Burr: I’m Running Again

by | Sep 17, 2014 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Democrats, Features, NC Politics, NCGOP, US Senate | 5 comments

I’ve speculated in the past that Richard Burr is very likely to retire in 2016. Not only are there rumors that Burr is tired of life in the Senate, several of his friends are leaving also and it might be getting kind of lonely up there. Burr’s very anemic fundraising also supports this. His campaign account looks more like someone ready to do something else than to wage an expensive campaign for Senate. Despite rumors to the contrary, though, Senator Burr says he’s planning to run again in 2016.

In the past year, there have been a few things that might change the senator’s calculus. Republicans have gone from having no chance to taking the Senate to 50-50 odds, at worst. If Republicans take back the Senate, Burr will be in line for a committee chairmanship. Our senior senator has been in the minority for all but the first two years of his time in the upper chamber. If Burr retires right after the GOP wins back the Senate, he’ll be leaving just when things are starting to get interesting. Of course, the 2016 Senate map is pretty unfavorable to the GOP. If Burr figures the GOP is going to win the Senate only to lose it in 2016, closing out his Senate career at the peak of his influence and then going to work in the private sector might look like an attractive option.

It’s anyone’s guess what Senator Burr will ultimately choose to do, but it does appear he’s worked out a deal with Anthony Foxx: he would enthusiastically support his nomination for Secretary of Transportation so long as Foxx promised not to challenge him in 2016. Anthony Foxx would be Burr’s strongest potential opponent and him sitting out a race against Burr is definitely a disappointment for Democrats.

Let’s assume that Burr does indeed seek a third term. How vulnerable would he be in 2016? And if Foxx keeps his promise to Burr and doesn’t run, who would be the strongest nominee for Democrats?

Burr is one of the more low-profile senators in Washington. As Francis DeLuca of the Civitas Institute said, the biggest splash he’s made in his career was when he said that shutting down the government to defund Obamacare would be a “dumb idea”. (It was a dumb idea.) In the latest poll from PPP, released yesterday, Burr was at 30% approval, 32% disapproval. Not popular, but not unpopular – more unknown than anything else. Like so many other Senators running for reelection in NC in the past, Burr looks like he’d be totally at the mercy of the national environment. In a good year for Democrats, Burr would be a top target. In a good year for Republicans, forget about it.

No one knows what the political environment will be like in 2016. Hillary Clinton will in all likelihood be the Democratic nominee but President Obama should still be unpopular. With his most viable opponent out of the race, Burr would probably be favored for a third term.

Potential Burr challengers in 2016: Sen. Dan Blue. Treasurer Janet Cowell. State Rep. Grier Martin. Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarlane (who would have to switch her registration to Democrat to run). Last month PPP found Burr leading all challengers. Just remember that North Carolina always has competitive Senate elections and incumbents never clear 55% of the vote, so it’s unlikely Burr will coast to the 12-point victory he enjoyed in 2010.

Burr’s biggest hurdle might come in the primary. But unlike a lot of Republican politicians who have fallen in primaries, Burr will be ready to aggressively defend his conservative credentials and will be prepared for an intense contest, even if no conservative alternative ultimately appears on the scene.

It’s good news for Republicans that Burr might run again, because he’d be their strongest candidate. But I’m still skeptical that Burr will pull the trigger and run for a third term. A “real” decision and announcement is probably a few months away. Should Burr retire, other Republicans who might run: Reps. George Holding, Mark Meadows, and Robert Pittenger. Phil Berger. Greg Brannon. Jim Cain.

That’s enough 2016 speculation for now, and for the next few weeks. More will come after the dust settles from this present contest. (By the way: Richard Burr is the first U.S. Senator from North Carolina to be reelected since Jesse Helms. North Carolinians tend to throw out their senators after one term. If Kay Hagan gets reelected this fall, this will be the first time we’ve had two non-freshmen serving in our state’s Senate delegation in … quite a while.)

5 Comments

  1. srshelley

    If he runs, I will vote for any primary opponent.

  2. Frank McGuirt

    If Burr retires no one would notice. He’s one of the seat warmers Myers Part Pat spoke of.

  3. Paleo Tek

    Yup, I think Mick’s nailed it. Burr is half-hearted: he’s not raising money, but if he announced Lame Duck status 2 years ahead, he’d get Absolutely No Respect for the last two years of his tenure. He’s not working the phones shaking down donors, that’s the biggest tell of whether an elected official is planning to try to hold onto their seat. He wasn’t very good at it, didn’t enjoy it that much, and the map says that unless there’s a tidal wave, the Dems will purge a bunch of Republicans from the Senate in 2016. Buh-bye, Bank-run Burr!

  4. John Wynne

    Typo, should have been “not popular, but not unpopular.” Josh Stein would be a good candidate for the Democrats but he seems intent on running for Attorney General.

  5. Mick

    No doubt in my mind that Burr’s decision totally hinges on the GOP taking the US Senate majority…or not. Right now, for fund raising and pecking-order purposes (if would do him no good to be a lame duck for 2+ years), he has to act like he’s sure to run in 2016. But after election day this fall, if the Dems hold the Senate, he could just say he’s changed his mind.

    You are giving the roster of possible Dem candidates short shrift. And left out Josh Stein and Cong. Butterfield.
    And nice to read that even you, John, think that the GOP shutting down the government was a dumb idea……
    And, further, not sure what you meant by writing “Not popular, but not popular” re: Burr.

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