“The governor believes the bill is unnecessary.” That seemingly anodyne sentence is Robert Brawley’s best hope at the nomination. However wildly remote, it’s possible to imagine a scenario where Brawley could unite the many conservatives who believe, emphatically, that Shariah is a dangerous threat, and expel the “squishy appeaser” McCrory from his perch atop the GOP.
Within the strange world of NC reactionaries, Islamophobia boils like a cauldron. PPP found that Trump supporters in the state favor the legal prohibition of Islam. As a whole, NC Republican primary voters favor shutting down all mosques 48%-33%. Presaging this moment, Rep. Michele Presnell slandered Islamic prayer as “terrorism.” The Daily Haymaker, something of a clearinghouse for hard-right sentiment in the state, has spoken favorably of punitive anti-Muslim policies. There’s a lot of rage for a cynical candidate to harness.
So just as Willis Smith gained traction with race-baiting, Brawley could use Muslim-baiting to become a Tea Party cause celebre. He could then parlay that status into getting a key source of support: The right’s last darling, Greg Brannon. (Note that Brawley has recruited a key Brannon operative.) Both Brannon and Brawley are long-shots in their respective campaigns, but forging a unity ticket of sorts could amplify their voices. Sharing funding from Brannon’s PAC, Brawley could spread his message of fear well beyond greater Charlotte.
That message would surely entail God and gays, a point of vulnerability for the man who vetoed SB2. Establishing himself as the socially conservative insurgent could deliver Brawley into the arms of a second crucial backer. Mark Harris would climb aboard the crusade. Team Brawley would then add Harris’s Heroes to the Brann-Nuts, reassembling a coalition that equalled Tillis. Anti-toll road voters would be the coup de grace.
Here we have Brawley’s own “Amnesty, Acid and Abortion”: I-77, Islam and Isaiah. Can Brawley pull this off? Almost certainly not, but then a paranoid neurosurgeon and the star of The Apprentice have a fair shot at facing Hillary Clinton. 2016 Republicans live in interesting times.
Alexander Jones is an original contributor to PoliticsNC.
A well written analysis. The concise yet intellectual nature of Alex’s writing is distinct from Tom’s and John’s.
Michele Presnell supporting “a bill that would allow North Carolina to declare an official state religion” is not surprising, considering how far out of the mainstream Presnell is.
It’s not clear if Brawley will try to run to the middle or to McCory’s right. There’s still a few RINOs around in NC, but not enough to help him much, even if liberal independents vote in the GOP primary. And Democrats also have contested primary races for Governor and Senator which may attract some liberal independent voters.
Republicans: “Religious liberty for me but not for thee!”
Independents can vote in Republican or Democratic primaries as they see fit, unless there has been a very recent change in the law.
What an absurd hypothesis (or perhaps wishing thinking?). Gov. McCory has locked up the conservative GOP primary vote. The only way he could lose a Republican primary is for RINOS and other moderates to rally around an anti-McCory candidate, but Brawley is not their man. And since NC party primaries are “closed”, there is no way that Democrats and registered Independents can influence a Republican primary anyway.
With the state’s economy experiencing steady growth and McCory advocating popular measures such as an end to sanctuary cities, the Governor will breeze through the primary and Brawley will go the way of Greg Brannon. The general election will be close, however, with McCory now a slight favorite. But much will depend on the Presidential candidates and how they fare in NC.
At the very beginning of the post, I say it is not a prediction. The words “wildly remote” should key the reader (thanks for reading, by the way, and I sincerely mean that), in on the fact that I see a Brawley victory as vanishingly unlikely. The point of this post was to speculate on the conditions in which he could catch lightning in a bottle. Don’t forget that an alleged witchcraft enthusiast defeated the respected Congressman Mike Castle; in today’s Republican Party, nothing is impossible.
I have little doubt that you will be right in the end–as I say multiple times in the post. Again, thank you for reading.
Thanks for your polite and respectful reply.Yes, you’re right, you did say it was a very remote possibility. I just thought it was so remote that it wasn’t worth blogging about. On your larger point, the Virginia upset was in a conservative dominated Congressional district. I think it would be much more unlikely in a state wide GOP primary.