Senate District 19 – Sen. Wesley Meredith (R) vs. Former Rep. Billy Richardson (D)

Senate District 19 comprises part of Cumberland County. The district has a quite interesting shape, drawn for the benefit of the current occupant of that seat, Republican Wesley Meredith, owner of a successful landscaping business. But even gerrymandering has its limits. While Republicans tried to make the seat as safe as possible for their party, Cumberland County is just too Democratic to carve out a solid red district, or even a district that leans red, for that matter. The result? District 19 is the most Democratic seat in the State Senate currently held by a Republican. This makes Meredith arguably the most vulnerable Senate GOPer. It’s one that Democrats will definitely have to pick up if they ever want to take back the upper chamber, and if they have a good night on November 4th, Meredith is almost certainly a goner.

The district has an interesting electoral history. Democrat Tony Rand occupied this seat for forever and also served as Senate Majority Leader. Rand resigned in 2009 to become chairman of the State Parole Commission, and fellow Democrat Margaret H. Dickson was appointed to succeed him. Dickson probably would have had a long career in the Senate, but for the 2010 red wave that put even safe Democratic seats like hers in peril.

Sen. Wesley Meredith, the Republican candidate.

Dickson ended up being defeated by Meredith, who instantly became the most vulnerable Republican heading into the 2012 electoral cycle, despite a favorable redistricting which unkindly placed Dickson’s home in an adjacent district, denying her the opportunity for a rematch. Instead, Democrats nominated George Tatum, a flawed candidate who had resigned from his position as head of the state DMV in controversy. Tatum’s baggage prevented him from running a strong campaign and Meredith won by 8 points.

This time, Democrats aren’t going to let this seat slip away from them that easily. Their nominee is Billy Richardson, an attorney who previously served in the NC House and is pretty much a generic Democrat. With the lean of the district and the legislature being unpopular, Richardson could give Meredith a run for his money.

Former Rep. Billy Richardson, the Democratic candidate.

Speaking of money, a huge campaign warchest is one thing Meredith has that Richardson doesn’t. As of the last reporting period, Meredith had over $277,000 cash on hand, compared to Richardson’s $79,711. That’s a cash advantage that could prove decisive. Another factor in Meredith’s favor? The midterm environment and a likely enthusiasm gap that will favor Republicans. Notably, the 19th is the one Senate district that went for Obama that went for Richard Burr in 2010, an illustration of the more conservative electorate here in midterm years.

In addition, Meredith has the advantage of incumbency. He’s now a two-term senator. By failing to put up a strong candidate against him in 2012, Democrats have allowed him to become entrenched. This is a pure toss-up race, and Richardson will make Meredith sweat. But the combination of incumbency, campaign cash, and a Republican midterm environment could carry this “accidental” senator to a third term.

Counties in district: Cumberland (part)

District Rating: Pure Toss-Up

2012 Result
53.9% Meredith
46.1% Tatum

Voter Registration
41.7% Democrat
31.6% Republican
26.4% Unaffiliated

64.0% White
25.1% Black
10.9% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
49.9% Obama
49.4% Romney

2012 Governor
51.0% McCrory
46.9% Dalton

2010 Senate
53.3% Burr
44.9% Marshall

2008 Senate
53.5% Hagan
44.0% Dole

Social Media Support
Sen. Wesley Meredith – 335
Former Rep. Billy Richardson – 264

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.