PPP’s latest poll shows that North Carolina should see a close race for president in 2016, but Hillary Clinton is looking a bit weaker than she did last month. The reason why should be obvious: the e-mail scandal which has caused many voters to remember why they don’t like her in the first place.
Clinton’s favorable rating is not that great: 39% have a positive view of her, 53% don’t. Those numbers are worse than President Obama’s in the state when he sought reelection in 2012 and could indicate that Clinton might have a tougher time putting North Carolina into play.
In replicating the Obama coalition here, Clinton faces three obstacles: one, turning out the black vote; two, exciting young people; and three, sweeping the professional vote which is dominant in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. Obama was a candidate who had unique appeal with these voters. Clinton’s coalition right now is looking slightly different. At this point it looks like she’ll do better with older, white, and blue-collar voters. This should result in her making big improvements over Obama in states like Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia – states that she’s certain to lose.
Hillary should also do better with these types of voters in North Carolina – but not much better. The region where she’d probably run strongest compared to Obama would be the Mountains. In the Piedmont, she’s going to have difficulty replicating Obama’s numbers with the suburban crowd. These folks have never liked Hillary and that’s one reason why Obama racked up huge margins in that part of the state in the 2008 primary. In the East, the challenge will be getting black voters to show up in large numbers.
Here’s what PPP says the head-to-head numbers are looking like, and Hillary’s net margin, at this very early stage:
Huckabee 48%, Clinton 43% (-5)
Walker 46%, Clinton 43% (-3)
Perry 45%, Clinton 44% (-1)
Clinton 45%, Cruz 45% (TIE)
Clinton 45%, Paul 45% (TIE)
Clinton 45%, Rubio 45% (TIE)
Clinton 45%, Bush 44% (+1)
Clinton 45%, Carson 44% (+1)
Clinton 43%, Christie 41% (+2)
Huckabee does the best against Clinton; PPP has always found North Carolinians like Huckabee. But the former Arkansas governor and Hope native is not going to be a serious candidate. Up next is Scott Walker, who leads by 3. Clinton leads Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, who does the worst against her, mostly because Republicans are not thrilled with these options.
By nominating a more generic Republican like Bush or Rubio, I definitely think the GOP would be slightly favored to keep NC red. Candidates like Cruz and Paul would be wild cards who might not wear well on the campaign trail and in that case Hillary would be more competitive. My guess though is that Hillary is going to prove to be a weaker candidate overall than Obama, not just in NC but nationally as well.
Obviously, if she’s competing in North Carolina, she’s in good shape. It’s more likely though that she’ll be fighting to keep the Obama ’12 states in her column. The most important one? Florida. That’s one state where she’s a much better fit than Obama. If she wins there, then it’s game over for Republicans. Fortunately for the GOP, there’s a pretty good chance their eventual nominee will be a Floridian, making a Hillary victory in the Sunshine State a bit less likely.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
The people will not soon forget the ‘stinging’ they took electing ‘Mr. Audacity of Hope’ in the hopes that he would reclaim the country from the lawless ravages of the Cheney/Bush corporate-profit war-mongers. Unfortunately, our supposed newly elected Demokratic president proceeded to enforce the Cheney/Bush doctrine and further abrogate what little was left of the rule of law in this country. Like Obama, Billary is a DINO and establishment insider; she will do little more than make things even worse for the citizens than they are presently. The only thing fueling the Clinton presidential bid is her constant public exposure in the media – it is called ‘brainwashing the public into believing what they know is an outright lie’, it is the sole purpose of the US. MSM today and if you don’t believe me google the father of ‘public relations management’, Eddie Bernays, and read what he has to say about it.
Amen!!!
Disgusted brought up war, and sanctions lead to war. Others have discussed policies and systems and laws. On the Democratic youtube channel there is a good presentation of the real differences between the Democrats and the Republicans. (From RT for gods sakes.)
Republicans may as well be working for the Confederate States of America having the power to “shut down the government”, and doing so. We might put up a statue of the FAA employee that worked through that shutdown.
Far as prospects for war this summer season, they are great. If you think the media in the US is a load of mind control propaganda, Russian TV is really on it.
When you have nothing but nationalism to sell, your nation is bankrupt, and war follows.
There is something insane about negotiations with Iran who themselves don’t have nuclear weapons while Russia is succeeding at Hybrid war in the Ukraine and making it real clear through provocations that they are interested in seeing if they can get away with using their nuclear weapons to do something.
Japan attacked Pearl Harbor due to sanctions, and I have no confidence Putin will resolve his disagreements with the West without more war.
It is serious enough that Civil Defense shelters ought be restocked and signed.
It’s no wonder no-one trusts Hillary. Her campaigns are all about her – not the issues. This time around we have Humble Hillary. Ha.
But, I am sad to say, she is still preferable to all the so-far announced candidates, who seem to be fools and are proud of it!
Come on down Elizabeth!!!
“The reason why should be obvious: the e-mail scandal which has caused many voters to remember why they don’t like her in the first place.”
John: And I’ll say that PPP will find HRC doing better in its next poll. She’ll get a bump from her candidacy announcement. And what you and other neo-cons call the “email scandal” will have faded into the background and/or be looked upon as what it really is—- mostly negative campaign blather by the GOP.
And don’t forget that Nov 2016 is 18 months away. Until then, NC will keep growing its voting-eligible population, mostly by way of progressive-leaning young’uns turning 18, and via the in-migration of less regressive voters from out of state. And, to be blunt, demographic, and actuarial, there will be fewer white, male, and elderly boomers (essentially the FOX News crowd) alive in NC to vote for HRC’s opponent.
HRC takes NC by 1 percentage point……
When I moved her in 2008 this state was awesome. The recent elections are so troubling I no longer urge friends to retire here. This state is becoming a nightmare.
Amen!
What would it take to get you to move back?