Could there be a Democratic wave in NC this year? Possibly. The Civitas polls of the legislative races certainly support such a theory. Rep. Mike Stone and Rep. Michele Presnell are both down 12 points in districts that Mitt Romney carried by double digits. In the open Senate District 15 race in Wake County, Democrat Tom Bradshaw is leading by 9 in a district that was almost an exact tie in the 2008 Hagan/Dole race. The poll showing vulnerable Republican Senator Wesley Meredith up 12 is a counterexample to this trend (and the results are meaningless now, given recent news.)
And, as detailed in Dr. Bitzer’s ongoing series of posts, NC Democrats seem to be unusually enthusiastic about voting, for a midterm. The Democrats’ success in mail-in ballots this year is probably due to a new focus on absentee ballots by the national party, but if nothing else it indicates a strong Democratic ground game this year. So at least in North Carolina, it doesn’t look like we’re in for a repeat of 2010. If anything, we’re in for a repeat of 2008 – just worse for Republicans. Right?
Not so fast. The Hagan/Tillis numbers in these district polls don’t jibe with the statewide polls showing Hagan with only a small, single-digit lead. If the district polls are correct, then Hagan would be leading by double-digits. For a number of reasons, then, I suspect that the Civitas legislative polls are overestimating Democrats by roughly 8 points, the Meredith poll notwithstanding. That means both Stone and Presnell are down, but only by around 4 points or so – underdogs for sure, but easily able to come back.
Gary Pearce, who consults for Tom Bradshaw, doesn’t buy the Civitas numbers either, and appears to think the race is much, much closer. Which is still impressive considering the Republican nature of the district, but nothing we weren’t expecting already.
And over the weekend, Civitas released two additional polls, one of the competitive SD-9 (pretty much all of New Hanover County), and also HD-49 (Rep. Fulghum’s old district, containing affluent Raleigh neighborhoods and part of North Raleigh). In SD-9, Sen. Michael Lee is ahead of his Democratic rival by 4 points. New Hanover County is a key bellwether county and the Senate race between Tillis and Hagan is tied there. (Romney carried New Hanover County by 5 in 2012 and Richard Burr won it by nearly 20 in 2010.)
In HD-49, the race between incumbent Republican Gary Pendleton, appointed to finish Fulghum’s term, is an exact tie. The district should favor a GOP candidate but if Democrats are having a good year in North Carolina, it should be competitive, which is exactly what we’re seeing. Hagan is up 4 on Tillis here, which indicates a larger statewide lead than the state polls indicate. Maybe the Civitas polls are wrong, or maybe Democrats are having a banner year in Wake County, making up for worse numbers elsewhere. That is also a possibility.
The bottom line on the Civitas polls: take them with a hefty grain of salt, while keeping in mind the overall trend – legislative Republicans are unpopular and Democrats should make gains in both chambers of the General Assembly, but probably not huge ones. Probably. And candidates matter. Strong candidates can overcome tough fundamentals. And sometimes, candidates can blow races in places where they almost have to make an effort to lose (exhibit A: Kansas). We’re seeing that in races throughout the nation, and we’ll undoubtedly see it in General Assembly races next month.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
“Not so fast. The Hagan/Tillis numbers in these district polls don’t jibe with the statewide polls showing Hagan with only a small, single-digit lead.”
This makes no sense. You’re expecting every district poll to show exactly the same lead as the statewide polls? What?
And this: “Gary Pearce, who consults for Tom Bradshaw, doesn’t buy the Civitas numbers either, and appears to think the race is much, much closer.”
That completely misrepresents the intent of the linked post, which was that Civitas numbers are totally unreliable in every case.
My question was, “what news about Meredith?” So I used the almighty Google and found this: http://www.fayobserver.com/news/local/gop-consultant-wesley-meredith-needs-to-address-welfare-fraud-allegations/article_1b7d02c8-4532-5e2f-8ec5-b8f990cecfa9.html
Could you be any more waffling and adrift in much of this particular blog, John?
1. First, the headline teases “…a Democratic Wave?”
2. Supporting Item #1 above, you mention several races where Dems are doing surprisingly well.
3. Again supporting Item #1 above, you mention how Bitzer’s analyses may herald a stronger Dem voting response for a midterm.
4. Then, you swing back with a “Not so fast” opposing view, saying “For a number of reasons, then, I suspect that the Civitas legislative polls are overestimating Democrats by roughly 8 points.” But, at the same time, you fail to give us those “number of reasons.”
5. Then, in really hard-to-follow guidance, you say re: the Civitas Polls “take them at face value, but also with a hefty grain of salt.” How is that possible to do? Taking a statement “at face value” means that there is nothing more than meets the eye and digging deeper into context isn’t likely to reveal anything interesting or important. Meanwhile, taking at statement with “a grain of salt” means to view it with skepticism, and not literally (i.r., not “at face value”).
All the above yawing and pitching, back and forth, made me a bit seasick. Fortunately, I found a life-jacket just in time, at the end, when you wrote “Democrats should make gains in both chambers of the General Assembly.”
Blah, blah, blah, …..Ride the wave John….Wake will be solid Blue and Hagan will pile up numbers in Wake that will be one of her firewalls for possible negative numbers elsewhere. Tillis is toast and all that Rove and Koch money, sadly down the toilet. ha ha ha ha ha
Part of the problem with looking at the Hagan/Tillis numbers in those Civitas polls has to do with question order. It looks as though the Hagan/Tillis matchup question was asked well into the poll, which could lead to some question about the validity of those numbers.