I think the whole e-mail controversy with Hillary Clinton has been overblown – so far – but it’s had at least a few Democrats wondering if maybe, actually, there’s a chance their nominee will be someone other than her. The problem is it’s really difficult to see someone who could realistically take her place and have a good shot at winning the general. It really points out to how weak the Democratic bench is, wiped out in the 2010 and 2014 election years.
So, I’ve decided to go over a few of the Hillary alternatives, and give my thoughts on each one. Suffice to say, I think the prospect of a Hillary-less field should terrify Democrats:
Joe Biden – Everyone likes Uncle Joe, but as Vice President, not as President. Polls show Biden doing much worse against Republicans than Clinton. He would turn purple states red and blue states purple. Plus, people want change, and a continuation of the Obama years would be a hard sell.
Gov. Martin O’Malley – O’Malley looks good on paper. Well, until last November, when he failed to get his own Lieutenant Governor, a Democrat, to succeed him in solid blue Maryland. The Democratic version of Tim Pawlenty, with a less impressive record.
Sen. Bernie Sanders – Right message (except the socialist stuff), wrong messenger. A boring old white guy. The Democrats’ version of Ron Paul, without the organization.
Former Sen. Jim Webb – Jim Webb wants to return the Democrats to being the party of working-class whites and self-described “rednecks” like himself. Yeah, good luck with that.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren – Liberals would love, love, love it if Warren got in. But she won’t. She needed a lot of convincing to run for Senate in the first place, and President is a whole different ball game. As long as Hillary is in, she’s not running, period. And, I think Warren would not be a strong candidate in the general. But her unabashed liberalism and her bringing the problem of income inequality to the forefront of the national discussion makes her Democrats’ dream candidate. Rank and file Democrats adore Hillary, but the folks who really pay attention – the true believers – have their heart on Warren.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand – Great profile, from New York, woman, solid populist liberal. But she doesn’t evoke the same kind of passion from the base as Warren does. I’m guessing it’s because Gillibrand doesn’t seem as authentic.
One name who I haven’t seen much of, who I’m puzzled isn’t the subject of more speculation: Al Franken. He’s kept a really low profile since winning his Senate seat, so maybe that’s why. If he were more outspoken, perhaps his name would come up more.
From the above list, I think the Hillary alternatives who are going to run can’t win, and those who can win aren’t running (in the general, that is). At this point, the only non-Hillary Democrat who looks set on running is Martin O’Malley. Joe Biden doesn’t look like he’s running, and both Webb and Sanders have indicated they might not have what it takes (money) to run a viable campaign. This could be the most boring Democratic primary in recent history.
As for Hillary, her problem, besides the e-mail stuff, It still appears she can’t answer why she wants to be President, which is especially important when running as the candidate of continuity. Why is she running? In other words, what’s her raison d’être? Does she even have one?
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
God how I hate that silly term DINO. For years I have laughed at Republicans and their silly RINO hunting quest for ideological purity. It has turned the Republican Party into an ever more extreme, acutely ideological clusterf*ck where rational thinking is prohibited. I have no wish to see the Democratic Party wander off into a similar swamp.
Yes, I recognize that our politics has been moving rightward for the last 35 years or so. What is currently called the “center” is well to the right of what anyone with even a bit of objectivity would imagine the center to be. But Hillary Clinton is a symptom of that problem not the cause of it. And whether or not she secures the nomination will have little effect on correcting the problem.
I believe the country would benefit from a rational and coherent conservative political party. The current iteration of the Republican Party clearly doesn’t meet that description. I also wish that the Democratic Party would articulate a liberal message and nominate a liberal candidate for president. But the problems are much deeper than any one election cycle. There is no candidate for president who will instantly put the Democratic Party back on a solid path.
I am old and boring. One of my heroes has always been Sam Rayburn. A man who some of these youngsters running around screaming about DINOs might have called a DINO. But Rayburn chaired the House Commerce Committee when the Securities and Exchange Act was passed as well as the Social Security Act and the Public Utility Holding Company Act. He held the vote open extraordinarily long so that the draft extension passed (by one vote) which was essential to our preparedness to fight World War II. Immediately after JFK was inaugurated he faced down Rules Committee Chair Howard Smith over a change in House rules that took considerable power away from Smith and the Rules Committee. Power that Smith had vowed to use to block all but a handful of bills in Kennedy’s legislative agenda.
I don’t recall the gathering of Democrats where he said it, but I have always liked this Rayburn quote: “I am a Democrat, without prefix, suffix or apology”. We need far more of that and far less of this DINO horse manure.
I predict Hillary will be the Democratic nominee and will lose the general election due to lack of Democratic enthusiasm. Republicans will retain their majorities because of low Democratic turnout. Once the GOP has all the power, in-fighting in the party will cause them to implode and Democrats will have a chance at power, but only if they get their stuff together and rally around a common theme that is easily translated to the public.
The reason the republikans are falling all over themselves to nominate Hillary as the Demokratic nominee is because they know she doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell of ever being elected president of this country on the demokratic ticket – however, she might do pretty well as the republican corporate nominee. Spend more time worrying about your own party’s nominee Mr. Wynne and we progressives will field the candidate of our choice, and it won’t be a DINO like Hillary.
While the presidency is obviously important, we do seem to overly focus on it. Part of the problem the Democratic Party has is all those voters who seem to think the President is somehow magically all powerful and can just wave his magic wand over problems and fix them all by his lonesome. Then they don’t show up at the polls in off years and complain about the president when they were complicit in creating the situation we now have by refusing to vote more than once every four years.
We have to fix that.
It’s hard to game out a scenario where Clinton doesn’t get the nomination next year. Personally, I’d prefer that we nominate a liberal. But if I were betting, I certainly wouldn’t bet against Clinton winning the nomination. So I guess I’ll have to wait a few more years for a liberal nominee.
Warren can do far more good for the country sitting in that Senate seat for a couple of decades influencing public policy than by running for president. I am getting a bit weary of every shiny new object that comes along instantly believing that they have the right stuff to be president. There ARE other centers of power in our government from which important influence can be exerted. It’s not a silly reality show. “Who wants to be President of the United States?” Warren has the maturity not to succumb to the silliness.
Your observation about Franken is spot on. He has been low key. And among all the silly showboats in Washington it is quite refreshing. Franken has avoided the national media and given his interviews to local Minnesota media outlets. He’s stuck to his knitting and paid attention to his constituents. Ironic that a former comedian is one of the most serious people in the Senate.
I do hope O’Malley runs. I like the guy and I’d like to have a place to put my vote in a primary other than Clinton. Besides, I’m a mick. We’ve only had an Irish Catholic president once before. And they shot him before he could finish his first term. After half a century maybe we could have a second one? He’s announced he isn’t running for Mikulski’s seat so I am betting he is going to get in.
Barack Obama worked so hard to establish a bipartisan atmosphere and.promote YD candidates he eliminated the mid-level bench.
No Hillary, no elected democrats nation wide. Pure and simple.
Expect to be singled out and attacked, it’s the GOP watershed moment.
Dude …nice to see you read Huffington Post. Seen a lot of your “analysis” couple days back in HP. Good to see you have a bipartisan reading regiment.