Well, that ended quickly. The Trump boomlet is pretty much officially over after the billionaire ridiculed John McCain for being captured while serving in the Vietnam War. His comments come just a week after Public Policy Polling found that Trump was the top choice of Republican primary voters in North Carolina.
Still think that will be the case a week from now in a state where GOP primary voters are very military-friendly? Trump’s comments won’t play well with the GOP base, at all. They will go over even worse with Republicans in NC.
Sure, there are some Tea Party types who despise John McCain for being a RINO, but they’re deep in the minority. The overwhelming majority of Republicans revere the military and respect McCain’s service. To them, Trump’s comments are not only extremely inappropriate, but render him a candidate no longer supporting. I expect Trump’s support to be cut in half in polls coming out this week.
Trump was always destined to remain a sideshow in the presidential contest, his campaign inevitably collapsing in on itself once he or his voters got bored with the game. The conservative die-hards who made up the bulk of his support will move on to other candidates who are hopefully a little more serious.
In other presidential news: North Carolina’s presidential primary date has been pretty much settled. Lawmakers will back the March 15th date, ending conflict with the national party’s rules. The primary will be winner-take-all, the earliest date allowed for this by the states. With a huge number of delegates at stake in the Tar Heel State, we should be getting a lot of visits from the Republican presidential candidates – and, unexpectedly, perhaps from Democrats too.
Let’s hope that by then, Donald Trump will be far removed from the headlines.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Donald has ridiculed Big Brother Bush’s support of Common Core and amnesty for immigrants. Donald said “the last thing we need is another Bush in the white house.” Real Clear Politics has Trump ahead of Big Brother by 4.5%
It is my opinion that Trump is a well funded Stalking Horse for Jeb Bush. His role is to soak up media attention and to keep any of the other GOP candidate from gaining momentum. The
moment his banker handlers and funders tell him, he will slide aside and endorse Jebby. Note that his attacks on Bush are mild while he sandbags other candidates. He claims independence, but after that many bankruptcys, I doubt it.
Your Bye Bye appears a bit premature. Today’s boom let is changing to tomorrow’s blowout.
Evidently you wrote the story before the polls came out. Trump gained again in the polls AFTER his McCain comments. Keep in mind McCain is not a popular Republican anyway – especially not with the conservative heart of the party.
In the end Trump will likely leave the race. He doesn’t have time, nor can he afford to be president. But I think the issues he is bringing up resonate across party lines. We have an immigration problem that a majority don’t believe will be solved by an amnesty-type law or policy. The recent revelations of violent crimes being committed by illegal immigrants – not that the same crimes haven’t been by US citizens to of course – has fueled the debate too. It may be that by bringing this issue up in the “in your face” way he has ends up helping the Republicans. They don’t have to defend what he says, nor do they have to say it in the way he has. But he has exposed a weakness in the left’s position that the more viable candidates can exploit in more subtle ways.
Much the same way Sanders has exposed weaknesses in Hillary and her positions. He’s as unelectable as Trump in the end. The problem the Democrats have that the Republicans don’t is a very thin bench to turn to if Hillary continues to be damaged.
Will be interesting.
Really, Morris?
First, the last major poll did not come out fully after Trump’s gaff. The poll was a 4-day affair, and Trump’s McCain remarks came out on Day 3 of the poll. And his popularity in the poll took a hit on Day 4. Try reading on it.
So let us also get this straight? You say that:
-Trump has exposed a weakness in the Dems’ position?
-Sanders has exposed a weakness in the Dems’ position?
-the Dems have a ‘”weak bench” but the GOP doesn’t?
Me thinx, your biases are showing. What about GOP weaknesses exposed????
If anything, Trump is an issue for the GOP, as his popularity among GOP’ers is exposing a major Republican soft spot, i.e., that their base is too full of bigots and too against any reasonable form of immigration policy change, but especially relating to Mexicans. The GOP needs 45% of the Hispanic vote to win the White House; they are nowhere near that figure and it’s tanking fast, thanks to Trump’s big mouth.
If anything, Sanders is laying out a very progressive viewpoint that shows the regressive GOP agenda to be backward, as well as insensitive to the middle class. He doesn’t weaken HRC’s candidacy as much as he influences it. HRC has already co-opted part of Sanders message and leanings.
Finally, do you really think that the GOP candidate Clown Car constitutes a strong bench of candidates? Christie, Perry, Pataki, Huckabee, Paul, Carson, Cruz, Graham, Santorum, Fiorina and Jindal are “strong” and viable candidates to win the presidency? Bush, Walker and Kasic are the only viables, and they, like all the other Clown Car riders, would lose to HRC, and maybe even to Bernie, if it came to that. Plus, the Dems needing a strong bench is a non-issue; it won’t come to that. HRC will be the nominee and will win.
“What about GOP weaknesses exposed?” That was my point. Trump is HIDING GOP weakness because the immigration issue, as much as you may not want to believe it, is a non-partisan issue. He has brought that to the forefront and taken focus away from other GOP issues. Many in the establishment GOP WANT a liberal immigration bill. It helps, in their mind, keep wages down. But the rank and file conservatives don’t want it.
Many in the establishment Democrat group want a liberal immigration bill too. Ready made constituency. But likewise their rank and file are uneasy as they see wages held down, etc. Many – if not most – there don’t want it.
And NEITHER party needs 45% of the Hispanic vote. Just plain silly.They just need to swing 4 or 5 states either way. Virginia (7.9% Hispanic), Ohio (3.1%), Florida (22.9% but a less than 1% MOV in 2012) Pennsylvania (5.7%) and one or two others.
