As Donald Trump started rising in the polls over the summer, the GOP elites consoled themselves with the thought that surely, this was going to be a short-lived phenomenon and that the blowhard billionaire would implode eventually. When Trump made the comments about John McCain’s POW experience, these folks nodded to themselves and said: “Welp, stick a fork in Trump.”

Then, they watched with dismay as Trump’s numbers started rising. The elites said: “Don’t worry. We’ll get him in the debates. Flavor of the month.” When the debate ended and Trump got in a “blood feud” with Megyn Kelley, their predictions of his impending demise looked right on the money. After all, no one, not even Donald Trump, can get away with attacking a woman with a seeming reference to menstruation. And yet, Trump prevailed. Unbelievably, he got the best of both Fox News and Megyn Kelley – with conservative primary voters. He was rewarded with yet more growth in his support.

Completely baffled, Beltway Republicans since then resigned themselves to waiting for Trump to implode from too much Trumpiness. Around early September, it looked like they wouldn’t have to wait very long. It looked like the media, and voters, were getting bored with him. Trump’s act was enthralling, but it was like a drug: those watching him needed constant replenishment, at larger and larger doses, in order for the high to be sustained.

As people got bored, the media got bored too, resulting in less enthusiasm for Trump, a decline in his numbers … a vicious cycle. Trump blundered by attacking Carly Fiorina’s “persona” and with a mediocre performance in the second debate, feeding into the downward spiral. The GOP establishment breathed a sigh of relief: Trump was not going to go out with a bang, but a whimper. He just had to decline enough for a narrative to develop about a Trump decline, which would in turn result in more decline, and so on and so forth.

Well, now we’re almost in November. Trump has defied almost every prediction by the most experienced political prognosticators. Nothing has worked. Bullets bounce off his chest. Trump defies the laws of political gravity. He is invincible.

And if that isn’t enough, we have not one, but two Donald Trumps in the GOP field. The second Donald Trump is a fellow who is his complete opposite: a soft-spoken, black, undeniably devout neurosurgeon named Ben Carson. What they have in common, though, is more important: they are both outsiders who are completely unapologetic about their positions.

They complement each other perfectly. Trump represents the angry “America First” wing of the conservatives. His supporters feel like America is on the path to becoming a loser nation. They want a strong leader like Donald Trump who can restore the country to greatness and to winning again. They couldn’t care less that Trump doesn’t check off all the right boxes. That just adds to his appeal.

Then there’s Carson. To someone who’s not an evangelical, Carson’s statements sound downright loony. But like Trump, he’s not going to apologize for them or try to fit himself into someone’s idea of a perfect candidate. He’s 100% against abortion, 100% for traditional marriage, is against illegal immigration and all the other things that his supporters feel are destroying American society. People like him because he’s not a politician: he’s not especially polished and his lack of government experience shows. But he’s not a part of the system, he’s humble and good-natured, and has a great story that is almost tailor-made to appeal to conservatives: he grew up in a rough black neighborhood, single-parent family, hung out with the wrong crowd, and was headed towards trouble. Then he turned his life around by reading Scripture, embracing books and learning, working hard, and becoming one of the most famous neurosurgeons in the world. He is basically a living example of the effectiveness of conservative philosophy: a hand-up, not a hand-out. And sometimes, that hand has to be yours.

These two individuals now top the Republican field. And while the polls don’t reflect this, the GOP elites are certain that both Trump and Carson are DOA in the general election. Alarmingly, both candidates are subject to concerns that their campaigns aren’t serious. Some think Trump is a Clinton plant who wants to sabotage the Republican Party. Some think Carson is just out to sell books. One thing is for sure: they are more than just flavors of the month, and anyone who thinks neither of them has a chance to be the nominee is sadly deluded.

The bottom line is that before, all the GOP had to worry about was Donald Trump. The good news was that there was only one of him. Now there’s two and the party is in the unenviable position of hoping they both fall on their swords. If Trump collapses (a huge ‘if’) then Carson is waiting in the wings to pick up his support. If Carson collapses, his voters can go to Donald.

The one solace for mainstream Republicans? Maybe, just maybe the electorate is filled with what one observer called “whiskey courage.” The Carson/Trump people talk a good game, but once in the ballot booth, things are going to get real. Maybe then the voters will sober up and pick one of the other candidates – maybe Rubio … maybe Bush … and hopefully not Cruz.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.