Tomorrow, North Carolina is holding runoff elections, technically the second primary elections. Just think. Had Thom Tillis not eclipsed 40% two months ago, he would have been engaged in a heated runoff battle with Greg Brannon and the most fired-up conservative activists would be storming the polls while everyone else enjoyed the beach.

Instead, Tillis dodged a major bullet. And even without having to deal with a runoff, the conventional wisdom is the last few weeks have been pretty good for Kay Hagan. The legislative session has gone on much longer than anticipated, and Hagan leads in the polls by an average of about 3 points. I’m still convinced that lead will evaporate after voters awaken from their summer slumber, but right now she appears to be in good shape.

Just imagine, then, if Tillis had to go through a runoff tomorrow. His campaign funds would be even more depleted than they are now. He would have to take more far-right positions to hold on to his conservative flank. And the divisive runoff would have made it tough for conservatives to rally around Tillis, if indeed he emerged the victor.

Because I think Greg Brannon could have pulled it off. The political calculus of these primary battles has changed in the past two months. Eric Cantor was felled by an immigration hard-liner. And conservatives are angry after Thad Cochran eked out a narrow victory on the backs of Democratic voters. They believe the election was stolen from them and Tea Party types are ready to punish the nearest establishment candidate they see. I think in the end, in a low-turnout contest brewing with conservative anger, they would have delivered it for Brannon.

So, even though the last few weeks haven’t been the best ones of the campaign for Thom Tillis, things could be much, much worse for him. But as it is, he’s still primed to take advantage of the unpopular Obama-Hagan record. Last Friday I wrote the headline that Kay Hagan is toast. I was going to title it something else but changed it at the last minute. The result was a provocative, and inaccurate, headline. The truth is, Hagan isn’t toast. Far from it. But she’s in the toaster. It’s time for Tillis to get this legislative session wrapped up and hit the lever.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.