PPP: Race Still Looks Headed for Runoff

by | Apr 10, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NCGOP, Poll Analysis, Polling, US Senate | 1 comment

PPP released their monthly look at the North Carolina Senate race two days ago. The poll isn’t so good for Speaker Thom Tillis. Not only does Tillis lead Brannon by a narrower margin than in other polls, he also performs the worst against Senator Hagan, quashing his “electability” argument. We must reiterate that this is PPP’s interpretation of the race, and at the end of this post we’ll average all of the polls we have to get a better indicator as to where the “real” numbers are. For now, though, let’s take a look at how PPP sees things:

General election
Numbers in parentheses indicate change in Republican margin from last poll
44% Harris, 40% Hagan (+4)
43% Grant, 39% Hagan (+5)
42% Brannon, 40% Hagan (+2)
43% Alexander, 42% Hagan (-1)
42% Bradshaw, 41% Hagan (+1)
41% Kryn, 40% Hagan (+3)
41% Hagan, 41% Snyder (-1)
43% Hagan, 41% Tillis (no change)

According to PPP, Harris and Grant are the “most electable” while Tillis is last in that category, though that might be because of the thousands of dollars in ads being spent against him. This is another great poll for Mark Harris. His margin here is identical to his margin against Hagan in the SurveyUSA poll.

Once again, Tillis’s relative weakness is a function of his being better known. Should one of these other candidates receive the nomination, they will have their own negatives and voters will find reasons to dislike them. Tillis’s performance against Hagan does serve as a talking point for his opponents, though.

Republican primary
Numbers in parentheses here indicate change in support from last poll
Undecided – 34% (-2)
Tillis – 18% (+4)
Brannon – 15% (+1)
Harris – 11% (+4)
Grant – 7% (-4)
Alexander – 6% (-1)
Bradshaw – 5% (-1)
Snyder – 2% (-2)
Kryn – 1% (No change)

The frontrunner in the Republican primary is not Thom Tillis. It’s “undecided”. Should these undecided voters break down the same way as their decided counterparts, Tillis will end up with 27% on primary night, which is way below the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

Once again, a great result for Harris, who gained 4 points. Tillis also gained 4 points, but he’s on the air and that’s to be expected. With Harris going up with ads soon, he could quite possibly emerge as the anti-Tillis. The WRAL debate debacle capped off what was a great week for him. He got Tea Party credibility and made great use of the ‘victim conservative’ card, and ultimately got what he wanted, the chance to be on the debate stage.

Aside from Tillis and Harris, none of the candidates are making much headway. Grant lost 4 points, which runs counter to my piece on social media, where I declared that she had the momentum. Maybe her supporters are migrating to the Harris camp.

There are three scenarios at this point. 1) Tillis places first, above 40%, and avoids a runoff. 2) Tillis gets into a runoff with Brannon. 3) Tillis gets into a runoff with Harris. Right now, the polls say the second scenario is the most likely, but Brannon doesn’t have any ads running yet, and his voice could be drowned out by the candidates who can afford that luxury (Tillis and Harris).

Favorable/Unfavorable (general election voters)
First number in parentheses – net favorability. Second number – change in support from last month)
Brannon 14/16 -2 (+7)
Harris 11/16 -5 (No change)
Kryn 7/13 -6 (+5)
Snyder 7/13 -6 (+3)
Grant 9/16 -7 (No change)
Hagan 41/48 -7 (+2)
Alexander 7/15 -8 (+3)
Bradshaw 7/15 -8 (+4)
Tillis 20/39 -19 (No change)

North Carolinians don’t like any of their options for Senate. Kay Hagan has a -7 approval rating, which closely tracks Obama’s -8 approval in the state. PPP shows Hagan having the best approvals of anyone else looking at this race; when combined with her numbers that’s a cause for concern for her.

