Down the stretch, it’s still the same race

by | Oct 28, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Ads, Editor's Blog, US Senate | 2 comments

In the final month of the campaign, Thom Tillis has trailed Kay Hagan by a very slim margin. As he enters the final week, he’s still working on converting voters or persuading the very few undecideds left. He’s bringing in the moderate Republicans like John McCain and Lindsey Graham, not the fire breathers like Ted Cruz.

He’s also released a final ad. It’s a good spot and a smart spot. In the midst of all the negativity, Tillis looks like a voice reason, criticizing the tone of the ad wars and boiling the election down to a simple choice between him and Hagan. If anything is going to cut through in these final days, this spot probably will because of the abrupt change in tone.

It’s also a cynical spot. While he’s looking into the camera saying the race is simply a choice between two people who disagree, his campaign is still demonizing Hagan’s family by implying they are defrauding the government and taxpayers. That’s politics, though.

The Hagan campaign is putting it’s energy into holding onto women voters and turnout. They’ve released an ad that basically says, don’t believe moderate Thom Tillis. He’s got a record and it’s been bad for women and families. Her schedule puts her with the base going down the stretch. At this point in the race, she’s less worried about winning the argument than winning the turnout.

So far, Democrats have held onto to their early voting advantage. African-Americans make up 25% of the early vote and Democrats are outperforming Republicans by 17 points. At this point in 2010, Democrats held a 6 point advantage over Republicans in early voting and African-Americans made up only 19% of those voters.

After all the TV ads, direct mail, debates and twitter wars, the dynamics of the race are essentially unchanged. Tillis wants to make the campaign a referendum on Obama. Hagan wants the voters to hold Tillis accountable for the actions of the General Assembly. The Democratic base is still fired up and motivated to vote. Tillis needs to gain an enough of an edge with swing voters and hope that the Republican base holds its collective nose and votes against Kay Hagan and Obama. 

2 Comments

  1. REE

    They seem to think the average person can not remember the past or past actions. Sure we need to change education but mostly at the management level. Community colleges just pile on courses that are not up to industry standard to get our tax money. If there are no jobs in that field they need to eliminate from our tax dollars. So many community college add programs like mechatronics by having the students take some electronics from th electronics curricula, mechanics from the mechanical curricula and adding ridicules robotics etc.just to make up a new program and get state money. Maybe they should just add options to existing programs based up on industry needs. Would this save tax dollars and help the students as well as economy?

  2. REE

    Republicans have really turned me against them in the tricky ways they have lied and manipulated voting. We need to send them a message and let them know we want the truth and best for NC not lies.

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