Glazier Should Be Safe in Democratic-Leaning HD-44

by | Sep 30, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, NCGA

House District 44: Rep. Rick Glazier (D) vs. Richard Button (R)

The state’s 44th House District is located in Cumberland County. Of the Fayetteville-based districts, this is the most Republican, and contains the most affluent neighborhoods. But it’s still a Democratic district, despite the best efforts of the GOP to carve out another seat for themselves.

Currently, the district is occupied by Rick Glazier, a powerful Democratic lawmaker in the House. Glazier has a liberal voting record, fighting against the legislature’s expansion of charter schools, the NCAE dues check-off bill, and the repeal of the Racial Justice Act. He has served in the State House since 2003 but Republicans consistently point to his seat as one they could pick up in the right year. This doesn’t look to be the year. Not only should legislative Democrats get a boost because of fallout from the General Assembly, but this is a fight Glazier has already won before: this year he faces the same opponent he beat by over 12 points two years ago, Republican Richard D. Button.

There hasn’t been any scandal or situation to allow Button to substantially narrow the gap, though he has surprisingly kept pace with the incumbent on the money front. The district, however, is particularly prone to Democratic dropoff in midterms – African Americans are 27% of registered voters. In the end, the unpopularity of the Republican General Assembly and the smaller midterm electorate should cancel each other out, and Glazier will probably win by a similar margin from two years ago.

Republicans might target this seat in future cycles, but this year they’re playing defense, and with the Hagan campaign mobilizing Democrats in urban counties, this would be a hard seat to win in any case. Never say never, but Glazier is exceedingly likely to be reelected to the General Assembly this November.

Map of House District 44, currently represented by Democrat Rick Glazier.

Map of House District 44, currently represented by Democrat Rick Glazier.

Counties in district: Cumberland (part)

District Rating: Likely Democratic

2012 Result
56.3% Glazier (D)
43.7% Button (R)

Voter Registration
44.5% Democratic
28.5% Republican
26.7% Unaffiliated

60.6% White
27.3% Black
12.1% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
51.7% Obama
47.5% Romney

2012 Governor
49.4% McCrory
48.2% Dalton

2010 Senate
53.3% Burr
45.1% Marshall

2008 Senate
55.1% Hagan
42.8% Dole

Social Media Support
Rep. Rick Glazier – 4,170
Richard D. Button – 114

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