No one is watching the developments of the North Carolina redistricting case with greater interest than U.S. Representative Renee Ellmers. If the Supreme Court decides that the show must go on (and denies the state a stay) then it’s overwhelmingly likely the legislature will hold congressional elections separately.
That could spell bad news for Ms. Ellmers, who isn’t worried that her district will be radically changed. Instead, she’s in a tough primary. She’s possibly the Republican incumbent most vulnerable to a primary challenge. The conventional wisdom is that Ellmers absolutely needs to avoid a runoff. A runoff would mean she’s denied the support of (apologies) low-information voters who come out only to vote for the highest-profile races. Instead, the only people voting will be activist-types out for blood. The lower turnout would spell doom for her campaign.
Holding congressional elections on a separate date would have the same effect. It would mean that her support base (of people voting on name recognition alone) would be diminished. She would still be able to pursue a “40%+1” strategy, but getting to 40% will be tougher with such an anti-establishment electorate.
A straw poll was held at the Wake County GOP Precinct meetings last night. The straw poll illustrates Ellmers’ problems with the most informed and active voters:
41% Jim Duncan
26% Renee Ellmers
22% Frank Roche
7% Kay Daly
5% Tim D’Annunzio
A few things to note here – straw polls are usually meaningless. Next, voters didn’t necessarily have to be in the 2nd District to vote here (but I don’t see why that would matter). And finally, Frank Roche is from Wake County, has been on the ballot a number of times, and clearly has residual support here. I think that does matter and that means his support might not be representative across the district – and his supporters would likely go to another conservative alternative if forced.
It certainly seems like Renee Ellmers’ political career – just like the fate of so many other things – just might be in the hands of John Roberts.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Except that Wake is only a small portion of the district.
I’m all for Ellmers getting primaried out of office. She’s proven to be a mindless, shallow and hypocritical representative–so much so that even many in her own party want her gone.
If she loses and her seat goes to another mindless and hypocritical GOP’er–even one to her right–at least that newbie will be a powerless, freshman legislator. And that, IMO, will be enough just desserts for the heavily GOP-leaning electorate in that district.
This all said, I am hoping that the SCOTUS rules against a stay and that all surrounding districts benefit from restricting with less gerrymandering involved.