The past week has reinforced the need for an independent redistricting commission in the state. If the disruption to our elections for the third decade in a row was not enough, Republicans’ arrogance and cavalier approach toward the process is. The GOP clearly put their interests ahead of those of the voters, moving entire districts across the state and admittedly rigging the system for their benefit by insisting on maintaining a 10-3 Republican advantage. After three decades of this nonsense, clearly neither party has the discipline to put the people’s interests above their own.
That said, the districts they drew look better than any we’ve seen in decades. They are more compact and split fewer counties and precincts. Keeping communities together is positive. And the districts are more competitive, even if only slightly so.
In North Carolina, African-Americans make up 22% of the registered voters. Historically, districts where minorities made up 20% or more of the registered voters were considered competitive. At some point, that changed. Or at least the perception of competitive districts changed.
Of the districts that the Republicans drew, African-Americans make up at least 20% of registered voters in eight of them. In both the 8th and 9th Congressional Districts, African-Americans and Native Americans combine to make up 25% of the registered voters. In 2008, admittedly the best year Democrats have had in the last few decades, Hagan won the 8th and 13th districts. In the 9th, which Hagan barely lost, Democrats hold a 13-point advantage over Republicans.
Two things seem to be happening. First, Republicans said that they were keeping the district split 10-3 in their favor and everybody believes them. Controlling the message discourages competent candidates from jumping into races that might be competitive. We won’t actually know if they’re 10-3 districts until we vote in them.
Second, Democrats need to learn how to talk to working class and suburban white voters. In both the 8th and 9th Districts, Democrats only need 35% of white voters to win. If they can’t win in districts like that in a good Democratic year, or even a neutral year, they’ve got bigger problems than just the district lines.
There’s no doubt that all but three of the districts are tough for Democrats. There’s also no doubt in my mind that Democrats could win a handful of these districts under the right circumstances. However, the party needs to become a bigger tent again and quit demanding litmus tests. Candidates matter and the right candidates in the right year could give Democrats seats that they don’t have. It’s better to fight for seats now rather than wait for demographics to shift or the elusive redistricting committee.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Since, you must have as much participation as humanly possible to make Democracy work I would this that how can we achieve that should be the next docket item up for a vote.
this should be about Automatic Registration in the United States: The Selective Service Example
http://www.brennancenter.org/publication/automatic-registration-united-states-selective-service-example
for then to refuse to take this issue up will only verify their Idealogical belief that they can’t win unless the system is rigged. and is exactly what the are doing with the SCOUS appointment issue..
This is the most encouraging news I have read in quite awhile. We can make some gains THiS year. Thank you for writing.
As you all know, to win any political race, the candidate and/or campaign surrogates must build coalitions with a variety of groups, clubs, organizations, and individuals. The politician must also (1) know their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses and (2) must find out and know the real needs and concerns of their constituents, then, most importantly, (3) spend the necessary time and money needed to do the above. Without doing number (3), numbers (1) and (2) can not be accomplished and therefore candidate can not win.
Redrawing the districts in NC this late in the election cycle will inevitably be positive for some candidates, who stand to gain votes, while other candidates will ultimately lose many coalitions they have spent time and money building and therefore they will lose those votes.
Such is the nature of politics in NC this year.
If your concern is to have a “full slate”, meaning every district in NC is a contested race, and as long as the redistricting does not cause candidates to just drop out, that’s a win in itself.
“The past week has reinforced the need for an independent redistricting commission in the state.”
NO. Even if you don’t agree with the legislators who drew the districts, they’re still accountable to the people. Independent commissions answer to no one, and it’s impossible to find guaranteed unbiased people to put on such a committee. We’ve been doing partisan gerrymandering for 200 years and it hasn’t killed us. Gerrymandering didn’t preserve the Dems majority in 2010 and it won’t save the Reps from their outrageous behavior in the future.
Voters should choose their politicians. Politicians should not get to chose their voters.
Where can I find demographic and party registration breakdown?