Civitas is out with a new poll, and it shows Speaker of the House Thom Tillis with a slight lead over Democratic incumbent senator Kay Hagan.
General election
Tillis – 39%
Hagan – 36%
Haugh – 8%
This is the second poll which finds the Libertarian candidate, Sean Haugh, with unusually high support. Maybe that PPP poll, showing Haugh with 11%, wasn’t garbage after all. But Haugh shouldn’t get anywhere near that level of support come November. In all likelihood, he’ll end up with around 2%-3. 4%, tops. Now, what happens if we take Haugh out of the equation?
General election (Haugh excluded)
Tillis – 46%
Hagan – 41%
Apparently, Haugh is taking support away from Tillis. In a race bound to be very close, it’s possible he could be a spoiler. So why is Haugh polling so well at the moment? I imagine it’s because of conservative discontent with Tillis. Remember, a majority of Republican primary voters did not vote for Tillis, despite his huge advantage in money. He’ll have to shore up his right flank, which is why doing things like supporting fracking comes into play. But he shouldn’t go overboard: the middle is still absolutely crucial, and a lot of those Haugh voters should come back into the Tillis fold eventually. Or not vote. It should be noted, also, that this poll is of registered voters, not likely voters, meaning that Civitas is probably underestimating Tillis’s lead.
Obama Approval 45%/54%
McCrory Approval 48%/38%
Interesting. So according to Civitas, McCrory is actually pretty popular. (Just two months ago, McCrory was in negative territory, according to Civitas). Perhaps McCrory’s approval tends to rebound when the legislature is out of session and he’s out of the spotlight? If that’s the case, the next poll might find voters down on the governor once again. (Note: this is actually McCrory’s favorable rating. Maybe voters like McCrory as a person, but find his performance as governor underwhelming? More likely, though, the favorable rating and the approval rating are closely tied together.)
Reelect Kay Hagan, or Time for Someone New?
35% Reelect
55% Someone New
This is a recurring question that pollsters use, and it’s almost always useless. Well, we know that Hagan will definitely win at least 35%, but that’s not exactly huge news. This result confirms that voters are down on Hagan, but this election will be a choice, not necessarily a referendum on her performance.
Vote Based on State Issues or National Issues?
51% National Issues
41% State Issues
The higher the percentage voting based on state issues, the better for Hagan. We should not expect, before the campaign begins in earnest, a large percentage voting on state issues, as national issues always trump state level goings-on. But if Hagan can make changes in NC part of the debate, that’s to her benefit.
Senate Race (by Race)
The sample is 72% white, 22% black, 5% other. Since this is a registered voters poll, the black proportion is a little on the high side. If Hagan can actually get African Americans to constitute 22% of the electorate, she’ll be in good shape, but that’s near-Obama levels of turnout that she can’t bank on.
Whites
49% Tillis
27% Hagan
8% Haugh
16% Undecided
Blacks
65% Hagan
8% Tillis
10% Haugh
Party Registration
35% GOP, 45% DEM, 20% UNA
This sample is representative of North Carolina’s registered voters.
Democrats
63% Hagan
15% Tillis
7% Haugh
Republicans
66% Tillis
8% Hagan
9% Haugh
Unaffiliated
47% Tillis
27% Hagan
11% Haugh
GOP voters in North Carolina are more unified behind their party nominee than their Democratic counterparts, unremarkable for this state. Unaffiliated voters, who are likely to be GOP-leaning in North Carolina, give Tillis a huge 20-point lead.
Sex
Men
41% Tillis
36% Hagan
10% Haugh
Women
37% Tillis
36% Hagan
8% Haugh
Tillis leads with both women and men. The women numbers should concern Hagan. If she fails to win women voters, she’s done for. The solution? Take a page from the Obama campaign playbook and talk about issues pertinent to those voters.
Those Undecided Voters
Now, let’s look at the “hard” undecided (e.g., they have absolutely no clue who they plan to vote for and do not lean toward one of the candidates) in the Senate race. They’re about 10% of the registered voters in this survey. They tend to be (1) residents of the Triangle, the Piedmont Triad, or Charlotte, (2) women, (3) younger than average, (4) registered as Democrat or unaffiliated, (5) moderate, and (6) white. This should not be construed as representing the “profile” of the typical undecided voter in this race, this is merely the groups representing pluralities of undecideds in each category. The undecided voters seem to be Democratic-leaning, but not overwhelmingly so, and they could end up not voting at all, which would probably not be a good thing for the Hagan campaign.
Averaging the Polls
In the past month, we’ve seen polls from Rasmussen, Public Policy Polling, and now Civitas (National Research). Let’s put them together and see what we find:
Tillis – 40%
Hagan – 39%
Haugh – 8%
Tillis leads by the slimmest of margins. Hagan can take solace in that the undecided voters here would probably be more responsive to a Democratic campaign. Tillis should be happy that he leads Hagan, in a registered voter sample, despite Haugh taking some of his support. Both candidates have jobs to do. At this point, Hagan’s job looks a little harder.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” – Mahatma Gandhi. The third stage is underway.
When the libertarian party produces someone of the moral caliber of Mahatma Gandhi, perhaps you’ll move to stage 3. However, given that great leadership requires EMPATHY, which conservatives (especially libertarians) do not posses, you will be waiting a long long time.
