Data versus enthusiasm

by | Nov 7, 2016 | Editor's Blog | 5 comments

This weekend, a couple of photos on twitter summed up the difference between the Clinton approach to the election this year and the Trump approach. WRAL reporter Candace Sweat tweeted, “Just blocks away from each other, both @NCGOP & @NCDemParty headquarters make last minute push before Election Day.” In the photo of the Democratic headquarters, volunteers were sitting around tables with sheets of paper in front of them and talking on phones. At GOP headquarters, they were putting together yard signs. Clinton and the Democrats are counting on big data. Trump and the Republicans are relying on enthusiasm.

Signs and other symbols of campaigns might be an indication of momentum, but they can also just be a bunch of signs. A ride through rural North Carolina finds a bevy of Trump/Pence and McCrory and “Run, Forest, Run” signs. Alone, though, the proliferation of signs doesn’t usually translate into votes.

Trump has certainly captured the imagination of a portion of the Republican base and they’re fired up about voting for him. That’s been Trump’s entire campaign. He measures how well he’s doing by the size of the crowds that go to his shows. Now, Republicans seem to be gauging their strength by how they’re doing in the sign war.

Democrats, in contrast, believe in data and have since Obama’s 2008 campaign. They’ve been improving it ever since. County offices were complaining that they didn’t have enough signs from the campaigns. Democratic strategists, though, have put their faith in their ability to identify, contact, and put voters into the polls with ground troops, not motivational speeches and campaign paraphernalia.

At least that’s what it looks like from my vantage point, but I may be wrong. The GOP may have a fierce GOTV program in place like the 72 Hour Task Force developed by Karl Rove. Their early vote numbers are up considerably over 2012. However, a look into the numbers reveals that about 55% of those people voted early in 2012 and another 21% voter on Election Day. Nineteen percent didn’t vote in 2012.

In contrast, 63% of Democrats who showed up this year voted early in 2012 and 17% voted on Election Day. Another 18% did not vote in 2012 at all. Their numbers mirror their early vote totals from 2012. They do, however, have a lower percentage of African-American voters than 2012.

The big question is, who are the unaffiliated voters who surged this year? Almost a third of them didn’t vote in 2012 and 49% of those people are under 35 years old. These are probably targets of the Clinton GOTV program. The Clinton campaign is using a multitude data points, not just voter registration, to identify targets. Polls show younger voters breaking disproportionally for her and there are enough to make up for the missing African-American voters.

That maybe what data versus enthusiasm looks like. We’ll know tomorrow.

5 Comments

  1. Jim Bartow

    I think the Democrats actually made it hard to get a lawn sign.

    Some people think putting up a lawn sign is the equivalent of volunteering, it is not. I have some friends that put up lots of signs at the end of their cul de sac and think they are doing something important. If you keep the sign away from them maybe they will be forced to do a phone banking shift or something.

    The Coordinated Campaign had a very interesting strategy this cycle. Volunteers calling targeted supporters and asking them to volunteer. The newly acquired volunteers called more supporters asking them to volunteer.
    Then send volunteers out to register voters way into the cycle (or phone bank to ask people to volunteer), and finally canvas unlikely voters (ignoring likely voters, unless you are calling them to volunteer) just as early voting is starting.

    Why does this work? First you get a lot of volunteers, I mean where it worked they got a LOT of volunteers. Since your volunteers were not calling the maybes or the Trump supporters there was no negative emotional cost to volunteering. If it is not painful and I feel good about myself, I’m going to volunteer again. By going late into the cycle with Voter Registration and no door knocking, there was less annoying of your potential voters. You were contacting voters when they could do something about it. Walking the street or door knocking with a “Register to Vote” clip board is not emotionally painful and with so many volunteers with clipboards you got a LOT of registrations.

    Finally when it was time to make the push, you had a LOT of happy volunteers willing to canvass (or call to get more volunteers), a LOT of registered voters and voters who didn’t hate you.
    And when you ask people to volunteer, they might not volunteer, but they sure are going to do their part and vote, and maybe they will be encouraged to talk more about the election to their friends and family in a positive way.

    And then, if you wanted, and you volunteered for multiple shifts they gave you a lawn sign.

    Brilliant!

    • Jim Bartow

      Wow, that was not my experience at all. What county?

  2. Norma Munn

    Hope to see you in the winner’s circle come Nov. 9! And if not, thanks for running. It is the only way to make change.

  3. Jay Ligon

    Good luck to you Thomas!

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