s registered voters in this poll say they will vote in the November, 2016 election—the same amount who say they turned out for the 2012 presidential election. We expect about the same voter turnout in 2016.

…in this poll, 40% of North Carolina’s voters, self-identify as Democrats, 33% as Republicans and 27% as Unaffiliated/Other which corresponds with April 30, 2016 registered voters. No major changes in voter registration are anticipated by November, 2016.

….the Republican candidates for President, U. S. Senator, Governor, Lt. Governor are winning between 38% to 44% of the North Carolina voters which averages out to a 41% base partisan Republican strength. North Carolina Democrats in those four statewide races have a 40% base partisan Democratic strength. The Libertarian candidates for U.S. Senate, Governor and Lt. Governor have a 6% base partisan strength. Voter indecision in the races for President and Governor averages out at 11% (one out of ten voters). In the U.S. Senate and Lt. Governor contests, indecision is double that of the presidential and gubernatorial races at 19% (two out of ten voters). The two parties have equal base strength in the November election.

…factoring in non-voters, the target groups for statewide contests get much smaller and we project approximately 5% of North Carolina’s voters will decide these highly competitive 2016 elections;

…with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket we expect statewide Democratic candidates will have a slight advantage over their Republican opponents, but both candidates and incumbents will have to run extraordinary campaigns to get above their base party strength to win a plurality.

…In the 2012 presidential election, which allowed straight party voting in North Carolina, 28% of the poll’s respondents say they voted straight ticket for Democrats only, 18% say they voted straight ticket for Republicans only and more than half (54%) said they split their tickets for candidates of both parties. When you take out the 17% (n=88) who say they did not vote in 2012 and re-percentage the results for those 54% who did split their 2012 tickets, 42 % say they voted for more Democrats and 58% for more Republicans—a more than 10% advantage gain for GOP candidates over Democratic candidates when North Carolina voters are allowed to voluntarily split their ballots in the2012 election.

…when North Carolina voters are told that they will not be able to vote straight party ballots in the 2016 presidential election and must vote on each individual partisan office, 28% say they will vote for only Democrats, 21% for only Republicans (a slight advantage for Democratic candidates of 7%), 6% for Libertarians, and 45% say they will split their tickets for both Democrats and Republicans. Of those 45% who will split their ticket voting for both parties and when we re-percentaged them, the numbers are the same for 2016 as they were in 2012 with 42% of the ticket-splitters saying they will lean toward democrats and 58% saying they will select more republicans.

…it is clear that the change in North Carolina’s ballot structure (no more straight party voting with one mark) has reduced the amount of voluntary ticket-splitting from 54% in 2012 to 40% in 2016 voting intentions—a decrease of 14%; and has increased the vote intentions for Republican candidates in 2016 by 16%. This was the obvious intent of the 2013 Republican Voter ID act when it changed the North Carolina ballot structure and it gives Republican candidates a clear advantage over the Democrats.

…North Carolina voters appear equally divided on their approval/disapproval (43% approval to 37% disapproval) of the Republican law to eliminate straight party voting and to force separate votes on individual candidates for partisan office while two out of ten voters (37%) say they aren’t sure how they feel about this change.

…Forty-six percent (46%) of North Carolina’s voters say they voted for Democratic candidates for U.S. Congress in 2012 and 48% in 2014. Forty-one percent (41%) say they voted for Republican candidates for U.S. Congress in 2012 and 43% say they did the same in 2014. The discrepancy of the vote totals with the election results (2014: 3 Democratic and 10 Republican congressional representatives) probably results from the gerrymandering of the congressional districts.

…if the November, 2016 election for Members of the General Assembly were held today, 45% of North Carolina’s voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidates, 42% for the Republicans and 13% say they aren’t sure how they will vote. And, while this poll shows a slight advantage for Democratic candidates (3%, within the margin of error), the gerrymandering of state senate and state House districts may well wipe that small percentage out.


SUSAN K. BULLUCK

Susan K Bulluck owned and operated Independent Opinion Research and Communications Inc. from 1984 to 2014 as a market research field operation specializing in NC Referenda and Bond Issues. IOR&C did statewide polling for several of North Carolina’s media organizations. After closing the field operation company in 2014, which was also an affiliate of DeVries & Associates, Inc., Sue became active in several other ventures which include: Bulluck & Co., AmRuss Ventures, SmartCell Co. and Cell Lotto Inc Sue also provides governmental representation consulting services for clients. She lives in Wilmington, N.C.

WALT DE VRIES, Ph.D

Walt de Vries, is a political consultant, author, university professor, and founder of the North Carolina Institute of Political Leadership (1974) and the American Association of Political Consultants (1968). He has co-authored two books on ticket-splitters. He has done public opinion polling since 1960 starting with Market Opinion Research (Detroit), then formed his own company, De Vries & Associates, Inc. in 1967. Walt started North Carolina Opinion Research in 1972. He has polled in all 50 states and several foreign countries. He lives in Wilmington, N.C.

3 Comments

  1. A. D. Reed

    Excellent analysis, and it points out that Democrats have a great deal of work to do in order to win in 2016. Even if the Democratic presidential candidate wins, any coattails have been diminished by the elimination of straight-ticket voting. And even if Democratic candidates for Congress and the legislature gain several hundred thousand more votes than Republican ones, they will still not win seats, because of gerrymandering. So extra-hard work will be required to target races that can be won by actual majority votes.

    The one cavil I have with the article–actually with the polling question, if that is how it was actually phrased, has to do with elimination of straight-ticket voting. There’s a vast difference between wanting the option to vote straight ticket and approving or disapproving of the option of not doing so. The legislature removed the option, but the question asks:
    Approve of voting separately on each office 43%
    Disapprove of voting separately on each office 37%

    That has nothing to do with what actually changed. I personally don’t “disapprove of voting separately on each office,” but I strongly disapprove of not having the option to do so if I wish. But the question does not address that, and if anything simply muddies the waters by asking something completely nongermane to the change that was made.

    That’s the kind of skewing of polling questions that should be a red flag for anyone interested in people’s actual preferences.

  2. john merritt

    For you young folks, Walter Devries was Romney’s fathers pollster. One of the most respected solid thinkers on voting behavior in the nation. Along with Sue Bullock, this is outstanding new work that will keep folks contemplating for a while.

    Great Work

  3. Maurice Murray III

    Republicons have effectively used the power of public office to hold onto this power even in a political environment, with significant demographic changes, that favors Democrats. Will Donald Trump’s media presence and accident prone impulse control have a greater effect on the election results than the changes to ballot structure?

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