Did you know that North Carolina is holding a Senate race in 2016? One might forget considering how remarkably quiet the news has been on that front. There’s mixed news for Democrats. Two weeks ago, the Burr campaign raised over $1 million in one night, a sure way to give potential foes cold feet. On the other hand, Kay Hagan has returned to Twitter, tweeting for the first time since her November defeat. She tweeted a picture of her and her husband at the UNC-Boston College game, and also a statement about Dean Smith’s death. While she’s certainly not “in” by any means, she at least wants to keep her options open.
But Democrats have a number of other candidates to choose from besides Hagan. The top ten candidates most likely to be the nominee have been ranked below. Much will change in the next few months as the field becomes clearer.
10. Allen Thomas Even for NC political junkies, the name Allen Thomas probably doesn’t ring a bell. He’s mayor of Greenville and there was talk about a potential Thomas candidacy around a month ago. Democrats think he has the right profile to appeal to centrist voters in Eastern North Carolina. Most observers, though, think Thomas has his eye on Walter Jones’ seat in Congress.
9. Brad Miller Miller was the darling of the BlueNC crowd back in the day, and he’s probably still kicking himself for not running for Senate back in 2008. There are concerns that Miller has been out of the political game for too long and has a profile too liberal to run statewide, but if he throws his hat in he would be able to rely on the support of progressives in the primary. Look for Miller to seek a return to Washington – but for the 4th congressional district once David Price retires.
8. Cal Cunningham Military experience, strong progressive credentials, past campaign experience. The problem? Last time Cunningham won an election, he shared a ballot with George W. Bush and Al Gore. Cunningham also created a lot of resentment among Democrats for seeking a runoff against Elaine Marshall in 2010 and he still needs to mend fences within the party. It wouldn’t be a surprise for Cunningham to be a candidate for something in 2016, just not for Senate.
7. Heath Shuler Shuler’s track record of success in a conservative district and centrist politics makes the DSCC swoon, but his current job as lobbyist for Duke Energy could make a statewide bid problematic. Shuler, of course, has no problem with it – he’s making money and doesn’t appear to have much interest in a Senate bid. If he actually expressed interest in running, he’d be much higher on this list.
6. Tom Ross Ross was ousted as UNC President and it would be perfect revenge if that precipitated the defeat of Richard Burr in 2016. While Ross would love to see Burr go down, it’s not clear if he has any interest in taking him on himself. A recent poll found Ross trailing Burr by 9, with few voters expressing awareness of Ross’ firing, an indication of how little most voters pay attention to the goings-on in Raleigh.
5. Mike McIntyre McIntyre clearly doesn’t want to leave politics forever, it’s just uncertain how soon he wants to get back in the game, and in any case he would probably have difficulty getting past a runoff. Still, his fundraising prowess would make him a formidable candidate.
4. Grier Martin Martin has been touted as a candidate for statewide office in the past, including against Burr back in 2010, but hasn’t yet pulled the trigger. Martin represents a district in Raleigh and his military experience would be an asset against Burr. He’s recently made news for sponsoring a bill that would end partisan redistricting in North Carolina, and also complaining about renovations in the General Assembly.
3. Janet Cowell The State Treasurer had a good week when SEANC executive director and Cowell critic Dana Cope came under fire from the N&O and was forced to resign after possibly inappropriate use of funds. Still, Democrats are skeptical about Cowell’s ability to mount a strong campaign against Burr, and her hiring former Rep. Edgar Starnes (R-Caldwell) as senior policy adviser could indicate that she’s planning on staying Treasurer.
2. Anthony Foxx Foxx has already denied interest in a Senate bid, but if he changes his mind his name instantly shoots to near the top of the list. Mayor of a large city, experience in the federal government, young, minority … Foxx is pretty much a political consultant’s dream candidate. But the reality is less rosy. I’ve already argued that Foxx’s unpopularity in the Charlotte suburbs would make him a weaker candidate than many imagine, so I won’t go into that here.
1. Kay Hagan Hagan’s position in the Senate race is pretty much equivalent to Hillary Clinton’s in the presidential race: if she wants it, it’s hers. Hagan’s plans, though, are far less clear than Clinton’s. A poll from PPP showed her trailing Burr by 6 points, and her approval rating is a terrible 38/54. I’m not sure why Democrats think she’d make such a great candidate, and I’m not sure why she’d be eager to run after what she went through in the last campaign, but whatever. Expect Hagan to make a decision by June.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Quit trying to make this into a story. Dems do not want Kay Hagan to run for anything, not on the Democratic ticket, at least. Her kissing us off in the last campaign was her kiss of death. Republicans are just afraid that truly progressive candidates will soon enough come back into fashion and sweep the popular vote, as they should and will. Someone with the appeal of, (just sayin), Jeff Jackson.
As a Democrat I decidedly declare Kay Is NOT my choice and will not be my choice even if it means not casting a senatorial vote.
