HD-09: Rookie Candidate, College Senior Hopes to Upset Incumbent Brown

by | Sep 3, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC House Races, NC Politics, Polling

House District 9: Rep. Brian Brown (R) vs. Uriah Ward (D)

House District 9 comprises the suburban and college sections of Greenville and also rural eastern Pitt County. Currently, it is represented by Republican Brian Brown, a businessman who is in his first term in the legislature.

Brown’s victory here came as a welcome surprise to North Carolina Republicans on Election Night 2012. Brown defeated longtime incumbent Marian McLawhorn, a moderate Democrat who was running for reelection in a redrawn district designed to be much more competitive for Republicans. McLawhorn had planned to retire, but no other Democrat wanted to run, and ultimately she filed to run again. Polls showed McLawhorn with a strong lead, but the district proved to be too red for her and Brown prevailed by 3 points.

Democrats hope this time Brown will be the victim of a similar upset. The challenger? Uriah Ward, a community organizer, activist, and undergraduate student at East Carolina University who has served as President of both the ECU College Democrats and the Young Democrats of Pitt County. If he’s elected, he’ll receive his degree in Political Science just before being sworn in to office.

But despite his age, it would be wrong to dismiss Ward’s candidacy. He’s raised some money and has support from the Democratic establishment. Secondly, this is a competitive district. It leans Republican, but in the right environment, and in the right circumstances, a Democrat can win.

Ward hopes that the unpopularity of the state legislature will yield just the right circumstances which will allow him to win. It’s anyone’s guess as to how individual Republican legislators will be affected by the last two sessions, but it’s right to be cautious. A mini-Democratic wave at the state level would probably sweep in Ward, who at 22 would become the youngest member of the legislature.

But the district numbers show Ward will have to overcome significant hurdles. While Democrats are a plurality of registered voters in this district, it’s only a 10-point edge, which in Eastern North Carolina is a recipe for a Republican victory. Previous election results testify to this: Mitt Romney won here with 55% in 2012, and Pat McCrory won with 58%. Two years before that, Richard Burr won with 61%, and even Elizabeth Dole in 2008 eked out a victory here. True, Brown’s initial victory was only won by 3 points, but that was against an established incumbent in a year with good Democratic turnout.

This is one of the few House races where we have access to polling, but it was an internal conducted by PPP on behalf of Pitt County for Ward. The poll showed Brown leading Ward, 43-36, with the incumbent largely unknown and with a 30/32 approval. Given that this was a partisan poll, take the results with a grain of salt – but the fact that the Ward campaign’s own internals show them behind should say something.

Still, this district should be kept on one’s radar. If there’s a backlash against the legislature, then Brown could fall. But don’t count on it. The uncertainty over how voters will receive the legislature’s actions puts it into the Lean Republican ranking, out of an abundance of caution.

Counties in district: Pitt (part)

District Rating: Leans Republican

2012 Result
51.5% Brown (R)
48.5% McLawhorn (D)

Voter Registration
41.2% Democrat
32.0% Republican
26.4% Unaffiliated

75.0% White
19.6% Black
5.4% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
55.3% Romney
43.8% Obama

2012 Governor
58.0% McCrory
40.0% Dalton

2010 Senate
60.6% Burr
38.2% Marshall

2008 Senate
49.8% Dole
47.9% Hagan

Social Media Support
Uriah Ward – 4,556
Rep. Brian Brown – 2,718

0 Comments

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!