How much moral character does it take to legalize torture like the Repugnicans did? How much moral character does it take to legalize summary execution like the Demobrats did? Libertarians don’t have to prove we’re Gandhi, we just have to prove we’re better than demopublicans.
Torture is a war crime and all Republicans in the Bush administration should be prosecuted. All Democrats failing to prosecute should be prosecuted. There is no statute of limitations for war crimes.
Letting children starve to death because of lack of food stamps, letting old people die in the streets because you want to take their social security and letting children be forced into religious lie factories because of privatized education are far worse crimes than torture yet all libertarian believe in privatization.
Also, I’m sorry, I know lots of Libertarians who are just fine with the death penalty and execution, but if you’re against it, more power to you.
And you’re right Ray, you do just have to prove you’re better than the democrats and the republicans….and you have been weighed, measured and found wanting.
This website needs to stop judging third party candidates so arbitrarily. Does the editor of this website have a time machine? No? Then why on Earth do they assert that Sean Haugh will not receive significant support? Unless you KNOW, don’t make that call! It’s scumbag media pundits like you that cause third party candidates to lose in every election. This is why we can’t have nice things.
Maybe when we get more 3rd party senators and/or governors. You see, people realize that the libertarian platform SUCKS and there are only so many people that hate their fellow man sufficiently to wish them to be subject to billionare vigilantism.
If you can’t do it in Vermont or New Hampshire or Texas, you SURE can’t do it here were there are more people with empathy.
Prove it. Count all the votes. Repeal the ban on write-in voting. Until then there is no proof that we didn’t want the whole NCGA and Council of State to be 100% registered Libertarians last time.
“Billionaire vigilantism.” Is that anything like corporate welfare, which demopublicans support and libertarians would abolish?
Yeah, see to abolish corporate welfare, you would have to believe in government intervention in the market.
When a libertarian says they will ‘abolish corporate welfare’ what they mean is ALL government regulation, thus allowing corporations to pollute or kill whomever they wish. Sure, there would be ‘law enforcement’ but it would be so underfunded that corporate mercenaries could do whatever they wanted.
Wanna see a Libertarian world? Watch Robocop.
You’re nowhere without putting words in others’ mouths. So tell us when a demopublican says read my lips no new taxes what does that mean? When a demopublican says you can keep your health insurance period what does that mean?
How do you know I’m a statist or a demopublican anarchist? You put words in my mouth first fanatic.
We should have new taxes. All libertarians and conservatives WILL pay for the denial of anthrogenic global warming and the lives it will destroy if I have anything to say for it. And when the seas are rising and there are no more beaches any more, people will be confused and angry and want someone to blame.
I, for one, intend to point the finger in the direction of people like you. And also liar beyond all liars, they can keep their crappy insurance. I dislike Obama, but I love how he makes you anarchist sociopaths angry. He is wrong on many things, but that ‘if you like your insurance you can keep it’ slur is a TOTAL lie. You can keep your crappy insurance.
PLENTY of states allow write in voting and check the votes very well and libertarians still fail. Libertarians fail in Europe and other multi party democracies because their policies are insane. In fact, the only place that embraces Libertarianism is Somalia…oh wait, they have a government now.
Plenty of states aren’t NC. Stop falsifying the tallies and let the votes fall where they may.
There is ALWAYS an excuse for the libertarians. It’s the write ins. They lied in the media. We didn’t believe in fairies enough.
“General election (Haugh excluded)
Tillis – 46%
Hagan – 41%
Apparently, Haugh is taking support away from Tillis.”
No. Hagan is taking more support away from Haugh than Tillis is.
Hagan and Tillis pretend to be for compassion and prosperity, but only Haugh really is. Because only Haugh would end the wars that kill our countrymen and the debt hikes that stagnate our economy.
Compared to the millions that will die if Libertarian policies were implemented right here on the home front?
Why can’t the social darwinists just be honest about the things they want and the people they want to die.
Live and let live. That’s libertarianism. You own yourself. People should be made to pay for stepping on others’ rights but otherwise should be left alone. To secure these rights governments are instituted among men.
We do own ourselves. We, society and civilization, have decided that we want social benefits. You do not have a ‘right’ not to be taxed. Sorry, just because you want to live in a hut in the woods doesn’t mean the rest of us want to. You want to live in America, the majority get to decide the rules, but we can and will expose your selfish policies for what they are.
You could put your redistributionist rules in the Constitution if that’s what society really wanted. Stop depriving people of liberty and property without a court order. Charity at the point of a gun is not a caring approach.
If you take the most pristine document and let it sit in a septic tank every four years, maybe you should make another copy.
The constitution has become a piece of trash. Especially when Libertarians are the ones who defend it most. If they can interpret that sacred document in such warped ways as to prevent education and basic social benefits, then it is utterly and totally worthless.
Libertarians would do more to deprive people of their liberty and property than all the governments in the world combined by stripping them of their right to form a just and equitable government, leaving them vulnerable to vicious billionaire predators with no recourse.
Your claims of charity are meaningless, since charity is now out of fashion among the 1%. The Waltons take pride at not giving to charity, and why should people be forced to listen to religious lectures to receive a crust of bread when they could instead have a government provide them internet or roads or infrastructure so they could start a business.
Libertarians say they are for the Free Market, but they are anything but. There is no bigger hypocrite on earth than a Libertarian, and anyone who has 10 minutes to speak with them about their beliefs can easily see it.