House District 93: Rep. Jonathan Jordan (R) vs. Sue Counts (D)

The 93rd House District takes in Watauga and Ashe counties, way up in “High Country”. Currently, the district is represented by Jonathan Jordan, a Republican who was first elected in the red wave of 2010. Jordan won his seat by knocking off incumbent Democrat Cullie Tarleton, who returned for a rematch in 2012. Jordan also won that contest, 51.5%-48.5%.

First, an explanation of the voting patterns in this district. In the past, and especially at the local level, Ashe was a competitive county; now it’s a major source of Republican votes. Watauga is an interesting county: it can be either Republican or Democratic, depending on whether or not turnout is heavy in the college town of Boone.

In 2008, President Obama did extremely well among young voters and he carried Watauga by 6 points. Two years later, college students failed to turn out and the election results looked much different, Republican Richard Burr won it by 14 points. In 2012, Mitt Romney narrowly carried Watauga, thanks to a better performance with young voters and less enthusiasm in Boone for Obama. Even with high student turnout, as we saw in 2012, the county tilts toward Republicans. With a dropoff in student turnout, and with Ashe County added into the mix, you get a district that’s on the very fringe of competitiveness.

Jordan, the incumbent, is an attorney from Jefferson, in Ashe County. He’s running on the General Assembly record and is proud of the advances they’ve made in education, in tax reform, and in deregulation of business. He thinks that North Carolina is on the right track and voters should keep a good thing going.

The challenger is Sue Counts, former Watauga County Extension Director for the North Carolina Cooperative Extension Service, a progressive who vehemently disagrees with Jordan’s positions and the direction the General Assembly is taking the state. She says Republicans are hurting the poor and particularly disagrees with the state’s cutting unemployment benefits and refusing to expand Medicaid. She thinks a sharp change in direction is what North Carolina needs.

Jordan’s small margin of victory in 2012 and the decline in popularity of the General Assembly since then would seem to make Jordan one of the most vulnerable incumbent legislators. But most observers don’t rank HD-93 in their list of most competitive districts. The reasoning goes that if Jordan failed to go down with strong turnout in Boone in 2012 and against an opponent with high name recognition, he’s unlikely to go down in a midterm against a lesser-known opponent.

Still, this is potentially a sleeper race. And there are signs that Watauga County is going to behave more like it does in a presidential election than in a midterm this time around. The recent controversy over the Appalachian State early voting site has received a lot of attention from students, and early voting turnout there has been high. Typically, voters who feel that their right to vote is being targeted have tended to turn out more strongly. An unusually motivated App State vote would be good news for Counts, as college students tend to be overwhelmingly pro-Democrat.

But Counts is going to need a bit more than that to win. She’s also going to have to convince voters in the rest of the district, many of them avowed conservatives, to turn from their recent Republican-voting ways. Most of them aren’t inclined to do so, even with the legislature looking unpopular. Recent polls show Republicans have a generic ballot advantage, so the “legislative backlash” theory doesn’t look like it’s going to come to fruition, and a larger than expected backlash against the legislature is what Counts needs. That’s not to say that a surprise isn’t out of the question, just that it’s very unlikely. Jordan (R) probably wins a third term.

Counties in district: Ashe, Watauga

District Rating: Likely Republican

2012 Result
51.5% Jordan (R)
48.5% Tarleton (D)

Voter Registration
39.0% Republican
31.1% Democratic
29.3% Unaffiliated

95.8% White
1.3% Black
2.9% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
55.2% Romney
42.8% Obama

2012 Governor
59.4% McCrory
36.7% Dalton

2010 Senate
57.8% Burr
39.3% Marshall

2008 Senate
48.9% Hagan
46.7% Dole

Social Media Support
Sue Counts – 777
Rep. Jonathan Jordan – 725

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.