Richard Burr says he’s running again. Of course, lots of Representatives and Senators say they’re planning to run again and don’t end up doing so. Burr always has the option to change his mind. His fundraising hasn’t been stellar. With the GOP back in power in the Senate, though, Burr’s calculus might have changed and he could indeed be leaning towards running again.
But, in case Burr does decide to call it quits, the GOP has quite a few options. Let’s take a look at some of them now:
George Holding Holding was elected to Congress in 2012 and has been touted as a Senate candidate in the past. If Burr doesn’t run, Holding’s name probably shoots to the top of the list of potential Republican candidates to succeed him.
Pros: he has a down-the-line conservative record but doesn’t come across as a nut. His “cut, cut, cut” message resonates. And he’s from the expensive Triangle media market. Cons: Margin of victory in 2014 was the narrowest of any Representative from NC. Bland?
Richard Hudson Hudson was also elected 2012 and is another one considered to be a rising star. Representing a rural district in Congress, he would be able to appeal to conservative Democrats, especially in the Sandhills. But Hudson might prefer to rise in the ranks in the House instead.
Pros: Relatively young, telegenic, and doesn’t come across as a nut. Cons: “Birther” comment, insider image.
Mark Meadows If Meadows runs, he would instantly become the “Tea Party” candidate. Played a key role in the effort to defund Obamacare back in 2013.
Pros: A fresh face, not a lifelong politician. Cons: Could be depicted as too far to the right. Not from the right part of the state.
Renee Ellmers Ellmers also wanted to run in 2014. She’s been very visible and as the nominee would help to neutralize the inevitable “war on women” strategy from the Democrats.
Pros: Female, comes across as a moderate. Name recognition in Triangle media market. Cons: Immigration reform, strained relationship with the Tea Party.
Patrick McHenry McHenry is thought to still have senatorial ambitions, but would he really sacrifice a leadership position in the U.S. House to go for it?
Pros: A social conservative who appeals to both wings of the NC GOP. Longtime congressional experience. Cons: Might not be interested. Congressional service could be spun as a negative. District’s only urban area is Asheville, where he has little support. Would galvanize Elizabeth Warren fans.
Robert Pittenger Yet another GOP Congressman from the Class of 2012. Pittenger ran for Lieutenant Governor back in 2008 and may be looking at higher office. He is less likely to run than some of the other names, however.
Pros: would be able to self-fund. From the Charlotte area. Cons: Would galvanize LGBT activists against him. Will be 67 years old in 2016. Too conservative?
Phil Berger Berger wanted to run for Senate this year and might still have ambitions for higher office.
Pros: Inspiring personal story. Can appeal to working-class voters. Triad media market. Cons: Legislature could once again be albatross. Easily depicted as too far to the right? Has a beard.
Jim Cain Former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark, businessman, attorney. Has been mentioned as a potential candidate many times in the past.
Pros: Great resume, foreign policy experience, not a politician. Cons: If he really wanted to run for higher office, he probably would have done so already. Comes across as too moderate for GOP primary voters?
Steve Troxler I’ve heard his name pop up on a few occasions. Republican Commissioner of Agriculture, the first in the state’s history.
Pros: Would be able to appeal to rural voters. Elected statewide three times. Decision on guns at State Fair would appeal to moderates. Cons: No history of Ag Commissioners being elected to U.S. Senate. No guns at State Fair decision could anger gun rights advocates. Probably not interested.
Cherie Berry Elevator Lady. Commissioner of Labor.
Pros: Woman, elected statewide on multiple occasions. Face in every elevator. Name recognition. Polled well, even frontrunner before she announced she wasn’t running. Cons: Might not be interested. Hasn’t been exposed to real scrutiny. Polling probably function of pure name recognition.
Dan Forest – Lieutenant Governor. Son of Former U.S. Rep. Sue Myrick.
Pros: Appeals to both establishment and conservative wing of NC GOP. A solid conservative without coming across as a loon. “Run, Forest, Run” slogan. Cons: Is probably eyeing the Executive Mansion instead. Perhaps too socially conservative?
