House District 118: Rep. Michelle Presnell (R) vs. Commissioner Dean Hicks (D)
And so we come to our last installment of the District Geography series for the 2014 election cycle. Once again, it’s a Republican who is vulnerable. Rep. Michelle Presnell is a freshman legislator firmly in the Tea Party mold. Before her election to the House, she owned and operated a small business. Her initial victory was an upset; she defeated Rep. Ray Rapp in what was a very good year for Republicans in Western NC.
The 118th comprises most of Haywood and all of Madison and Yancey counties. It’s a swingy district. This description of Haywood County by the New York Times’ Nate Cohn applies to the entire 118th. Put briefly, the district is very socially conservative but populist to the core and white voters are even more supportive of Democrats than whites in Wake County. Most of this goes back to the days of the Civil War or to Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. Whatever its origin, Democrats have a strong base of support here to draw from and this is one of the districts they need to win if they hope to eliminate the Republicans’ veto-proof majority in the House.
Presnell is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative who is running on what she views was a kept promise to fix broken government. Challenger Dean Hicks, a Yancey County Commissioner, disagrees: he says Republicans have been a disaster for public education and for the middle class in general. That line of attack resonates in this relatively impoverished, populist district. Hicks should also benefit from not running on the same ballot as Barack Obama, who was a real millstone around the necks of Western NC Democrats running in 2012. Instead he’s running with Kay Hagan, who is much more amenable to the mountain populists than Barack Obama and should run ahead of the President here.
The incumbent probably made the most news when she said she did not condone “terrorism” when asked if she would support an Islamic prayer being said before the General Assembly. In this district, that statement is probably the least she has to worry about. Voters here are in a restless mood and don’t like anybody: not Obama, not McCrory, and not the Republican legislature. A poll released by the Civitas Institute found Presnell trailing by 12 points.
Thus, Democrats are confident in their chances of picking up this seat. But it’s not a sure thing: Presnell wasn’t expected to win two years ago and her victory then was a surprise. Though she looks like the underdog here, she could surprise again.
Counties in district: Haywood (part), Madison, Yancey
District Rating: Leans Democratic
2012 Result
51.3% Presnell (R)
48.7% Rapp (D)
Voter Registration
43.3% Democratic
31.4% Republican
25.1% Unaffiliated
97.0% White
0.9% Black
2.1% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
57.0% Romney
41.5% Obama
2012 Governor
57.6% McCrory
39.9% Dalton
2010 Senate
55.1% Burr
42.2% Marshall
2008 Senate
50.5% Hagan
45.7% Dole
Social Media Support
Dean Hicks – 268
Rep. Michelle Presnell – 152
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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