Roy Cooper’s challenge is the same one shared by every non-incumbent: the burden of proof is on the challenger. He has to prove that McCrory’s governorship has been bad for North Carolina.
For incumbents like McCrory, it’s innocent until proven guilty. Roy Cooper knows a little about being a prosecutor and the case against McCrory is going to have to be his tightest yet.
McCrory’s job is easier, and the national economic recovery has been an asset. Regardless of whether it’s the economic climate nationally or a “Carolina Comeback” rooted in local policy changes, voters are feeling a little more optimistic nowadays. Things could change. A recession may be on the horizon. But at this point, it’s difficult to see McCrory losing because of a bad economy.
In better economic times, challengers like Cooper turn to another strategy, the “alternative path” strategy. The message is always the same: “Things are getting better, but some people are being left behind. We can’t just rest on our laurels. We can do better.” To work, it needs to tap into a restlessness that’s already there. When an incumbent governor loses in an upset, it’s usually because they fell victim to this strategy. The electorate turned out to be more restless than they thought.
This strategy tends to work because the incumbent’s campaign is caught off guard. They fail to respond because they don’t see the threat. Fortunately for Team McCrory, they’re unlikely to be caught off guard: this is, after all, the top governor’s race in the country.
McCrory’s response to Cooper’s message will ironically echo the 2012 campaign strategy of Barack Obama. Team McCrory will say that after decades of Democrat control, North Carolina is finally starting to get back on its feet. Look at all the progress we’ve made in four years. Unemployment down. X new jobs. More statistics. Do we really want to go back to the same policies that got us in this mess?
This is an effective line, because four years is really not a long time. And once voters see some progress, they’re very hesitant to suddenly make a change again. This hesitancy helped Obama in 2012 and it will help McCrory in 2016 unless the elections this year take place in a climate of severe economic anxiety.
Right now, the polls seem to bear that out. Three polls for the governor’s race were released in February and McCrory was ahead in two of them.
The latest controversy over Charlotte’s transgender bathroom ordinance also helps the governor. Despite what you might read in the editorial columns of our state’s newspapers, the bathroom provision is not something broadly supported by North Carolinians. McCrory has a firm stance on this issue while Cooper has been silent. He’s been silent about a lot of things, while has irritated some on the left – and is probably one reason the Winston-Salem Journal endorsed his primary opponent, Ken Spaulding.
The governor could still lose and this won’t be a blowout – not by any means. The state is too divided for that to happen. But the national economic recovery and the set of issues in this race slightly favor four more years for Pat McCrory.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Higher tax burden – with new sales taxes to go into effect soon.
Growth in low-wage jobs
The public education debacle
McCrory is vulnerable. His own party hates him. Here’s to hoping Roy runs a great campaign – and Democrats actually vote this time around.
First off, it is not Democratic turn-out that has ever been the problem in electing Democratic candidates in NC., it is the use of easily manipulated electronic voting machines that are protected from internal inspections by proprietary property laws – which should render these machines ‘unfit’ for the purpose of counting votes. In what type of democracy is it ‘illegal’ to verify the accuracy of machine counted votes? Secondly, if 2 out of 3 polls are now showing McCracky’s reelection chances improving, the powers that be are greasing the skids to steal yet another election; and that’s something that should concern North Carolinians because these are the very same people who managed to put Tillis in the Senate.
Voting machines? Now that’s a new one. It’s those darn “voting machines!” Another right wing conspiracy exposed.
I would add to your list the Tillis-McCrory I-77 toll lane debacle. He is going to lose voters in the Republican rich areas of northern Mecklenburg and southern Iredell. I have actually heard die-hard Republicans say they would not vote for him because of the mess this toll lane has caused and will cause.
And also because McCrory is not a die-hard Republican and they know it. 🙂
I think the caution for Cooper is warranted, as it seems to me that voters more often vote against someone or something than they vote “for” the person running. If they are happy, the tendency to stay home can be strong, but if they are angry, I believe the impetus to go to the polls is greater. For me, the question is whose anger is greater? The base GOP totally ticked off at the so-called establishment GOP or the minority voters, women, and the left behind under or unemployed? If the presidential campaign is any barometer, the GOP base is far more angry. I also think the generally low turnout in the Democratic primaries/caucus states does not bode well for Democrats down the ticket. In NC, you can add the impediments that are now in place for voters.
I think it could go either way. Yes, a lot of Reps will be soft in their support for McCrory. For that reason alone, I think the race is a nailbiter. On the other hand, Cooper has some coalition cracks to repair, some Dems think he could have been more aggressive on certain things, and one constituency wants to know why he didn’t go after that Charlotte cop. I don’t know why this is considered the “top governor race”, but it shouldn’t be a yawner.
This blog has blinders on, and too conveniently ignores all the McCrory’s minuses. Are voters, especially those in the center who will determine the winner, supposed to forget about the coal ash fiasco? McCrory’s reneging on his “no new abortion restriction” pledge? His horrible record on making agency appointees (can you say ‘Wos,” “Skvarla, and “Tata”? His rubber stamping of the GOP majority’s idiotic and regressive bills that penalize women, and that hurt urban areas, the disadvantaged, and middle class? That even his NCGA GOP colleagues don’t consider him a serious actor to be reckoned with? The likely adverse impact of a Trump candidacy on GOP slate fortunes? The curious payouts he’s gotten from corporate boards? And let’s all face it, McCrory has a very difficult time coming across with any thoughtfulness, depth, or gravitas.
Yes, as in incumbent who hasn’t singlehandedly ruined the state, McCrory has an advantage, and he “should” win. The economy is fair (but, please, there’s no “Carolina Comeback” beyond what the nation has experienced as a whole), no major scandals (that have caught up to him yet anyway), and he has name recognition, all of which is probably being reflected in current polling. But while McCrory has been using his bully (I should say his bullshxt) pulpit, his Dem opponent hasn’t even gotten through the primary yet and has thus not up’ed the volume against this gov’s many assailable shortcomings.
Lots and lots of conjecture in this article…..