Rumor has it that Tony Tata resigned in part because he’s exploring a bid for Congress, this time in North Carolina’s 2nd, held by Renee Ellmers. Tata lives in Cary, which is part of the district, so it would be a much better fit for him than the 3rd. In addition, the significant military presence in the Cumberland County/Fort Bragg and name recognition in the Wake County portion of the district would make him a strong contender.

So if Tata throws his hat into the ring, what happens? Answer: chaos. For Ellmers, the fundamentals for winning reelection would remain the same: just get over that 40% mark, because a runoff would be a very dicey proposition for her. That means just doing the same thing she’s been doing to hold the district for the past several years: use her monetary advantage to blanket the district with ads touting herself as a conservative.

We’re already seeing that right now – sort of. A group called Main Street Advocacy is running ads praising Ellmers for her support of the Export-Import bank, which is a real hit with grassroots conservatives. That 40% threshold is a low bar for an incumbent so if she runs a credible campaign, in theory she should have nothing to worry about.

A Tata entry would change the calculus somewhat. The more candidates that get in, the harder it will be for Ellmers to clear that 40% hurdle and avoid a runoff. Tata has the potential not only to draw conservatives disappointed with the incumbent, but also establishment support that previously was firmly in Ellmers’ corner.

If Tata jumps in – still a hypothetical – we’d have four candidates: Tata, Ellmers, Jim Duncan, and Frank Roche. And then there’s the possibility that yet more people could jump in. As the race starts to resemble more of an open-seat contest, you might have several more folks from the 2nd who might think this is their big chance to get elected to Congress. Now, that would be really interesting.

In short: a Tata entry into the 2nd would be a recipe for chaos, throwing every campaign into disarray. In such a situation, no one really knows what would happen. One thing is for sure, Tata is going to have to hit the ground running in order to run a successful campaign. We should be hearing more from him, very soon.

3 Comments

  1. Pat Adams

    Tata couldn’t even get the transportation system to work for a school system, and he only made small acheivements in the DOT, long hanging fruit.

  2. James Lonergan

    Ridiculous… Tata had one of the best run departments in the administration. Yes he had several issues but with such a large organization you are going to. Especially considering what he took over.. if that doesn’t work for you look at DHHS and their unresponsiveness and inability to pay people what they owe them.. Then there is Commerce which cant get a small Veterans issue right. Tata isn’t a revolutionary though.. he will be a bit establishment guy although Boehner might not be able to count on his vote.

    • citizenry

      I agree with you James Lonergan.

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