Drunktown Races

by | Oct 6, 2015 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics | 6 comments

It’s October of an off year but it’s election day for Raleigh and Charlotte. In Raleigh the mayor and the City Council is up for reelection while in Charlotte the marquee race is the Democratic runoff between incumbent mayor Dan Clodfelter and challenger Jennifer Roberts. And if you don’t know what the reference to Drunktown is all about, then you’re probably not paying attention.

Here’s some brief background on the races in both cities, along with a few general predictions for both (take these with five heaping tablespoons of salt):

Charlotte Jennifer Roberts was supposed to be the frontrunner. Polls before the first election showed her hovering around the 40% runoff threshold. Since late August or so, the momentum has been with Clodfelter. There’s reason to believe the race will be very close. On the issues, there’s not much that separates the candidates, so things have gotten personal.

In Clodfelter’s favor is the fact that he’s been endorsed by the third-place finisher, David Howard, giving him a real chance to consolidate the black vote. Roberts has also been panned for vague stances on the issues. Roberts started off with a real advantage so it’s possible she’ll win a close one, but my prediction is that Clodfelter will win in what several months ago would have been a big upset.

Whoever wins tonight will face Edwin Peacock next month and will probably be favored in this Democratic-heavy city. But Peacock’s prospects are looking a bit brighter than they were a couple weeks ago.

Raleigh Voters in the state’s second-largest city will also stagger to the polls today. There are a couple issues that have surrounded the municipal races: first, the controversy over rezoning, and second the big debate about restrictions on downtown nightlife. The latter has really come to dominate the discussion. Things really heated up when an ad was published accusing some Council members of wanting to turn Raleigh into “Drunktown.”

The ad probably backfired, and it’s going to hurt some of the pro-regulation Council members. I wrote earlier that folks betting on young people turning out will probably be disappointed, but the regulations on bars has proven such a hot issue that I think we’re going to see a real jump in turnout from twenty-somethings who think the Council is trying to ruin their fun. In the end, I think we’re going to see some upsets.

For some background on “Drunktown”, check out WRAL.

Also, incumbent mayor Nancy McFarlane is seeking reelection to a third term. She’s being challenged by Robert Weltzin, a chiropractor in North Raleigh who also faced her two years ago. For more on his campaign, read here.

6 Comments

  1. Chris Telesca

    After the fact – it sure did hurt those pro-regulation candidates!

  2. Lan Sluder

    From Asheville:

    The primary for Asheville City Council was held Tuesday, and with all 40 precincts reporting, progressives took the top six positions in the 15-person nominally non-partisan race. These six will go on to the Nov. 3 general election, and the top three vote-getters then will join four returning City Council members. The Council, already dominated mostly by Democrats and progressives, is made up of seven members including the Mayor. Members are elected for staggered four-year terms.

    The winners Tuesday, in order of finish, were: Julie Mayfield (the top vote getter, an environmental non-profit director and political newcomer); Brian Haynes (assistant manager of the local Habitat for Humanity, brother of rocker Warren Haynes and another political newcomer); incumbent/Vice Mayor Marc Hunt; Keith Young (Deputy Clerk of Superior Court and the only Black candidate to win in the primary); Lindsey Simerly (an LGBT advocate and the only openly gay candidate); and Rich Lee, a financial advisor and neighborhood activist. The primary winners all have a decidedly progressive perspective.

    Republican Carl Mumpower, a former Asheville Councilmember and Vice Mayor, didn’t make the cut, nor did former Asheville Mayor Ken Michalove, a fairly conservative Democrat who served the city as Mayor from 1989 to 1993.

    The six primary winners all were within about 1,000 votes of each other, and no single candidate received more than 14% of the total votes cast, so it could be a tight race in November. In the primary election, voters could vote for up to three candidates out of the 16 on the ballot. One candidate earlier had withdrawn from the race due to health issues but her name remained on the ballot.

  3. John Wynne

    Obviously, Clodfelter’s “momentum” was overblown. Bodes well for Roberts next month.

  4. Norma

    And today — Roberts at 54% — seems like a pretty sound victory. What say ye?

  5. Mike L

    Was Jennifer Roberts the Democrat that actually came within about 5 points of Republican Robert Pittenger in the 9th US House district back in 2012? A district so Republican a Democrat didn’t even bother running in it last year? If she is I’m surprised she’s struggling, obviously she must have been pretty popular in 2012…

  6. Interesting

    The Raleigh races are interesting because they’re exposing a political divide that typically only seen in Seattle or San Francisco-the NIMBYs vs. the creative young professionals. One side is terrified that growth will somehow hurt their precious property values and are determined to keep growth slow and the city nightlife boring. This will lead to increased costs of living for the younger techies and entrepreneurs, as housing becomes scarce and amenities and building get pushed out to the suburbs or Durham., On the other hand the young creatives/progressives, while more friendly to development and growth, are probably even more likely to favor expensive urbanist boondoggles like new parks everywhere and wildly expensive transit schemes. Of course Republicans are borderline irrelevant outside of the northern quasi-suburbs.

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