Environmental Issues Take Priority in Competitive SD-18 Contest

by | Jul 30, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Senate Races, NCGA | 1 comment

Senate District 18: Sen. Chad Barefoot (R) vs. Sarah Crawford (D)

The newest iteration of the 18th Senate district comprises all of Franklin County and some of the most rural sections of Wake County, including the towns of Knightdale, Zebulon, Wendell, Wake Forest, Garner, extending all the way down to Fuquay-Varina. In drawing the district, Republicans hoped to get rid of liberal Democrat Dougie Berger of Franklin County, who had long been a source of irritation to conservatives, and to elect one of their own. In 2012, they succeeded in doing just that. Republican Chad Barefoot, a former policy adviser and graduate of Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary, defeated Berger by almost 12 points, helped by a very lopsided financial advantage and heavy support from the state GOP.

This year’s race probably isn’t going to be as easy for Barefoot. It’s a competitive district and Barefoot is going to have to run on the record of the General Assembly, which is still fairly unpopular. But mostly it’s because his opponent, Sarah Crawford, is one of the Democratic Party’s most prized recruits this year, and has kept up with Barefoot on the money front. Crawford, a non-profit executive and wife of a lobbyist for the N.C. League of Conservation Voters, has been aided by outside groups attacking Barefoot on fracking. And even before the ads started airing, Public Policy Polling found Barefoot with a low approval rating and trailing a generic Democrat by 1 point. (This was back in September, when discontent with the GOP legislature was at its peak.) Expect to hear a lot about the environment in this race. Democrats will continue to blast Barefoot for his fracking stance. Barefoot’s campaign will respond by charging that Crawford is in the pocket of radical left-wing environmental activists, and will turn attention to the legislature’s giving teachers the largest raises in state history.

Sen. Chad Barefoot, the Republican candidate

Sen. Chad Barefoot, the Republican candidate

Democrats have a strong candidate in Crawford, who can probably connect with moderate, suburban women. And in contrast with the other Wake districts, SD-18 contains a lot of conservative Democrats. These voters have trended Republican in recent years, but a strong Democratic candidate running in an anti-incumbent environment could bring them back into the fold. But Barefoot is advantaged by running in a midterm election in a district highly susceptible to midterm drop-off. Again unlike other Wake-based districts, SD-18 is inelastic in its voting patterns and Democrats are heavily reliant on African American voters. With Blacks constituting nearly 22% of the district electorate, any drop in turnout from that group could be fatal to Crawford’s candidacy.

Sarah Crawford, the Democratic candidate.

Sarah Crawford, the Democratic candidate.

The bottom line: while Crawford will be a tough opponent for Barefoot, she has little room for error. If this was a presidential year, this would be a pure toss-up and might even favor Crawford. But the electoral history and a likely drop in Democratic turnout from 2012 makes this race tilt, ever so slightly, in Barefoot’s favor. A Crawford win will indicate a higher than usual level of discontent with the legislature and probably a Hagan victory at the top of the ticket. And if Crawford comes up so short, Democrats can find comfort in the fact that this is a district which is trending their way and might even be Democratic-leaning by the end of the decade.

Should Barefoot survive his reelection contest, he, like Barringer in SD-17, is a possible future candidate for Congress in NC-13, should Rep. George Holding step down to run for U.S. Senate. His district’s being almost entirely contained in the 13th congressional district would likely give him a geographic advantage in a Republican primary.

Counties in district: Franklin, Wake (part)

District Rating: Tilts Republican

2012 Result
55.9% Barefoot (R)
44.1% Berger (D)

Voter Registration
41.1% Democrat
33.9% Republican
24.7% Unaffiliated

72.0% White
21.6% Black
6.4% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
52.2% Romney
46.7% Obama

2012 Governor
55.9% McCrory
41.7% Dalton

2010 Senate
55.6% Burr
42.3% Marshall

2008 Senate
49.9% Hagan
47.2% Dole

Social Media Support
Sen. Chad Barefoot – 2,983
Sarah Crawford – 1,467

1 Comment

  1. Eilene Corcoran

    in regards to the “largest raise for teachers in state history” it would be important to mention that at the same time, the legislature back-handedly took away teachers’ longevity pay (read: secret pay cut) and that teachers still aren’t even up to where we would be with regular step raises promised to us by the NC pay scale before all the cuts and pay freezes took place. It’s better than nothing, but it’s not the bonanza the legislature is making it out to be.

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