Last night, Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for president. He’s won only 40% of the votes cast in the GOP primaries. About 65% of the country views him unfavorably. In presidential years, the top of the ticket almost always sets the pace of the election.
In North Carolina, HB2 has blown up in Pat McCrory’s face. Recent polls show that he’s seriously trailing Roy Cooper and his approval ratings are upside down. He’s not providing any buffer from the effects of Trump.
The state Republican Party is in disarray. They ousted their chairman last week, alienating much of their activist base. Their choice of a replacement, former Congressman and former Chair Robin Hayes, may help make the party more functional again, but the whole process may just widen the divide within the state GOP.
While a lot can change in the next six months, Democrats in North Carolina should start preparing for a wave. The political environment in the state is highly polarized but favors Democrats heavily right now. In Roy Cooper, they have a strong contender for governor who is putting together an organization and outraising his incumbent opponent. In the US Senate race, Deborah Ross is keeping incumbent Senator Richard Burr in check, trailing him by only a very few points. A recent poll shows voters prefer a Democratic candidate for state legislature by 7 points. If the election were held today, Democrats in North Carolina would roll to victory.
In 2014, a national Republican wave hit the rest of the country. It missed North Carolina, largely as a result of dissatisfaction with the direction Republicans took the state. Democrats picked up three legislative seats. While Thom Tillis defeated Kay Hagan, he won by less than two points and received less than 50% of the vote.
This year, with a presidential level turnout and HB2 motivating the base, Democrats should prepare to put voters in the polls across the state. Hillary Clinton put a state coordinator on the ground this week, signaling that she’s ready to play here. Democrats need to quit talking about districts they can’t win and start looking for ones they can.
Democrats should be looking to expand their playing field. In 2008, Kay Hagan won nine of the 13 current Congressional Districts. In 2012, a low point for North Carolina Democrats in presidential years, the Congressional vote was less than six points in districts 7, 8, 9, and 13. Those are places to start. If Democrats hope to take back Congress and the legislature, they’re going to need to be adventurous, not cautious, in a year that might offer big opportunities.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Unfortunately, those down ballot Democrats in an expanded field are going to have to find ways to distance themselves from the Presidential Candidate – who is going to lose big in most NC Congressional Districts.
Luckily, the GOP did away with straight-ticket voting.
Mr. Lizak:
More specifics, please? I ask because the NC Congressional Districts are so gerrymandered that even when statewide totals favor Democrats, those voters are crammed into three or four districts, ensuring that Republicans get the rest. So that possible voting pattern — Trump for president and Democrats for Congress or the legislature — is irrelevant.
That’s because the presidential vote is statewide, and since the electoral college is based on statewide totals, Congressional-district gerrymandering doesn’t have any impact there. All votes count equally, regardless of Congressional district.
I personally think it’s just as likely that Clinton will win statewide — especially with NC’s large African American and Hispanic populations, and its vote for Obama in 2008 — as that Trump would eke out a victory here. But even if voters who don’t like Clinton support Trump, and vote solidly for Democrats for Congress or state seats, their votes are still gerrymandered beyond repair.
Which brings me back to my original request: more details that clarify your point?
While Hillary may be competitive or even win statewide in NC, the absence of straight ticket voting will reduce Democrat votes in down ballot races including statewide Council of State offices and judicial races as well as legislative candidates running in districts. The removal of straight ticket voting and same-day registration will hurt Democrat candidates much more than any of the other election law changes like Voter ID and no out of precinct vote counting.
I’d like some clarification on YOUR point. Because one of us is confused. A gerrymander has no impact on statewide races, since it’s based on the total of votes across the state. So gerrymandering doesn’t impact the races for president, governor, or the US Senate (along with members of the Council of State and some of the judicial races). And if the voters in, say, NC 13 (or NC 02, or whatever it turns out to be) vote for a Democratic candidate to replace George Holding, it doesn’t matter that the district was drawn to protect him — he still loses.
I think the point Mr. Lizak was making — and I don’t necessarily agree with him, by the way — is that the down ballot Democratic candidates (in, for example, NC 13) should draw a distinction between themselves and Hillary Clinton because voters in those districts don’t like Hillary Clinton and might be less inclined to split their ballot — preferring to choose the Republican who is CLEARLY nothing like Clinton than the Democrat who MIGHT be like her. I think that’s a mistake — the same mistake that killed Kay Hagan in 2014, in fact. Tacking to the “center” (which doesn’t really exist anymore) to appease the right wing base, is a mistake. Those non the far right aren’t going to cross over, and those few who remain in the center — even if they can be convinced that you’re slightly less evil — are so rare that they can’t move the needle for you anyway. As a challenger, if you can’t show a demonstrable difference between your platform and your incumbent opponent’s, you’re going to lose. In Hagan’s case, even incumbency wasn’t protection enough. Right or wrong, the notion of the “political middle” is about as quaint and obsolete as the steam engine.
I agree. When you’re in a chaotic situation you rally your forces and attack! That’s the way to win. This is the opening you can drive a wedge through. Let’s just hope the Democratic nominee understands the need for coattails.
The most obvious place to start is to win the next statewide election on June 7. June 7 is an election that could shift control of the NC Supreme Court.
If the incumbent justice fails to advance from the primary, control of the NC Supreme Court will change no matter what happens in November.
June 7 is only weeks away.
Is anybody at home in the Democratic Party?
Does the top vote-getter on June 7 win the seat? Or do the top two advance to a runoff in November? There are 4 candidates (including the incumbent) on the ballot in June.
The top two advance to November.
However, if the incumbent is eliminated in the primary, control of the court will shift away from the reactionaries and to a more sensible middle.
Everything should be done to alert people to vote for Sabra Jean Faires or possibly Mike Morgan.
Getting those two to be the top vote-getters in the June 7 primary would be a major victory in returning one branch of state government to sanity.
Vote for Mike Morgan.
Christian Cano for Congress in District 9.