This year’s Senate contest will be a raucous affair. But after that’s over with, there’s going to be another Senate race just on the horizon. The big question there is whether or not our state’s senior senator Richard Burr will seek a third term.

Burr’s decision just might hinge on whether or not Republicans take control of the U.S. Senate, this year. Being in the minority is no fun, and this is probably the GOP’s best chance to take back control of the upper chamber for some time. If Republicans fail to take it back, then Burr is probably going to call it quits and go back to the private sector. Burr was elected to the Senate in 2004, back when there was talk of a permanent GOP majority. That talk faded in 2006, and ever since then the GOP has been the minority in the Senate. Burr might relish the opportunity to be back in the majority, once again.

So what are Republicans’ chances of taking back that body? I have no thoughts to offer differing from the prevailing conventional wisdom. I think the GOP is obviously favored in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota. Mark Pryor has risen from the dead in Arkansas and is ahead now. I think Landrieu might actually be the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent (other than the guy in Montana). I don’t think Democrats have much of a shot in Georgia, and I can’t see how Allison Lundergan Grimes wins in Kentucky as long as Obama is President.

Alaska will be very close but I think Begich has the advantage. Colorado will be close but again I think Udall has the advantage and Republicans have had a long losing streak in the Centennial State. Iowa is I think the sleeper contest and Republicans are in better shape there than one might think. Michigan will be close; I don’t think New Hampshire will be. North Carolina, we’ve already heard so much about; I think Tillis is favored but Hagan has a unique set of issues that she can use to her advantage.

To conclude, Senate control is still up in the air, and I actually don’t recall a cycle with so many competitive races. And despite this being a midterm year, Democrats can play offense in red states like Kentucky and Georgia. But the bottom line is that I imagine whether or not the GOP takes control of the Senate will be a huge factor in Burr’s decision whether or not to seek reelection. If Tillis wins, Republicans probably take back the Senate and Burr probably runs again in 2016. So if it’s Tillis this year, it’s Burr as the GOP nominee two years from now. They’re a two-for-one, package deal.

2 Comments

  1. Mick

    I can only hope it is a two-fer package deal, but the sort that sees Tillis lose and Burr leave Congress in 2016. The notion of having that “Non-Dynamic Duo” of regressives representing what was once and will be again the South’s most progressive and enlightened state just creeps me out.

    Tillis and Burr have too similar an act for my taste. Unlike senators who can think outside the box, understand that legislating involves give-and-take, don’t shy from taking risks on the front line of issues, and try to represent/help all strata of their constituency, they both rather hold, without waver or thoughtfulness, to ideology and the needs of business over the needs of all state residents. They also are both smitten with rising to power in their legislative bodies, as opposed to championing causes that truly help most North Carolinians.

    I realize it may take some luck and a surprise or two to forestall a GOP takeover in the Senate. Nonetheless, here’s to a Tillis loss, the Dems maintaining their majority, and Burr’s retirement come 2016,

  2. Mike

    I was hoping this was going to be about burrs decision to block judge may-Parker’s nomination by withholding his blue slip even burr himself recommended her for the post. You dropped the ball again to be taken seriously john.

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