After a number of bitter and drawn-out election cycles, the 2018 election season in North Carolina is likely to be very quiet. It will be a “blue moon” election year, which comes around every twelve years in this state, with no gubernatorial or U.S. Senate race heading the ticket.

And those congressional races? Well, you can thank the legislature for drawing districts that are unlikely to be competitive. The current lines are drawn so that the GOP can maintain ten seats in the state’s congressional delegation compared to the Democrats’ three – even in a so-called “wave” year.

As a testament to the lack of competitiveness in these districts, consider the fact that none of the congressional races last November were within double-digits. The closest race was in the 13th congressional district, an open seat won by Republican Ted Budd by 12.2%.

If Democrats want to make any gains in the state’s congressional delegation, one might think Budd would be their biggest target. Yet this ignores the fact that a Democratic victory in the new 13th district is heavily dependent on solid turnout from African American voters. The turnout of this group was anemic in 2016 and is likely to be even lower during a midterm.

A better opportunity might be in the new 2nd district, occupied by Republican George Holding. Unlike the 13th district, there are a large number of suburban voters, many of whom might be thoroughly disgusted with Trump come November 2018. With a strong opponent and a wave election, Holding could go down to defeat. But don’t count on it.

So, national Democrats are likely to look elsewhere for congressional gains this cycle. It’s this way by design. Using the metric of congressional races within double-digits as a measure of competitiveness, the 2016 congressional elections were the least competitive since 1948, where the closest race was won by 19%. (With one exception: 2014, the previous election cycle, where there were no competitive races and the closest race was won by 13.6%.) The 2014/2016 congressional cycle in North Carolina marks the first consecutive non-competitive election cycles since the 1942/1944 congressional cycles, when the state was firmly in the grip of the solid Democratic South, World War II was ongoing, and Franklin Roosevelt was President.

In other words, getting just one of these thirteen congressional seats within single digits next year will be a small victory for Democrats.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.