Elections usually aren’t won or lost on Election Day, the early voting period, or even during the campaign itself. Rather, they’re lost in the filing period and in particular the months leading up to it. You can’t win unless you show up and failure to recruit strong candidates often results in conceding a number of seats to the other side.
Conceding seats to the other side isn’t really a problem. There will be a number of seats with no Republican or no Democrat running because the partisan tilt of the districts are so slanted. The problem lies in conceding competitive seats. Because North Carolina Republicans hold veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, recruiting strong candidates is arguably more of a priority for Democrats, though Republicans have some work to do to in the State House. The filing period should be watched carefully as an indication of which party did better in the recruiting game.
For North Carolina House Republicans, Rep. Charles Jeter is the conference chairman and is therefore tasked with scouting out potential legislators. He said yesterday in an N&O article that Republicans will be targeting “eight or nine” seats while simultaneously defending “eleven or twelve” seats of their own. (Jeter’s seat is definitely among the latter group.)
While Jeter did not reveal the seats in question, we can make pretty good guesses as to which ones they are based on voter registration statistics and past election results. The following, then, are the competitive seats in the NC House. Watch throughout the filing period to see who ends up filing for these seats. Failure to land a “name” candidate or, even worse, failure to land anyone at all will affect the outcome of the legislative elections before they even begin. Remember that the number four is important for Democrats as that’s how many seats they need to gain to erase the veto-proof Republican majority in the lower chamber.
Democrat-held seats (Republicans are probably targeting)
22 William Brisson (inc.)/??????
41 Gale Adcock (inc.)/???????
44 Billy Richardson (inc.)/Jim Arp (R), Richard Button (R)
46 (open) ?????? (D)/Brendan Jones (R)
51 Brad Salmon (inc.)??????
66 Ken Goodman (inc.)/??????
115 John Ager (inc.)/Robert Chilmonik (R), Dr. Frank Moretz (R)
116 Brian Turner (inc.)/??????
119 Joe Sam Queen (inc.)/???????
Republican-held seats (Republicans are defending)
2 Larry Yarborough (inc.)/???????
6 (open) Ashley Woolard (R)/Judy Justice (D), Warren Judge (D)
8 Susan Martin (inc.)/???????
9 Dr. Gregory Murphy (inc.)/Brian Farkas (D)
35 Chris Malone (inc.)/Terence Everitt (D)
36 Nelson Dollar (inc.)/Brian M. Tribble (D)
37 (open) Linda Hunt Williams (R)/Lindy Brown (D)
40 Marilyn Avila (inc.)/???????
49 Gary Pendleton (inc.)/Cynthia Ball (D)
88 Rob Bryan (inc.)/???????
92 Charles Jeter (inc.)/Chaz Beasley (D)
118 Michele Presnell (inc.)/Rhonda Schandevel (D), Dr. Reese Steen (D)
Note that, obviously, not all these seats are equally competitive, and failure to recruit strong candidates in the more competitive seats is more consequential. The above list also consists only of those who have declared candidacies so far and have not necessarily filed. Doubtless many more will file who are not on this list – some top-tier candidates, some not. Keep an eye on who files as that will give an indication over how the 2016 legislative elections will go, and remember you can’t win if you don’t show up.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Shockingly, the Pitt GOP named Greg Murphy as their new rep to fill in for Brian Brown. This is a man that believes Medicaid expansion must happen because Vidant is losing too much money and had NEVER heard of Common Core (saying to ex comm members “why don’t you tell me how I should feel”). No Joke.