My comment is really???? We need a strong progressive candidate. I’m Behind cal Cunningham. That he pissed of the Marshall group only adds to his bobs fides. Go Cal!!!
The upside of a campaign by Tom Ross.is that it might galvanize people from both parties and alumni and supporters of our public university system…not only for his own race but to encourage good candidates to run for many races……by the way, it has the added benefit of sending a clear signal to the world that NC is serious about turning things around……I like the “sweet justice” in that scenario…I really do….
Kay Hagan? Why not just save the money and not run a democratic candidate. She ran one of the worst campaigns on record, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against the man who represented everything uber-conservative done by the NCGA,
BTW, are we sure she’s even a dem? Her voting record is not clear–but then again she has to wait for polls before she makes any decisions. Positions made via polling are not only wasteful–any old donkey could do it–but it shows that she has no positions of her own that she wants people to know.
Brad Miller should stop kicking himself and get back into the political arena where he can provide an alternative to the Art Pope AFP machine.
I suspect certain folks want to entreat Senator Hagan to run again in order to make money running and/or working on the campaign and build a resume for the next cycle. Her campaign manager was promoted to deputy director of the DSCC for “failing the least” last cycle. I concur with Brad and Larry: Senator Burr can be beaten by a real populist who pushes issues that the people care about and is seen as an authentic voice for Main Street. (As an aside folks should study just how many votes Mr. Haugh received and where he received them from.)
A learned voice heard from , thanks Randy V. Nice to have some people to choose from, but Senator Hagan, should not be on the list. If you can’t be a Democrat don’t run on the our ticket. Her campaign would be run out of Washington, waste of time and money. And here again, we have Shuler and McIntyre, with Hagan’s problem , they don’t run as Democrats,they are not moderates, they are GOP light. And here is the other problem: who will the Party…. Chair, staff and consultants support ? Will ,they let Washington tell them, who to support and raise money for, can there be a fair and competitive primary? Say Shuler wants to come back, backed by the HQ, DSCC and they bring back Andrew Whalen, to run the campaign again. Be there, done that. Nice guy, but he just lost another campaign for SC Governor. So the question will be .. will the rank and file be able to participate in who run for Senate in 16, or will the decision be made by Washington, the paid consultants, the Presidential candidate ? Two more years of putting NC , on the back burner, will be the final nail in the coffin. The Party has a real choice to make , fight for NC , organize the local counties , pick the candidates who care, raise money to fight our issues or let the national organizations and Presidential campaign do to us , what they done for the last 6 years? We are all waiting to see …..
Dude…who the hell told you Democrats want another round with Hagan? I suspect your Civitas buds sold you on that . Hagan is not number one on any Democrats list that I have spoken.. So move on …you can also skip Schuler…as moderate as some Democrats like to paint themselves you can be assured progressives…you know the base…do not want the smell of a Blue Dog on the ticket ..so that takes off Schuler and God forbid Mike McIntyre! Brad is a really smart nice guy and represented my district extremely well in the House and in the General Assembly before. The fact that he took a pass on running against Holding spoke volumes. Miller lacks the juice for a tough campaign. As for the rest no one jumps out. Burr can and will be defeated by a populist who knows and understands the needs of the middle class and speaks to those needs with a thoughtful and strong plan We need a fire in the belly populist.
Larry, you are exactly right. Democrats need to get off their butts, stop whining, man or woman up and take the fight to the people of NC again the Republicans. They got fat and lazy and let the Republican eat their lunch in 2010, 2012 and 2014. There was not reason that a Thom Tillis should ever have been elected as our Senator. State need passion from its candidates.
Right on.
Has Erskine Bowles moved out of NC? I would think he would have a pretty good chance if he ran.
She was just soundly rejected by the Democratic base. Why is her name even on this list?
Good question. I think it is overlooked that she lost because her Dem base didn’t much like her, Independents loathe her for not listening when they told her to say no to healthcare reform and the latter aren’t going to forget that if she runs in 2016. But also overlooked is that Tillis didn’t clear 50% because too many conservative Reps can’t stand him and couldn’t hold their nose to pull the lever for him. Also overlooked is that hard core conservatives don’t much care for the likes of Richard Burr, either, so Dems are blowing a real opportunity if they put up someone like Hagan. Don’t know much about Grier Martin but maybe this is the best bet…someone who doesn’t look too conservative for the base like McIntyre or Shuler would be, but not visibly far left like Brad Miller would be to moderate Dems, and who a lot of Burr-despising Republicans might be willing to give six years to a low key Dem just to get rid of Burr. Which is what it would take because Burr isn’t going to be defeated by a Rep primary challenger should one appear.
I don’t know anyone who thinks Kay Hagan should run again for this seat.
If Kay Hagan runs again, maybe she should trying running as a Democrat instead of running away from it. Weak Senator, weaker candidate. Claiming to be the most moderate and disagreeing with the president will not get your base voters out. Hello Senator Tillis!