Sanders is a socialist. That’s clear. And many may want that (talk about a clown without the car). But the track record of socialism is on display across the ocean, as it has been before, and the scene isn’t pretty. I think that clown runs his course – as does Trump. Obviously you do too based on your last sentence.
By the way “after McCain” polls are out and Trump did gain. The latest nationally recognized polling group to poll, Public Policy Polling, has Trump at 19 – a 2 point gain from their last poll of early July.
I once believed HRC would win too, but if you don’t see she is on shaky ground, you are delusional. She is not campaigning well. Evidence – the more she campaigns the lower her numbers go. Her trust numbers look crappier. She isn’t exciting the younger voters that she must get to win. Heck the ones who know who she is, think she is past history. And now two inspector generals, including one from the State Dept. have asked the Justice Dept to open a criminal investigation of her email debacle, according to a NY Times story today. That will be hard to pass off as a “right-wing conspiracy” considering the source. O’Malley may yet rise to the top. Side by side she looks like last week’s tuna salad and Sanders looks like a your eccentric great uncle.
As far as the GOP bench, there are many non-viable candidates – that we agree on. Most I would not consider voting for. But when you lump a Graham and a Cruz together, it really shows you know little about the candidates. Graham is a joke. Cruz is the real deal. There’s one I would get on board with. If he begins to get his message out, he’ll be formidable. He was totally overlooked when he ran for senate – until the last month.
Yes I am a strong Libertarian, so I am not a Democrat echo chamber as most here are. Nor a Republican one. But I do read this blog with interest. And the only Democrats so far I would consider voting for are O’Malley.and maybe Webb. Republicans – Cruz and maybe Paul or Walker. But, unlike you, I am not married to either party so I can vote for either. Like most North Carolinians by the way.
If you consider Ted Cruz the “real deal,” and would vote for him, that’s all one needs to know about your political leanings, your partisanship, your positions on US societal issues, and the respect you hold for the office of POTUS. And I really don’t care about whom you would vote for on the Dem side, as I submit you’d never vote for a Dem ever anyway.
He’s sly as a fox so don’t underestimate him. This is a man who has literally made billions by being shrewd. While employing illegal immigrants at low wages in his construction company he refers to them as murderers and rapists; this garners votes among the republican base while he capitalizes on the plight of an illegal disenfranchised workforce. We as democrats need to speak to our base in such a way as to inspire them like he does his, otherwise, our candidate may not carry NC because they (our base) won’t show up to vote.
We want Donald to remain in the headlines as long as possible to take media attention away from the top GOP contenders and make them seem less viable to come out victorious. We need to stop attacking Donald to allow him more time to drive the GOP clown car into the conservatives watching the circus.
He’s sly as a fox so don’t underestimate him. This is a man who has literally made billions by being shrewd. While employing illegal immigrants at low wages in his construction company he refers to them as murderers and rapists; this garners votes among the republican base while he capitalizes on the plight of an illegal disenfranchised workforce. We as democrats need to speak to our base in such a way as to inspire them like he does his, otherwise, our candidate may not carry NC because they (our base) won’t show up to vote.
People outside of the military don’t quite get it that any military man following orders can easily find themselves overwhelmed, no matter how expert they may be. Generals give orders. It is one of the outstanding credits to all of McCain’s public life that he spoke out against the lies leveled at Kerry regarding his time in the service. Trump says things that many people think and want to hear, and they deserve to hear them spoken so that they learn how far into stupidity we have fallen. Silence is the new propaganda. Doublespeak and groupthink and mind control are the mark of the age. Imagine a Trump Clinton contest? Presidential Electoral Democracy is the most delicate of the democracies. We head the way of Haiti. The TPP. My God, Snowden told us about that. The Revolutionary war, what was that really for? We’d have been better for a Parliamentary system when Nixon fired his cabinet. This isn’t working. What more do you need to imagine to recognize it? It really is all fixed. Trump is as ignorant as the common man about what causes immigration. 10 thousand a year at least killed in the Mexican and American border War on Drugs. You’d walk out too. Silence. It doesn’t matter. See a Psych, and they will tell you let it go. Finance. Meyer Lansky and J. Edgar Hoover are in control.
John once again you delude yourself. Trump will remain in the top 3 right up to your early convention next summer. You can wish and pray otherwise but I am afraid you are very well stuck, and rightfully so, with the Donald.
I’m with you on that, Dwight!
Plus, even if Trump’s share of the candidate polls does drop by 50%, he will still get on the GOP debate stage. And until then, he will try to walk back or spin his McCain comment, rant further about immigrants and Obama and other GOP candidates, and continue to hurl crazy remarks from the window of the Clown Car…..
I tend to somewhat agree with Mr. Willis. Trump will maintain more support than he should because his knuckle-dragging brand appeals to way too many, even if it is not a large number. I agree he will not make it through the primary season but I do not believe he has disappeared yet. Also, even if his poll numbers do drop by half, that may still be enough to get him in the first debate. Even I might watch a 10-candidate folly of a Republican debate to see that spectacle.
Don’t give up on Trump so quickly. You must remember that these GOP primary voters are the people who gave us McCrory, Tillis, Burr, and the GOP General Assembly. All Trump needs to do to stay in their good graces is take another really harsh slap at the illegal aliens and they will forgive him for his harsh words toward Senator McCain. These people are not particularly scholarly. I have great confidence in their ability to make the most ignorant of choices.