Greg Brannon Brannon was the runner-up in the Republican Senate primary back in May of this year and still maintains a large following with Tea Party activists in the state. Good chance that he will return again in 2016.
Pros: Not a career politician. A repeat candidate who would be able to draw from his past campaign experience to be more effective as a candidate. Able to accurately cite passages from the U.S. Constitution. Cons: None.
So as you can see, the GOP has a lot of options if Burr doesn’t run. At this point, though, I think Burr is leaning towards running for reelection. Why not? For the first time since his first two years in office, Republicans have control of the U.S. Senate. Burr is going to be chairman of the Intelligence Committee, a powerful position. His influence has never been greater.
The big question, I think, is whether or not Republicans are favored to keep the U.S. Senate in 2016. If it looks like Democrats are going to take back control, Burr might be better off ending his career on a high rather than going back to Washington and having to endure another term in the minority.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
LOL Mick I know you are right. I was trying to make the case he didn’t win by a small margin but a large one and fouled up.. thanks for straightening me out.
Does anyone get the impression the party of permanent underclass is upset?
August. Holding didn’t lose. He won. And a 15-point win against someone who never held public office in an extremely gerrymandered district is not a great showing. It was the closest NC GOP incumbent win of the midterm. Even first-timer GOP’er Rouzer won by 22. Even Ellmers won by 19 against an articulate candidate with wide name recognition.
Oh, and Chris Weaver. We do get the impression the party bought and paid for by big business, ruled by fringe extremists, and not in step with the fast-changing cultural mores of American society does not care about the “underclasses,” nor the middle class, for that matter?
You forgot the obvious choice: Art Pope.
Art Pope? Great gentleman but I don’t think he’s interested. Mitchell wont run. And I don’t think Holding lost a close race at all. 15 points according to the Board of Elections. He’s a real possibility if Senator Burr doesn’t run.
You didn’t include HEATHER GRANT, who made a very favorable impression on a lot of people in the primary. She is a veteran and could remind voters of the disaster the VA became under both Burr and Hagan. Also under Burr’s watch, the military vote was not protected. Ellmers has strained relationship with the TEA party? She is dismissive and rude to ALL her constituents and her latest bill submission, HR5673, wants us to foot the bill to reimburse the States who took DACA illegals….payback to Chamber of Commerce. She also appears to be trending to the so-called Green Movement via support to subsidizing unprofitable wind and solar initiatives at taxpayer expense. Her sell-out continues.
Can’t see Brannon running again.
Brannon should run for water and soil. He defrauded investors his goose was cooked
John, I tend to enjoy your level-headed analysis but I’m gonna have to call you out on Brannon. You say he has no cons? Get real. The guy lost a civil trial and has made some pretty outlandish comments on wingnut websites and radio. He’s the farthest to the right and weakest of any of the candidates listed.
Given the string of recent GOP victories in NC plus the fact that his party will be in the majority in 2016 I’d be very suprised if Burr didn’t run in 2016…
Yeah dude you got a real helluva list there….Holding would be First Security’s candidate that’s for sure and as for the other clowns by all means put em up.
What a roster of looneys and losers. Hey, John, why not just put Molotov Mitchell on the list, too? He’s a fruitloop, but still not a crazed as some you have noted (e.g., McHenry, Brannon).
As for Holding, yes, I think his picture is in Webster’s next to the word “bland” (cross-referenced to “innocuous,” “tepid,” “weak” and “insipid”). He had a close win vs. a Democrat who’s never held public office before, and, given his district’s extreme gerrymandering, was able to pretty much hide (he refused to debate) during that campaign and still win. He wouldn’t be able to do that in a Senate run, and would come off for what he is — a not-very-bright, lock-stepping-with-the-Boehner-and-McConnell, unexciting, arch-conservative banker.
Hey, on second thought, I kinda like Holding as a Senate candidate. He’s a lot like Burr, with even less brains, lower profile, and lack of charisma, and, as such, would stand a good chance of losing.