Well the race for the 2^nd Congressional district is starting to get interesting.  Last week political prognosticator Charlie Cook changed his forecast for the district from ‘Solid Republican’ to ‘Likely Republican’ but apparently only for Clay Aiken.  In the report Cook mentions factors like Aiken’s high name recognition in the district, his potential to raise large amounts of money, and the possibility of Hagan’s turnout operations benefiting down-ballot candidates.  Mostly though, Cook’s change of perspective came after he sat down with Mr. Aiken and was impressed by his intelligence and grasp of the issues.  Now I understand where Mr. Cook is coming from.  I’ve had the opportunity to sit down and talk with Mr. Aiken as well, and he is impressive.  I freely admit that before meeting Mr. Aiken, the phrase ‘Hollywood dilettante’ crossed my mind more than once, but the few minutes I had to speak with him quickly dispelled those notions.

During his article though, Cook made almost no mention of the primary or Aiken’s main challenger for the nomination; former Commerce Secretary Keith Crisco.  It would be a mistake to count Crisco out, or count the district at won for Ellmers if Aiken should lose the primary.  Mr. Crisco is an established figure who probably has been in politics longer than Aiken has been alive.  He is a moderate Democrat with strong roots in the conservative parts of the district that Aiken doesn’t have a prayer of winning.  Most importantly though, Crisco is communicating with the voters where Aiken is not.  Crisco is running ads on TV, and has signs sprouting up throughout the district.  Now I’m not one to count billboards or yard signs, but in this case it gives the appearance that Crisco is active and has support in the district where Aiken has none, and as Thomas always says ‘campaigns are all about the optics.’

All of this raises the question ‘why isn’t Aiken on TV yet?’  Especially since, in the words of his campaign spokesperson, “The more voters know about Clay, the more they like him.”  Either Aiken is counting the primary as a foregone conclusion like Mr. Cook, or his fundraising hasn’t been as strong as everyone expected it to be.  I personally suspect the latter.  Throughout the race Aiken has been banking on his ‘Claymates’ (40-50 something conservative white women) to come out and vote for him, but I’ve yet to see any polling that bears this theory out.

Crisco has been running a solid campaign, and as a moderate who can pull conservative Dems and Unaffiliated voters in more conservative parts of the district is the better choice to take on Ellmers in the fall.  Any Dem can pull votes in Wake or Cumberland counties, but to beat Ellmers it’s going to take someone who can push the margins in the rest of the district, and in my mind that candidate is Crisco.