A consensus has developed among North Carolina’s leading pollsters. After months of the U.S. Senate race being in a holding pattern, Kay Hagan has retaken the lead. Hagan led throughout most of 2013 when her opponents were unknown, and especially following the legislative session, but her poll numbers plummeted after the Obamacare rollout debacle, and the race became a toss-up.
But now, Civitas is out with a new poll showing Hagan with a clear advantage. Their results are almost identical to PPP’s numbers from last week: Hagan has a strong 6-point lead, with Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh taking a respectable 9% of the vote. Hagan is in her strongest position since September/October of last year. I’m not going to delve deeper into the crosstabs of the Civitas poll, but I will make a few observations:
1. The Haugh phenomenon is real.
I was initially skeptical of Haugh’s good showing in the PPP polls. I didn’t think the Republican primary was divisive enough to produce any animosity toward Tillis on the part of conservatives. I was wrong. The poll numbers speak for themselves. Haugh’s candidacy is a problem for Tillis, and right now is where a lot of disaffected conservatives are parking their vote. Remember, a majority of Republican primary voters did not vote for Mr. Tillis. Another factor is the disgust North Carolinians have with both parties. In this environment, a third-party candidate could do better than expected.
2. Registered vs. likely voters
Most polls at this point are looking at registered, not likely, voters. Hagan’s 6-point lead here probably represents her best-case scenario. If she can replicate the Obama coalition from 2008 and 2012 and should Haugh continue to do well, then she can indeed win by such a margin. Unfortunately for Hagan, the enthusiasm gap this year strongly favors Republicans, so her lead is likely to shrink once polls start looking at people who are actually going to show up.
This should also have an effect on Mr. Haugh’s numbers. Third-party candidates tend to see their numbers fall over the course of the election, and Haugh shouldn’t be an exception. Factor in likely voters, and some Haugh voters coming into the GOP fold, and things look a little better for Tillis. And I would still be very surprised to see Haugh get 5% of the vote or more when the dust settles. Such a showing would be unprecedented for a third-party candidate in this state. Then again, this has been a year for breaking the historical mold.
3. The legislative millstone
PPP’s spin is that with the legislature back in session, Tillis is getting hurt. I don’t think that’s just spin; I think that’s the reality. Another reason for Hagan’s improved performance is that Hagan is up on the airwaves with some good ads, while Tillis and conservative organizations are letting up a little bit, under the assumption that nobody pays attention in the summer.
Since the legislature is so unpopular, and since North Carolina could be the 51st seat for Republicans, it’s in the interest of the national GOP to enable NC Republicans to tell their side of the story. Some conservative PAC somewhere should dump a few million here and flood the airwaves with ads touting the successes of the GOP legislature. Failure to do so means Tillis is going to have to fight a two-front battle: defending the legislature he runs while trying to attack Kay Hagan and the Democrats. He can’t do it alone.
4. Hagan shouldn’t win
Kay Hagan really has no business winning this race. Unlike other endangered incumbents like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana or Mark Pryor of Arkansas, she’s an unknown quantity and is completely at the mercy of the national tide, which is looking ominous for Democrats right now. From her anemic primary performance, it’s clear that Hagan = Obama to NC voters. Remember, Obama lost here by 2 points, and that was with historic turnout from African American voters and an electorate that will be extremely difficult for Hagan to replicate. She has no crossover appeal and no significant accomplishments. On paper, this seat should be the GOP’s for the taking. That it’s not is an indication that this race could indeed turn out to be a referendum on Republican control of the North Carolina legislature. If legislative Republicans fail to increase their popularity, then accidental senator Kay Hagan could find herself winning an accidental second term.
Averaging the Polls
Polls included: PPP, Civitas, Magellan
Hagan – 43%
Tillis – 39%
Haugh – 9%
Rating change: Toss-Up to Tilt Democrat
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Social issues are slowly but surely destroying the Republican party. I have Republican females in my family who insisted to me for years that the issue over birth control was nothing more than “left wing scare tactics” and that Republicans would never try and take away women’s birth control.
