Blue Dogs Control Outcome in HD-46

by | Oct 2, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC House Races, NC Politics, NCGA, NCGOP | 1 comment

House District 46: Rep. Ken Waddell (D) vs. Brenden Jones (R)

Of the ‘Blue Dog’ districts in NC, this one is probably the Blue Doggiest. It consists of all of Columbus County, the Republican-friendly eastern slice of Robeson County, and a small southwest corner of Bladen County. Romney crushed Obama here but it’s very Democratic downballot. The reason? Columbus County makes up almost 70% of the district, and Blue Doggism is the reigning ideology there. A populist message combined with an emphasis on traditional morality is music to the ears of voters in this rural district. People here are skeptical of big business and especially the concept of free trade, but they’re equally disdainful of liberal elites. And they’re not particularly fans of the President, either – in the 2012 Democratic primary, Columbus was the county that Obama came closest to losing to “No Preference.” And in Hagan’s primary last May, almost a majority of Columbus Democrats voted against her, opting instead to divide their votes between two unknown names on the ballot.

But even if a Democrat running in this district loses a lot of voters from their own party, that still leaves a lot of room for error – Democrats are 64% of registered voters. Republicans are in third place, below unaffiliateds, with just 16.7% of registered voters. But despite the huge Democratic registration advantage here, this is actually one of the Republicans’ better pickup opportunities this year. The 2012 race featured a Republican incumbent legislator, Gaston Pridgen, who got the short end of the stick in redistricting, having his district completely changed and taking in new territory in fiercely Democratic (downballot) Columbus County. Ken Waddell, mayor of Chadbourn, a town in Columbus County, defeated him by 8 points due to his margin in his home county.

Now, Waddell is facing off against Brenden Jones, a businessman who has run an energetic campaign. Jones has proved to be an adept fundraiser, but more importantly, he’s also from Columbus County and will be able to fight the incumbent on his home turf. Given the district’s large minority population, there’s the potential for some big Democratic dropoff from 2012, and that means a race that could conceivably become competitive.

But Jones is facing some headwinds. Waddell is now an incumbent legislator and has been able to make himself known to district residents. And the Republican nominee from 2012 was also an incumbent and therefore should have started out in a better position to appeal to voters. There’s also the unpopularity of the Republican-led General Assembly. This year, it’s unlikely voters in such a historically Democratic district would choose now to send a member of the GOP to Raleigh.

The rating? Likely Democratic. Waddell is clearly favored here, but if Republicans surpass expectations on Election Night, this district could yield a surprising result. And no matter what happens this year, it certainly bears watching in the future. Mitt Romney won here by 14, McCrory by 7, and Burr by 12. Rural voters and formerly Yellow Dog Democrats are increasingly choosing Republicans for both federal, state, and local office, and it’s only a matter of time before the transition is complete. Perhaps, by the end of the decade, this will be an area where Republicans will have the edge. But for now, in this solid Blue Dog territory, they’re clear underdogs.

Counties in district: Bladen (part), Columbus, Robeson (part)

District Rating: Likely Democratic

2012 Result
54.1% Waddell (D)
45.9% Pridgen (R)

Voter Registration
64.3% Democratic
18.9% Unaffiliated
16.7% Republican

65.8% White
26.9% Black
7.3% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
56.9% Romney
42.5% Obama

2012 Governor
52.7% McCrory
45.7% Dalton

2010 Senate
55.4% Burr
42.7% Marshall

2008 Senate
54.2% Hagan
42.9% Dole

Social Media Support
Brenden Jones – 914
Rep. Ken Waddell – 412

1 Comment

  1. Chris Telesca

    You will be surprised how well Bernie Sanders does in this area. Even right-wing Republicans and conservative Democratic voters are sick of “business as usual” blue-dog Dems and the ALEC Republicans!

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