Commissioner of Agriculture Race: Steve Troxler (R, incumbent) vs. Walter Smith (D)

This is a below-the-radar race, and will remain that way through Election Day. Steve Troxler is the incumbent, first elected in 2004 in a very tight and controversial election. Since then, he has enjoyed much larger victories, including in 2012 against Yadkinville poultry farmer Walter Smith. Smith is challenging Troxler once again after achieving a respectable 47% of the vote against him four years ago.

Agriculture is the state’s number one industry and has a $76 billion economic impact. Troxler says he wants to lead the way to a $100 billion figure. Though Troxler is well-regarded, Smith has a number of criticisms about his tenure. The Winston-Salem Journal says the race will be a “rare exception” in an era of partisanship, as old-school campaigning will matter more than sound bites and both candidates are considered men of integrity.

In the Republican primary, Troxler easily defeated gun-rights activist Andy Stevens. Troxler is probably most known by those not in the agriculture sector for his decision to ban guns from the NC State Fair, which is under the department’s jurisdiction. The primary was won by a margin of 38 points.

Troxler won the general election of 2012 with 53% of the vote. In most counties, he did better than Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and outperformed him significantly in the Raleigh and Charlotte media markets. Troxler even won Wake County, which has become a Democratic bastion in recent years.

Going forward, Troxler has the advantage due to name recognition and his long record of service. The election will be decided on issues, but even here the presidential campaign will have some effect. Generally, the better Hillary Clinton does in the state, the more of a chance Walter Smith has of upsetting Steve Troxler. But Smith faces an uphill climb no matter what and Republicans should be confident about keeping this seat on the Council of State in their hands.

Race Rating: Likely Republican

2012 Result
53.2% Troxler
47.8% Smith

Voter Registration
40.3% Democratic
30.5% Republican
28.7% Unaffiliated

70.3% White
22.3% Black
7.4% Other

Results in Other Elections
2014 Senate
48.8% Tillis
47.3% Hagan

2012 President
50.4% Romney
48.4% Obama

2012 Governor
54.6% McCrory
43.2% Dalton

2010 Senate
54.8% Burr
43.1% Marshall

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.