If ever somebody was interested in running for office as a Democrat, 2018 would be a good year to take a chance. Nothing is guaranteed in politics and in today’s world of hyper gerrymandering, winning an election often takes a wave. Early indications suggest such a wave might be building.
The party out of power almost always does better the first midterm following a new president. We’ve seen wave elections in 1982 after Reagan, 1994 after Clinton, and 2010 after Obama. Already, Trump’s approval ratings are down. According to an Elon College poll this week, Trump’s numbers in North Carolina are upside down with 42% approving and 51% disapproving. Those are troubling numbers for Republicans.
Presidential approval numbers aren’t the only ones to watch, though. Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight says the generic ballot measure is a better indicator. Across the country right now, voters say they would choose a Democrat over a Republican on the Congressional ballot by a five-point margin. Enten says that choice is far more stable than presidential approval ratings and that no sitting majority has been in worse shape at this point in the election cycle in decades.
Health care could make matters much worse for Republicans. They’re feeling pressured by their base to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but their remedies will kick lots of people off insurance and cause premiums to rise while offering less coverage. And the DCCC is putting pressure on Republicans. They’re running digital ads in districts across the country, including Rep. Robert Pittenger’s Ninth Congressional District. The ads blast the Republican plan for bringing back pre-existing conditions while exempting members of Congress. As Democrats learned, messing with people’s health care comes with serious political risk.
In special elections, Democrats have seen a fervor for their candidates, even in districts where they should do poorly. In Kansas, the Democratic candidate came within seven points in a district Trump won by 27. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff still needs to survive a runoff to go to Congress but he came close to garnering 50% in a district that no Democrat has come close to winning in decades.
In North Carolina, in particular, 2018 might be good year to run. We have a Blue Moon election, meaning we have nothing at the top of the ticket to drive turnout. These elections happen every twelve years and the past three have been waves for the party that did not control the White House. Democrats have already shown increased enthusiasm with record numbers of people at county conventions. If that momentum continues, November 2018 could provide the wave Democrats need to at least sustain Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Despite the likelihood of Trump bringing further discredit on Republicans, Democrats should be cautious about predicting too much for 2018.
Their best prospect looks to be in the General Assembly. Republicans face a court order to redraw state legislative districts for 2018 elections. Democrats need to flip only three state House seats to end Republicans’ veto-proof control. The outlook is less favorable in the state Senate where Democrats need a net gain of six seats.
Congressional races, however, are a different story. Winning margins for GOP House candidates ranged from 12 points to 28 points in 2016, with an average victory margin of 20 points for the 10 Republican Congress members. That’s a fairly comfortable cushion for Republicans, even if state voters significantly sour on GOP policies.
The long-term outlook for Democrats to regain power in North Carolina and the country as a whole will require meaningful redistricting reform to end gerrymandering and return control to the voters.
What about you Mr. Mills, are you planning another go at it? Like you said the timing is right! Congressman Hudson has basically been a me too for all the old worn out Republican ideas.