Democratic Senate Primary Close – for Now

by | Jan 25, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, US Senate | 3 comments

Deborah Ross may indeed coast to a landslide victory in the Democratic primary two months from now, but at present things are looking pretty close. Both PPP and Civitas show Ross with leads of single-digits over her nearest opponent.

For those not paying attention, Ross is the … left-of-center former legislator, former attorney for Triangle Transit, former state director for the ACLU and the establishment candidate. Kevin Griffin is the businessman, job-creator, not-a-politician guy who says he’s best-poised to beat Burr. And Chris Rey is the young, black mayor of Spring Lake with the inspiring backstory.

The PPP poll: 19% Ross, 14% Griffin, 10% Rey, 3% Reeves. The Civitas poll: 13% Ross, 6% Griffin, 3% Rey. And the average of these two polls: 16% Ross, 10% Griffin, 6.5% Rey.

Of course, money talks in a big way. If Ross goes up on television and her opponents don’t, the huge number of undecided voters will land in her column very quickly. And that’s what most people are predicting: it’s Ross, without a runoff. The Democratic establishment coalescing around her should put her over the 40% threshold.

PPP also polled the general election against Burr. Burr beats Ross 43/33, beats Rey 44/32, and beats Griffin 42/35. These numbers look like 2010, when the national environment was really working in Burr’s favor.

Democrats might look at this poll, consider that Trump will most likely be the GOP standard-bearer, and be optimistic about making this seat competitive, but I have my doubts. Just as Republicans would be ill-advised to run a Ted Cruz clone in, say, Michigan, nominating someone on the far-left to run against a seasoned incumbent like Richard Burr is probably not the best idea. Then again, the establishment of both parties have exercised questionable judgment lately.

3 Comments

  1. JC Honeycutt

    The ACLU is “far-left”? C’mon, they also represent conservatives who think the government shouldn’t be in their business. Isn’t the freedom to exercise one’s civil liberties without government intervention one of the conservative Ten (or however many they have) Commandments?

    I have to agree w/ Mr. Murray that Burr–despite his time in the Senate–is “unknown”, at least to his constituents: I hate Thumb Tillis, but at least he (i.e. his staff) responds to my e-mails. If Burr were to respond directly to anyone who’s not a donor of his, they would probably faint dead away from surprise.

    • Lee Mortimer

      I don’t agree with any of Burr’s positions and will vote for whoever is his Democratic opponent. But 2.5 years ago, when United Airlines completely screwed up our return reservation from Europe, I sought help from Sen. Hagan, Congressman Price, and Sen. Burr. Burr’s office was the only one that came forward, and they helped us obtain a satisfactory resolution.

  2. Maurice Murray III

    Why is Kevin Griffin most competitive against Burr, according to PPP, in the hypothetical general election match-up?

    By the way, Burr is unknown and subject to the national environment and media attention that Cruz and Trump are receiving.

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