The more vulnerable Renee Ellmers appears, the more likely it is that she’ll win another term in Congress. Call it the Renee Ellmers vulnerability paradox.

Back in January, the congresswoman drew the ire of conservatives when she appeared to stop a ban on partial-birth abortion right in its track. Instantly, her name shot to the top of the list for members vulnerable to a primary challenge from the Right.

If Ellmers survives, it should be a lesson for conservatives to coalesce behind one challenger. While North Carolina has runoffs, the 40% threshold leaves little room for error. For this reason, I’ve always been fairly bullish on Ms. Ellmers’ reelection prospects: even though she has problems with the Tea Party, her opposition is going to be divided. It’s almost certain now that in a crowded field she’ll receive the highest number of votes. If she gets over 40%, the coast is clear.

It was already looking tough to beat Ellmers when the field was divided between former Chatham GOP chairman Jim Duncan and perennial candidate Frank Roche. And now there’s a new entrant into the primary race, conservative political operative Kay Daly, and she’s come out with a doozy of an ad. In it, she depicts herself as a Palinesque “RINO hunter”. The ad bashes Ellmers as a Planned Parenthood-supporting, illegal alien pushing, homosexual-loving feminist, and ends with Daly metaphorically shooting her RINO opponent.

Now, perhaps this will lead to deterioration in Ellmers’ numbers, to the point that she starts to look like a moderate candidate running in an open primary. But the more likely scenario is that the advantages of incumbency – name recognition and a huge cash advantage over her opponents – will manifest in Ellmers winning outright in March. No runoff needed. All she needs is to make sure she doesn’t dip below 40% of the vote. That shouldn’t be too difficult. Speaking of March – the change in the primary date gives Ellmers’ opponents two less months to get their act together, two less months to make the case against the incumbent.

Back in January, some thought Ellmers was serving her last term. But the passing of time, a divided opposition, and political machinations are working to her benefit. Chances are, the Tea Party is going to have her to kick around for a little bit longer.

5 Comments

  1. Jimmy Rouse

    Renee drives the right wing nutcases mad. She will never satisfy the wingnuts and fruitcakes unless she shuts down the government, cuts off the electricity and never speaks to a Democrat again.

    The only problem they have with Renee is that she lives in the real world and that is really frightening to the right wingers.

  2. Matt Phillippi

    Personally, I can’t wait for more ads from Kay Daly. That was amazing. Best new comedy of the season!

  3. Catherine

    But don’t forget about GRASSROOTS. She is very vulnerable, has not been an attentive representative, and even residents of her home county, Harnett, are disgusted. She is desperate and desperation leads to mistakes. Duncan is the only viable candidate,

  4. TY Thompson

    She’ll survive because LIVs will turn out in number for the presidential primary and vote for her as an after-thought. It’s no accident that the legislature is moving to reunite the May primary with the Presidental date, because she’d be a lot more vulnerable in May as would many other incumbents.

  5. cosmicjanitor

    Generally speaking, you are not talking about conservatives here, you are talking about ‘zealots’, and it is telling that you are never embarrassed by the antics of these right-wing, nut jobs who want to usher in iron-fisted corporate rule by the wealthiest few among us – the current batch of GOP presidential hopefuls notwithstanding. The one you cautioned we watch, little Ms. Fiorina, is a dyed in the wool fascist who is a disgraced CEO fired for a shady merger that slid a cool 110 million into her pocket and which resulted in the loss of 27,000 US. jobs – presidential material without a doubt by republikan standards. But let a level-headed, conservatively inclined politician such as Renee Ellmers call herself a republikan and the zealots come-out of the woodwork frothing at the mouth because she respects the sanctity of the public domain. Perhaps Ms. Ellmers should consider changing her party affiliation, that would assure her re-election and continued good work – that is if the rigged voting machines don’t take her out.

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