House Bill 2 wasn’t the only bill dealing with protections for the LGBT community to come up this week. In states across the South, legislatures were passing bills that would allow businesses and individuals to discriminate. In Georgia and Virginia, governors vetoed so-called “religious freedom” bills that would allow businesses to refuse service to LGBT citizens. On Wednesday, the Mississippi Senate passed a “sweeping anti-LGBT” bill that had already passed the state House. The governor hasn’t said whether or not he will sign the bill.
It’s no coincidence these bills are coming up during an election year. Conservatives are cynically using the legislation to fire up their base. These Republicans don’t mind the protests. On the contrary, they welcome them. The louder progressives scream, the more likely the GOP’s social conservative base is to show up at the polls in November. With Donald Trump or Ted Cruz on the ballot, the Democratic base is almost certainly coming out to vote. The GOP wants to make sure their people are motivated, too.
While their base reacted just like they expected, the response from the business community probably caught them off guard. Republicans like to think the only thing businesses consider is the bottom line. That’s not completely true. There are plenty of places they can go to make a profit. They also want places that are comfortable for their employees. Passing legislation like HB2 sends a signal that North Carolina doesn’t really welcome LGBT people.
The reaction from the governors also shows changing realities. Georgia’s Republican Governor Nathan Deal vetoed the legislation saying that the bill is not a reflection of the people of Georgia. Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe called the Virginia bill “unconstitutional” and “discriminatory.” Deal is in his final term and did what he believes is right with no concern about re-election. McAuliffe followed the Democratic line. McCrory, of course, signed the legislation and has been embattled ever since.
Southern Republican legislatures are using discriminatory legislation to motivate their base. They’ve been doing it for centuries. In the 20th century, it was African-Americans. Jesse Helms got his start as an operative in a 1950 Democratic primary for US Senate when he created campaign materials that accused UNC President Frank Porter Graham of favoring “mingling of the races.” We saw it when South Carolina political operative Lee Atwater created the Willie Horton ad in the 1988 presidential contest. And we saw it in 1992 with Helms’ White Hands ad against Harvey Gantt.
The question this year is whether or not there are enough social conservatives left to carry a state like North Carolina or if it just helps legislators in gerrymandered districts. The state has added 4 million people since those Helms’ ads in 1990. Most of those folks are in urban and suburban areas and most are not religious conservatives. They may want to be left alone by government, but they also don’t want feel like they’ve moved to a backwater.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Gov. McCrory will retreat on House Bill 2, just a matter of when and how – This was the headline of an article in the online Charlotte Observer. What’d I tell you!!
I think you mean 1990
You’re right. I fixed it.
Is it possible to edit our own comments? I don’t the my errors until they are published.
Thomas,
Thanks for your weekly updates.
I think Pope and his poodle dog, McCrory, passed the LGBT discrimination law with a strategy. All the attention will be focused on the LGBT parts of the bill, allowing the other parts of the law having to do with wages, rights to sue, etc., to pass under the radar. After a sufficient amount of backlash (as determined by Pope and the poodle) they will dial back the LGBT discrimination and the rest of the law will stand. Result: the Koch Broz and Pope win, McCrory gets a boost in the polls for being “reasonable”, the business outcry will diminish, and NC becomes more of a caste system state – rich guys at the top, everybody else on the bottom. Yessir, they are still “Keepin’ all the people down”.
Too right…..another wedge issue to ramp up the base…Gov McCrory obviously thinks he needs to shore up his position with conservatives even as he stumbles at a press conference saying he isn’t aware that the legislation sanctions other forms of discrimination……
in a twist of divine Irony today Tricky Pat was touting this as as counter to the business backlash H2 unleashed on him. to prove that H2 will not effect job recruiting in North Carolina.
“Drug maker reconsidering $20 million North Carolina factory”
sounds like a real PR score to get the H2 heat off until you dig a bit deeper .
turns out that .
” Braeburn Pharmaceuticals has acquired a 6-month implant of antipsychotic drug risperidone from Endo Pharmaceuticals. The drug, whose brand name is Risperdal, is used to treat patients with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, though it has also been administered to treat symptoms of ADHD, particularly in young children.
Risperdal requires daily administration for effectiveness, which the implant covers for 6 months. However, the drug has been linked to a risk of serious side effects with prolonged use, including gynecomastia, or breast tissue growth, among boys and male adolescents.”
here is the llitigation site if the drug turned your boy into a girl …
http://www.risperdalbreastlawsuit.com/2015/05/14/company-acquires-6-month-risperidone-implant/
Max:
Don’t recall any “gay marriage losses…. in 2010”. You might be trying to cite the 2012 NC marriage amendment vote? You know, the one put on a primary day ballot by the NCGOP in which the GOP presidential choices were in play, but, with Obama running again, the Dem presidential choice was not, thus likely attracting many more GOP voters to the polls? Was that the instance you were thinking about? In 2012?
And you ignore the huge and quick political trending in favor of gay marriage–or at least in toleration of it—that has swept the US from 2013 to present. Not only in federal courts, but as tracked by polls across the nation, and in NC. This, from PPP, June 2015: “Gay Marriage Reaches Record Support in NC — PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds a record high level of support for gay marriage, 8 months after it became legal in the state. Voters are now almost evenly divided on the issue with 44% in support and 46% against it. That marks a massive shift in public sentiment over the last three years. In 2012 North Carolinians passed a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage by 22 points, 61/39.”
You also fail to mention — or realize — that, via a SCOTUS ruling, same-sex marriage was found legal, and state laws finding it illegal were found unconstitutional.
You warn of “backlash and reframing, because it’s coming with a vengeance.” So do I. Wanted to wager what sort of backlash will arise, and which party will be the target/victim of it?
You’re right, my bad. 2012, not 2010.
As for the rest of what you wrote, it seems like you’re misinterpreting what I was trying to say. I’m in no way supportive of anti-lgbtq legislation of any kind, I’m a progressive voter who’s probably a good bit to Thomas’s left. I’m glad for the SCOTUS decision and glad that we’re trending towards greater lgbtq acceptance nationwide and here in NC, HB2 notwithstanding. My point is purely tactical–so many new arrivals couldn’t blunt an overwhelming loss fought on social conservative turf. Dem campaigns need to proceed carefully and intelligently to avoid a repeat. You’re certainly correct to point out the more favorable slice of electorate we’ll be looking at in November vs. the primary ballot in ’12, but it’s not 20 points better. Closing the gap will require more.
As for wagering where the backlash goes, if I could do that I’d be in Thomas’s line of work. 😉 I’m hoping that progressives prevail in November, just like you.
Four million is a comforting number, but don’t forget the 20 points gay marriage lost by in 2010. A lot of those four million were already here by then. We need to fight HB2 because it’s the right thing to do, but I hope D campaigns in NC are already preparing for backlash and reframing, because it’s coming with a vengeance. The governor may be a uniquely clumsy delivery mechanism; the same vulnerabilities won’t hold down-ballot.