The ‘best-liked’ candidate is, surprisingly, Greg Brannon, who has a -2 net favorable ranking from general election voters. Tillis is once again at the bottom, at -19 his numbers are much worse than Hagan’s. But even with all the ads attacking him, his numbers remain exactly the same from last poll. Once again, looking at these numbers in a vacuum would make one thing either Brannon or Harris would be a stronger candidate than Tillis. But be cautious of drawing such a conclusion. Tillis has been in the arena, he has the scars, he has the television ads attacking him; Hagan clearly views him as the most formidable opponent, and despite his ratings here he will be a competitive general election candidate. The same can’t be said for Harris or Brannon.

Favorable/Unfavorable (primary election voters)
First number: net favorability. Second number: change from last month
Brannon 18/13 (+5) +9
Tillis 31/29 (+2) +6
Harris 15/15 (+0) +3
Alexander 6/12 (-6) +5
Grant 7/15 (-8) +2
Kryn 4/12 (-8) +2
Snyder 4/12 (-8) No change
Bradshaw 4/14 (-10) -3

Of the candidates, only Alex Bradshaw saw a decrease in his net favorability. Republicans like Brannon best and Bradshaw last, but Tillis also has a positive rating. Harris is break-even. Overall, there seems to be a correlation between positive favorable ratings and the name recognition of the candidate. For some reason, PPP consistently finds that voters who have no opinion on a candidate will rate them negatively by default.

These numbers are important. In a runoff, voters will have to coalesce behind one of two candidates. It could be that there are Tea Partiers who like Brannon, but are voting for someone else in May. Should there be a runoff between Tillis and Brannon, Brannon might pick up their support while Tillis might hit a ceiling with more mainstream Republican voters.

Averaging the Polls
Polls included: Civitas, SurveyUSA, PPP

Tillis – 23%
Brannon – 14%
Harris – 10%
Grant – 6%
Alexander – 4%
Bradshaw – 3%
Snyder – 3%
Kryn – 1%

Averaging the polls, we find that Brannon is not all that close to Tillis, but within single digits and Tillis still falls short of the 40% threshold to secure the nomination outright. The players are Tillis, Brannon, and Harris. The others have no chance of victory, and they are led by Heather Grant, who benefits by being the only female on the ballot. 36% are undecided. If these undecideds break down the same way as their decided counterparts, Tillis places first with 36%. Based on these poll averages, Tillis must win about 47% of undecided voters to win outright on May 6th. A barrage of television ads might help him get there. And keep an eye on Mark Harris. He’s the candidate with the momentum now, and going on television will only increase his support. He could soon displace Brannon as the anti-Tillis.

For the general election, averaging the polls yields the results below:

46% Harris, 42% Hagan
45% Grant, 42% Hagan
45% Alexander, 43% Hagan
45% Brannon, 43% Hagan
42% Bradshaw, 41% Hagan
41% Kryn, 40% Hagan
44% Hagan, 44% Tillis
41% Hagan, 41% Snyder

From the two polls with general election matchups, we find that Tillis and Snyder perform the worst against Hagan. Mark Harris does the best. But one shouldn’t make any broad generalizations based on this data. The most electable candidate in November is the one who will run the best campaign.

1 Comment

  1. larry

    Kay Hagan lost my vote within two years of taking office. I was very happy to vote for her in 2008 but was sorry for that vote soon after. I am what is commonly called a yellow dog Democrat. I have not voted for a Republican since 1968. Any Republican. I simply do not agree with Republican policy locally or nationally. If Kay Hagan wants to appease or gain approval from those folks here at home who see all immigrants as problematic and she votes against there children to prove it by not voting for the Dream Act she no longer deserves my support on any level. She has made many self proclaimed moderates votes and policy stances to satisfy her corporatist pals in the Triad. Just will not vote for her or encourage any fellow Democrat to do so. Certainly want vote for one of the clowns who are vying for the GOP nomination. I will join a lot of Democrats, progressives, if you will, who will just stay the hell home in November. No matter how we vote we will get a pretend Republican running as a Democrat or a Tea Party republican in any case.

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