Evidence of the Democratic ground game

by | Oct 17, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Editor's Blog, NC Politics, US Senate

Dr. Michael Bitzer has been providing outstanding analysis of North Carolina’s mail-in absentee ballots. The results give the best hint at each campaign’s ground organization. If the race remains as close as it is today, those field operations might determine the outcome of the Hagan-Tillis race.

Traditionally, Republicans have dominated the mail-in ballots. So far, Bitzer notes, Democrats have turned in more ballots but Republicans have passed them in ballots requested. Eventually, more Republicans may vote mail-in than Democrats, but the margin will be much smaller than it’s been in the past.

In 2012, Republicans made up 50% of the mail-in voters, Democrats only 29%. In 2010, Repubicans outpaced Democrats 45% to 36%. So far this year, Democrats have returned 41% of the ballots, Republicans 37%, though Republicans lead in ballot requests by a margin of 41% to 36%.

All that leaves the unaffiliated voters as the wild card. They make up 22% of the ballots returned and 24% of the those requested. In 2012, they made up 22% of mail-in voters and in 2010, 19%.

So who are these unaffiliated voters? They skew much younger than the partisans. A quarter of them are under 40, compared to 16% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans. Almost half of them did not vote in 2010.

The data indicates organized efforts to encourage mail-in voting and the Democrats look like they have the advantage. Democrats are generally thought to do better among younger voters than Republicans, particularly younger women. Overall, women have requested 57% of the ballots and have returned 54% of them.

These numbers bode well for North Carolina Democrats. While they have traditionally lost the mail-in ballot contest, they have dominated the in-person early vote. With a substantial program to encourage mail-in ballots, the early evidence suggests that they are building an even greater margin going into Election Day.

In 2010, just over 50% of registered Republicans voted in North Carolina. Only 45% of Democrats showed up and just a third of unaffiliated voters cast a ballot. This year, Democrats seemed poised to make sure that there is no repeat.

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