North Carolina’s 7th Congressional District – Mike McIntyre (D)

The 7th district was substantially redrawn in the 2011 redistricting cycle. While formerly it was based entirely in southeastern NC, the new 7th extends all the way to the Raleigh suburbs and loses most of Robeson County. The reconfiguration was intended to knock off Democrat incumbent Mike McIntyre, who has represented the district since 1997 and acquired a reputation as one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.

In 2012, McIntyre faced the toughest battle of his political life, when he went up against State Senator David Rouzer of Johnston County. In the end, McIntyre prevailed by only 654 votes, or one-fifth of one-percent of the vote. Afterward, Rouzer geared up for a rematch, but three months ago McIntyre announced that he was retiring. McIntyre reportedly dislikes tough campaigns and a rematch against Rouzer would have been his toughest yet, one that he would have probably lost.

With McIntyre out of the way, the 7th is a certain Republican pickup in 2014. The only question is which Republican will pick it up, for Rouzer faces a primary challenge from Woody White, New Hanover County Commissioner and former State Senator.

Republican Primary

There are clues that there will be a close contest in store here. For one thing, Rouzer seems to be taking White very seriously. White has attacked Rouzer as a classic D.C. insider, while Rouzer’s campaign has depicted White as a typical trial lawyer, a sort of Republican John Edwards who is ready to sue someone at the drop of a hat. Both campaigns are up on the air, and both have received endorsements from national political figures.

But for a number of reasons, Rouzer seems to hold the advantage here. The most important of these is name recognition from his 2012 run. To thousands of voters across the district, Rouzer needs no introduction. The same is not true for Woody White, whose biggest hurdle is his lack of name recognition in Johnston County, a huge portion of the district which lies in the expensive Raleigh media market. In 2012, Rouzer beat his Republican primary opponent Ilario Pantano by running up the margins in Rouzer’s home county of Johnston. A Rouzer victory this year will probably follow the same pattern.

White, for his part, has tried to make geography an issue in the campaign, questioning Rouzer’s ties to the Wilmington portion of the district, and saying that the 7th district representative should be someone from southeastern NC, not the Raleigh suburbs. But voters in the Wilmington area have grown familiar with Rouzer, and will give him more support than they would otherwise, if he was a first time candidate. Still, Rouzer will have to court these voters aggressively, as he cannot afford to get blown out in the coastal portion of the district.

The winner of this primary, then, will be the person who can perform best on his opponent’s home territory. For the reasons listed above, it looks like that person is Rouzer. It might be a different story if White had started earlier or if Rouzer had not run previously. Look for Rouzer to win by a modest margin on primary night, buoyed on to victory by a crushing margin in Johnston County.

There is a third candidate in this race, Chris Andrade, so this race could technically go to a runoff. But for that to happen, Andrade would need to get over 20% of the vote, which doesn’t look likely. This one will be decided on primary night.

Democratic Primary

There is a Democratic primary here, but the nomination isn’t worth much, as McIntyre is the only Democrat who could have possibly held the 7th. The candidates are New Hanover County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield and Walter Martin, a former law enforcement officer and Town Commissioner from Johnston County. Barfield, who was running even before McIntyre retired, should win, but he will go on to lose to whoever emerges from the Rouzer/White primary.

General election

The general election will be uncompetitive. A large number of McIntyre voters will abandon the Democratic ticket and vote for whoever the Republicans nominate. Either Rouzer or White will win by at least 15 points and will have the honor of being the first Republican to represent the 7th district since 1868. Long-term, the 7th is trending Republican, due to a combination of conservative Democrats switching parties and an influx of retirees along the North Carolina coast, particularly in Brunswick County.

Counties in district: Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Cumberland, Duplin, Hoke (part), Johnston, Lenoir (part), New Hanover (part), Pender, Robeson (part), Sampson

Primary Rating: Lean Rouzer
District Rating: Solid Republican

2012 Result
Mike McIntyre (D) – 50.1%
David Rouzer (R) – 49.9%

Voter Registration
41.0% Democrat
33.4% Republican
25.4% Unaffiliated

77.0% White
17.8% Black
5.2% Other

Results in Other Elections

2012 President
59.2% Romney
39.9% Obama

2012 Governor
61.3% McCrory
36.6% Dalton

2010 Senate
61.7% Burr
36.4% Marshall

2008 Senate
48.5% Dole
48.2% Hagan