Buckle up, folks. The Republican primary for U.S. Senate in North Carolina is about to take off. Mark Harris is morphing into a feisty underdog and might have the resources to compete.
Yesterday, Harris called on House Speaker Thom Tillis to resign as speaker to avoid conflicts of interest. Harris pointed out that, in his Senate campaign, Tillis has been taking money from lobbyists while state law bans them from giving to him as a legislator. Last summer, Tillis held fundraisers with lobbyists in Washington while the legislature was in session.
When Harris entered the race last summer, most people expected him to be Tillis’ chief rival but the Mecklenburg County preacher has been virtually invisible. Last week, though, Harris began taking shots at Tillis and the Speaker sent him a private email asking him to stop. Instead, Harris used the opportunity to fire another volley, blasting his legislative record and commitment to the gay marriage ban in North Carolina. Once more, Tillis looked like a thin-skinned amateur instead of a U.S. Senate nominee-in-waiting.
In addition, Harris has turned up his volume on social media, too. An analysis by John Wynne for PoliticsNC showed that Mark Harris has doubled his support on Facebook and twitter since last month. It shows momentum at the right time in the race.
And Harris also announced that he will be buying TV air time this week. With the big guns like American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber weighing in for Tillis, Harris and his team will have to buy smart and reach the people who matter in a primary. If he has enough money to cut through, he can emerge as the anti-Tillis, a great place to be in a party that is wary of its own establishment.
Harris’ goal is to keep Tillis under 40% in May to force a runoff. If he can get enough air time, it’s a good bet. He only needs about 20% of the primary electorate, not a heavy lift for a month of television. Greg Brannon seems stuck at 15% and Heather Grant, the only woman, is garnering about 11% or so. In the final tally, if Grant and Brannon can combine for 30% and Harris hits his 20% mark, the other four, yes four, candidates can easily combine for more than 10 points, leaving Tillis shy of the threshold. In a runoff, Tillis has a tough road.
Go, Mark, go! I love an underdog.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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