House District 53: Rep. David Lewis (R) vs. Susan Byerly (D)

In North Carolina’s 53rd House District, incumbent Republican David Lewis should be favored, which is no surprise considering he helped draw the legislative maps. The 53rd, though, isn’t really a gerrymander: it takes in most of western Harnett County and would probably be a safe Republican seat regardless of who held the power of the pen. In fact, Lewis made his own district more Democratic in the last round of redistricting, with some very conservative precincts being taken out to shore up Mike Stone in the 51st.

Harnett County, though fast-growing thanks to its proximity to both Fort Bragg and the Research Triangle, retains its rural and agricultural character. It has a high black population, which gives it a strong Democratic base. Conservative Democrats, though once plentiful in this area, are increasingly becoming a throwback to an earlier time. There is a growing Hispanic population, but this group lags behind in terms of turnout. In 2012, white voters went 80% for Mitt Romney. Harnett County is a county to watch as estimates continue to place it as one of the fastest-growing counties in North Carolina.

Map of North Carolina’s 53rd House District, currently occupied by Rep. David Lewis (R-Dunn).

Lewis, of Dunn, is a highly visible Republican who is high up in the House leadership and also a National Committeeman for the RNC. He’s been mentioned as a possible candidate for House Speaker. Besides working to defend the Republican-drawn legislative maps, he’s been a staunch advocate for the Voter ID bill. When the legislature is not in session, he is in the farm equipment business.

It’s hard to see Lewis going down this year, but this district is on the very fringe of competitiveness. In a Democratic wave on the level of 2006 and against a strong, well-funded opponent, Lewis could conceivably face a competitive race. But that’s not looking to be this year. His opponent, Susan Byerly, is a good enough candidate. She is a retired educator and former principal who currently works as Hospice Care Coordinator at Community Homecare and Hospice. But this is certainly not a Democratic wave year, and Lewis has high name recognition throughout the district given his six terms in office. As of the last financial quarter, Byerly had about $5,000 cash on hand. Lewis had over $15,000.

Lewis is running on the North Carolina General Assembly’s record on education, religious freedom, and the recently passed voter ID law. Byerly believes the state is shortchanging its children and that she will do a better job in maintaining the state’s system of public schools.

Two years ago, Lewis won by 13 points against businessman Joe Langley. He should win by more or less the same margin this time around. There’s a strong Democratic base here and getting to 45% isn’t difficult. But getting to 50% is another story. Lewis, then, or any other Republican, should be safe in this seat through the end of the decade, and probably beyond.

Counties in district: Harnett (part)

District Rating: Solid Republican

2012 Result
56.5% Lewis (R)
43.5% Langley (D)

Voter Registration
42.8% Democratic
34.5% Republican
22.3% Unaffiliated

68.6% White
24.7% Black
6.7% Unaffiliated

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
58.7% Romney
40.4% Obama

2012 Governor
60.4% McCrory
37.6% Dalton

2010 Senate
58.7% Burr
39.4% Marshall

2008 Senate
50.2% Dole
46.4% Hagan

Social Media Support
Rep. David Lewis (R) – 6,046
Susan Byerly (D) – 564

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.