I must admit I haven’t given much thought to a Hagan-Burr race for 2016. It seemed initially more like a fantasy dreamed up by Beltway insiders who don’t really understand some of the nuances of North Carolina politics. The potential strength of Kay Hagan was built upon the (erroneous, in my view) assumption that her narrow loss in 2014 was due to nothing other than the GOP wave, and that in losing she actually proved herself to be quite a formidable candidate. And that therefore, in a presidential year with strong voter turnout, a Hagan entry would automatically make the Senate race a toss-up.
That was the narrative from the Washington insiders. Then came the robo-polls from PPP, which uncovered something disturbing to Hagan fans: her favorable ratings were severely underwater, and she was trailing Burr consistently … in the most recent ones, by double-digits. It was starting to look like Democrats would be much better off with someone new, without her baggage. It took a while for the Washington insiders to catch on, but there were reports that in the meantime they were shopping around for other candidates.
Yet, the past few weeks have been good for those pining for a Hagan repeat bid. Polls from other firms besides PPP have found Hagan much closer to Burr; Elon’s found the race a pure toss-up, with Hagan actually leading in a poll of all adults. Another factor is the resiliency (a word with which Hagan supporters are familiar) of Hillary Clinton, who has weathered a number of unfavorable press stories and yet still looks strongly positioned to win the White House in 2016. With some polls showing Clinton ahead of the GOP field in North Carolina, it’s not too much of a stretch to think that she might win the state in 2016 … and bring Kay Hagan over the finish line with her.
In addition to that, why might Hagan pull the trigger? Well, she wants to get back in the game, and there’s no time like the present. Some have speculated she might run in a 2020 rematch against Tillis, who might be more vulnerable, but that’s five years from now. Who knows how the political landscape will change here by then? By that time, Hagan will be old news and there will probably be plenty of other Democrats ready for their turn.
Right now, it appears she’s still on the fence. The question – does the DSCC polling corroborate what PPP is finding, or are their findings a little more optimistic for a Hagan campaign? The answer to that question – along with her potential fundraising capability – will probably determine whether or not she jumps in, and if Democrats land their top recruit in North Carolina.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
As said I wrote my name in when she was the choice, and while it is understood that no working class man with no fortune can compete I take time to write local, national, and international judgements. Sometimes they rise to policy papers, and in general exist as letters.
Today in the interests of NC water I called the offices of NC State begging that the Chancellor get in front of as many TV cameras as he can, and tell the people that NC State has the technology to give us a great deal of natural gas from the hogs.
Since everyone loves pigs, I even said I’d VO a Pig telling us all about it.
The Propaganda Commercial on TV is a lie. Fracking ruins the water. The Petro Industrial complex doesn’t care because fossil fuels are the equivalent of gold during the gold rush and the last big veins of California when the last of the Indians were wiped out.
Hog wastes will make gas forever and provide jobs collecting and capturing it forever. Senator Hagan said nothing at all of this, developed here.
That yam for jet turbine biofuel and diesel will give the needed BTUs. It is languishing 2 thirds done.
Regardless of who does run, they will be of good if they pay attention to engineers for what is possible and not.
The Tidal Hydro systems offer a great deal of energy even with some sea level rise that will put plenty underwater by 2200.
This post needs some grammatical correction, but its content is excellent; we are drowning in hog waste and it is the primary fuel used in Southeast Asia …, absolutely brilliant mr. Day!
Hagan was very good at running from everything and anything Obama. Yet again a beltway decision built on tidal sand. I wasted lots of money and time trying to defend snf support. Fool me once your fault, fool me twice . . . Ain’t gonna happen
If Hagan is the best NC Democrats can do then there is hardly a reason to be a Democrat anymore. She lost to Tillis because she ran a cowardly campaign and horribly misjudged where she could get supporters. A complete unknown would do better than she will.
She lost to Tillis because the voting machines have been rigged to elect republikans – show me where the machine vote tabulations were verified by anything other than the vendors certification of accuracy? they were’t and legally can’t be, yet for some reason voters have been lulled into accepting machine vote counts as accurate – says who? Exit polls showed 64% of all voters polled favored an increase in the minimum wage and that indicates Tillis could not have won the election. If the people don’t demand vote paper trails we will soon be subject to absolute authoritarian republikan rule in a matter of one or two more election cycles; that is the only explanation for how the ‘pro-corporate/austerity for the people’ party keeps winning improbable elections that defy the exit poll numbers – a recent and unexplainable phenomenon which has suddenly been occurring over the last several election cycles and placing supermajorities of republikans into elected office in state after state!
“I must admit I haven’t given much thought to a Hagan-Burr race for 2016. ”
ROTFLMAO!!!! Your posts here indicate that you have been obsessed with a Hagan/Burr race in 2016.
The best candidate NCDems have to go up against Burr is the woman who lost to Tillis, the man who ran an inept and bumbling campaign? Pretty sad times for Democrats in NC…
You haven’t “given much thought to a Hagan Burr race”. Come on dude if you are going to BS us try to make it a decent pile of poop! You have banded about Hagan since November of last year as a possible 2016 Senate race. You have always led with Hagans name as a possible Democratic nominee to take on Burr. I have responded to a half dozen of those post myself. If you really expect to be taken seriously…do not insult your readers. You have pushed Hagan as much as the “beltway insiders” you deride. Most responses to those post and that speculation have consistently made it clear that Hagan would have trouble in a primary so your surprise in polling is disingenuous.
Depends on whom she’s facing in a Primary….Blue, for instance. She seriously irritated some people when she kept Obama at arms’ length last go-round. Could cost her if she tries again.