Clinton’s Carolina Strategy

by | Jul 5, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics | 8 comments

Many people are wondering what’s going on in North Carolina this year. Is Hillary Clinton favored in the presidential race, or is Donald Trump? Why is the Clinton campaign spending so much money here when she doesn’t need to win it?

My take is that if Clinton isn’t ahead in the polls now, she’s at the very least in striking distance. This should be a lesser tier battleground state in a completely tied presidential race. But right now Clinton has built up such a substantial national lead that she can play in North Carolina, and her campaign can afford to spend a bunch of money here. Right now, it looks like she’s narrowly ahead in a state she really doesn’t need.

Even if Clinton doesn’t carry the state, she’ll at least force the Republicans to spend money here defending it. And every dollar spent in North Carolina is one less dollar that can be spent in a truly top-tier battleground state like Virginia or Colorado or Ohio.

Thus, the Clinton campaign’s North Carolina strategy this year is similar to the one that the Obama campaign deployed back in 2012. It’s still the cherry on top of a Democratic victory sundae, but one they’re happy to force Republicans to defend as long as they’re able to. One important difference: President Obama never personally campaigned in the state, while Clinton made an appearance in Raleigh on June 22nd and will be with him in Charlotte today.

This is an aggressive strategy on the part of the Clinton campaign and should be a warning to the Trump people: either cut into Clinton’s national lead and build a strong organization or watch North Carolina continue to be a battleground into the fall. And if North Carolina is a battleground, Trump is losing.

8 Comments

  1. W M Harrison Jr

    Trump and his personal history obviously make him a welcome target
    enabling Democratic Victories here in North Carolina and across the remaining US of A .
    If we do it right we can have a great unified Victory this November.
    Hillary and President Obama made an excellent presentation here in Charlotte yesterday.
    Hillary is intelligent, capable , and Presidential. She can not be effective as President unless we can work hard enough to Register and Early Vote new eligible voters , and Re-register and Early Vote shut ins and seniors in staged retirement facilities .
    If we want to win back North Carolina and the USA we must Register, get out the vote , and elect : Roy Cooper for our Governor , Democratic majorities in the NC House and Senate from Manteo to Murphy, and on the national ballot we must work and elect Hillary as President. She is a worthy, well qualified successor to our great ,intelligent , President Barack Hussein Obama.
    It will do us no good if we only elect Hillary; we must work hard, organize, volunteer, and make sure we elect Democratic majorities in Washington in both the The U S Senate and The US House.
    We will do all we can to :
    Register new eligible voters;
    work together, unite, organize, co-operate , organize nursing and retirement homes : register, encourage , and enable successful Early Voting by retirees as well as new and old voters, for example , re-registering, assisting and enabling experienced , retired , elder and disabled voters.
    The name of the game is to organize, Register, Early Vote, get out Absentee and get properly signed and mailed back to Boards of Elections, completed ballots.
    Last, but not least, we must organize volunteer drivers to drive remaining Democratic voters to their correct precincts for Early Voting on Election Day this November.
    This election is perhaps the most important in our lifetimes.
    My wife and I are 76 and 79.
    So now, let us unite all of our various voting blocs, organize and sign up volunteers, Register new voters, re-register retired nursing home bound voters, obtain absentee ballots for shut ins, organize all, and help enable Early Voting, and then on our November Election Day we will drive any remaining voters who are handicapped and immoblle to the polls to vote the straight Democratic Ticket .
    God bless America. This is a vote for America. Do we believe in democracy? Prove it!
    Please, let us all join together and make this happen.
    Let’s get it done.
    William M. “Bill” Harrison Jr
    203 Selkirk Place
    Durham NC 27707
    1(919) 949-1782

    • A. D. Reed

      Well said, Mr. Harrison.

  2. jean tate

    I agree. Plus, HRC knows she needs a Dem Senate to push her agenda. Burr is vulnerable. A big turnout in NC could help bring back the Senate.

  3. Jay Ligon

    Nate Silver had Hillary ahead by a lot last week. With Hillary less is more, campaigning isn’t her strong suit.

    • A. D. Reed

      I have to disagree with Jay Ligon, on one point. There’s this long-existent meme that “campaigning isn’t [Hillary’s] strong suit,” but it’s really not even half-true — maybe a quarter-true, at most.

      First, of course, is the fact that she won, against Bernie who is a master at a certain kind of campaigning; oratory that sounds absolutely fresh and real and from the heart and spontaneous, even if he’s said the exact same speech four hundred times. It reflects his true beliefs and his passion, and it leaves little room for nuance or detail.

      That sort of campaigning in front of crowds of thousands is a very traditional male way of reaching out. Say it loud, say it clear, shout into the microphone, rouse the emotions of your listeners, or as Obama rallied in Charlotte yesterday, get ’em “all fired up, all fired up, all fired up! ALL FIRED UP!!!!!”

      Very few women do that sort of campaigning well, for a variety of reasons. For one, women — certainly of Hillary’s (and my) generation, but also today — are taught NOT to be outspoken and pushy and hyperconfident, but to raise their hands in classrooms, and to let others have their say. That kind of training that is reinforced throughout a lifetime is hard to overcome. Hillary tries it, not very comfortably, and from time to time it works, but usually not too well. Elisabeth Warren, on the other hand, after 20+ years as a law professor challenging her students in the Harvard method, is much better at it — but when you look at all women candidates, from Deborah Ross to Nancy Pelosi to local county commissioners, it’s generally not their forte. A few like Sarah Palin are good at throwing out red meat, but only a few.

      A second thing is the nature of microphones and audio systems, which are generally designed by and for lower vocal registers (by and for men). Most audio systems are much better at capturing baritone voices, making women’s voices sound screechy.

      But in another kind of campaigning, on TV ads with no shouting, in smaller groups in gymnasiums and public forums and Q&A sessions and debates (and 11 hours of grilling by Trey Gowdy) — Clinton is an excellent campaigner.

      She’s just not one of the guys.

  4. BRAD

    I so agree with disgusted. All we have to do is get out and vote. We would not be in this mess in NC if only people had voted in 2010 and 2014. Shame on all of us, but can turn things around bit by bit. Please, please, please vote!!

  5. Dan R

    “Trump is losing”.

    I concur with your conclusion. It would be difficult to argue otherwise without drawing gales of derisive laughter.

    • Maurice Murray III

      I agree with Dan.

      By the way, Trumpet’s high unfavorable’s and a pending Democratic wave put North Carolina’s senate race into the tossup category. Burr is vulnerable because his policies are very similar to Trump’s.

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