They completely changed their tune after yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling that was cheered by Republicans. If Republicans want to cheer about women’s birth control being taken away from them by their employer, while their male colleague sitting in the cubicle next to them can get all the viagra he wants in his insurance plan, then by all means, have at it. The gender gap in 2016 will be far worse for Republicans than it was in 2012 – and it was pretty bad in 2012, just ask the “Romney in a landslide” campaign.
This poll is not a representative sampling of NC voters. Unaffiliated voters are 27% of North Carolina but only 20% of this poll.
they both gotta stop stealing Sean Haugh’s votes http://youtu.be/Xf6nPU9zM8A
Tillis had no business running in the Republican primary. He should have run against Hagan in the Democratic primary. But honestly, I don’t think there’s any difference between the two of them anymore except they promise different things and always wind up taking more and more freedom away from me. I’m proudly voting for Haugh.
“PPP spin is”
“some conservative pac should dump few million to ” tout the GOP NC Legislature success….
“Hagan has no business winning”
I think that PPP is in the business of polling and it is your business to spin. Which is what you did so badly by trying to slant the PPP poll numbers as spin.
I am sure that more conservatives pacs will piss away money like Karl is doing, the Chamber has and AFP have done only to see Hagans poll numbers continue to rebound. The Obamacare ads are are not gonna work. As to touting the GOP legislative successes …dude, ya gotta have some first that don’t crap on the majority of the citizens of this State.
Hagan has no business winning…that was my best read….AND TILLIS DOES? ha ha ha ha
Ain’t going to happen.
Lets talk about your fear of the Libertarian candidate Haugh? Are ya afraid that that vote will not in the end go to Tillis? Be afraid dude…be very afraid.
And of course, at about October lets talk about how Tillis thinks Duke Energy…no lets talk about the entire Legislature..McCrory and Artsy Pope,think who is going to pay for all the ash clean up…every Duke customer or the company and its stockholders. Lets go on record before November …come on don’t you think the people of North Carolina ought to know that left up to the GOP running the State think they need to pony up before they vote come November?
It is a dereliction of your civic duties if you vote for the representatives of the Republican and Democrat party.
That is certainly a choice you are free to make for yourself Robert.
I however, will choose who I vote for on the basis of my conscience and who I think will best perpetuate the best course for this country and it’s people. I urge anyone and everyone who is eligible to vote, to do the same.
It is not up to me to tell anyone who to vote for or how they should vote.
The only dereliction is if the person doesn’t vote. Therein is the travesty.
North Carolina Republicans HAVE been telling their side of the story. They been shouting it loud and clear since assuming control of the Legislature and since gaining control of the Governor’s mansion.
That message? “We don’t care about any of you. We don’t care about education, we don’t care about the unemployed, we don’t care about the environment, we don’t care about the elderly or the infirm; in a word, we just don’t care about…you. But we want your vote, only if you can produce a photo identification.” “We do care about the wealthy, the affluent, and corporations since they’re owned by the wealthy and affluent.” “We’re going to change the voting districts to stack the odds in our favor in future elections. We’re going to give those affluent people who’re our friends a tax break and raise the taxes on the middle class and the electrical sales tax…just because they aren’t under enough pressure. We are going to work and make sure that wages stay low to attract those corporate friends of ours and stand by while the prices continue up on the essentials of living.” “Just remember that we’re conservatives though and we have Gods’ ear and we are his chosen people; because we say so.”
That, my good sir, is the fuel that will propel Kay Hagan to another win. We’ve seen what Thom Tillis and his partners in crime (metaphor alert) in the legislature are capable of. So have the people around the country and on the national level. Do you think that none of the stops are going to be pulled out by those that fear what Tillis is capable of on the national level? Neither do I and thank God for it!
The only thing that Tillis can paint Hagan with is Affordable Healthcare and requiring people to have health insurance. Making sure people have access to healthcare pales in comparasion to what the NCGOP has done to the people, now doesn’t it?
I agree 100%! This state is a true moderate state, and has always been known for our progression vision forward, for a southern state. This race will have nothing to do with Obama, for it will come down to state politics, deciding a national election. I am looking forward to voting for Kay Hagan again, for Tillis is absolutely horrible for NC and would likewise be a disaster to our great nation. I If Mrs. Hagan truly is getting 33-34 of whites, she has this in the bag, not to mention she would still garnish a few of the undecided whites as well. I say anyone with a heart and brain, would vote Hagan.